Buying the Moron's BJ

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ortango

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
Gotta question for you guys. A guy gets a blackjack with a $100, and the dealer shows an A and of course the even money gets offered. The goofball wants even money, despite the odds.

Now here's my question. What if I immediately offered to buy his hand for $101?
With an even count, buying it at $103 is $1 in my odds, so it would make sense for me too right? And even more benefitial if the count is low. So this seems like a good thing to do. My biggest concern is the possible heat, or the house looking unfavorably at this, or maybe a miscalculation on my part? Also has anyone tried this?
 
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shadroch

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
If you did it once,you'd kind of be commited to doing it every time the situation arose with that player,even in very negative counts,or you'd really attract attention,unless the guy is a total sphinx and never questions ehy you'll buy some hands but not others,I would think.If you are just doing a fly-by,go for it.
 
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ScottH

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
shadroch said:
If you did it once,you'd kind of be commited to doing it every time the situation arose with that player,even in very negative counts,or you'd really attract attention,unless the guy is a total sphinx and never questions ehy you'll buy some hands but not others,I would think.If you are just doing a fly-by,go for it.
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I don't think you would need to feel comitted to doing it evertime just because it would look odd buying it sometimes and not others. It's the same way with insurance, sometimes you take it and sometimes you dont. It doesnt really attract that much attention, gamblers play on "hunches" all the time.
 
Brutus

Brutus

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
For a buck?

my opinion is that it is annoying. its bad enough to sit at a table where some boob is offering unsolicited advice, or even worse scolding other players for their decisions, but to buy their hands?
your drawing too much attention to yourself for one dollar ev.
just my opinion
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
ScottH said:
I don't think you would need to feel comitted to doing it evertime just because it would look odd buying it sometimes and not others. It's the same way with insurance, sometimes you take it and sometimes you dont. It doesnt really attract that much attention, gamblers play on "hunches" all the time.
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i agree with you on the point Scott. i do however think that an astute pit is vaguely suspicious of players taking the insurance bet. hey i've never done it or seen it done but i wonder if a joint would allow a player to buy another players right to an insurance bet? now that would look suspicious if say one guy bought about five or six other players insurance rights. i guess that would be a good buy though? could potentialy push you up over your max bet for a round though i guess?

best regards,
mr fr0g :D
 
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ortango

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
Yeah, I can see it being somewhat suspicious, but I think if you get some good lines in like "There is no way the dealer has a blackjack under there, cuz he already had too many!" or some voodoo mumbo jumbo, and then buy it, no one will care. I cant see the player caring because he was just about to take even money, and is getting an extra buck. I suppose an astute PB will notice right away, especially if they already had an eye on you. But fly by would be fine I guess.
 
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ScottH

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
sagefr0g said:
i agree with you on the point Scott. i do however think that an astute pit is vaguely suspicious of players taking the insurance bet. hey i've never done it or seen it done but i wonder if a joint would allow a player to buy another players right to an insurance bet? now that would look suspicious if say one guy bought about five or six other players insurance rights. i guess that would be a good buy though? could potentialy push you up over your max bet for a round though i guess?

best regards,
mr fr0g :D
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I wouldn't push it as far as taking other people's insurance. But if you use a few superstitious lines for your own sake like, "I think you have it this time." you should be fine.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
ScottH said:
I wouldn't push it as far as taking other people's insurance. But if you use a few superstitious lines for your own sake like, "I think you have it this time." you should be fine.
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yeah, wisdom would be the better part of valor on that play.... the taking of other folks insurance i mean.

best regards,
mr fr0g :D
 
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Matt

Active Member
#9
#9
ortango said:
Gotta question for you guys. A guy gets a blackjack with a $100, and the dealer shows an A and of course the even money gets offered. The goofball wants even money, despite the odds.
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Since the true value of a $100 blackjack vs. an Ace is $104 I wouldn't have a problem taking even money, because I typically don't bet w/ black chips.

I think the bigger goofball is the one trying to buy a hand for $3 dollar EV.
 
O

ortango

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
Matt said:
Since the true value of a $100 blackjack vs. an Ace is $104 I wouldn't have a problem taking even money, because I typically don't bet w/ black chips.

I think the bigger goofball is the one trying to buy a hand for $3 dollar EV.
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I don't see how this could be a bad play. 3 dollar advantage and much more if the count is low. Wouldn't that be to the AP's extreme advantage?

Wait.. you just said you would take even money. I guess I shouldn't be asking you, since only losing players take even money on an even count (no offense).
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
Matt said:
Since the true value of a $100 blackjack vs. an Ace is $104 I wouldn't have a problem taking even money, because I typically don't bet w/ black chips.

I think the bigger goofball is the one trying to buy a hand for $3 dollar EV.
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sorry i can't understand Matt. how would you have $100 in the bet circle if you don't bet that high? Ortango's point was a hypothetical situation. you need to put your self in the hypothetical situation inorder to properly evaluate the question don't you Matt?


best regards,
mr fr0g :D
 
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ScottH

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
ortango said:
I don't see how this could be a bad play. 3 dollar advantage and much more if the count is low. Wouldn't that be to the AP's extreme advantage?

Wait.. you just said you would take even money. I guess I shouldn't be asking you, since only losing players take even money on an even count (no offense).
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The point he was trying to make is your EV isn't that high to take on the extra risk. UNLESS your BR is big enough to handle it... then go for it.
 
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Matt

Active Member
#13
#13
ortango said:
Wait.. you just said you would take even money. I guess I shouldn't be asking you, since only losing players take even money on an even count (no offense).
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If you're flat betting black chips sure, don't take even money.

There's a good chapter in Snyder's The Big Book of Blackjack explaining the true value of a blackjack vs an A. Although mathematically it may be a bad play, assuming you have a max bet out and a limited bankroll, like most of do. Even money is a good bet. Anything to cut down on negative flux.
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
Matt said:
If you're flat betting black chips sure, don't take even money.

There's a good chapter in Snyder's The Big Book of Blackjack explaining the true value of a blackjack vs an A. Although mathematically it may be a bad play, assuming you have a max bet out and a limited bankroll, like most of do. Even money is a good bet. Anything to cut down on negative flux.
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maybe i need to get The Big Book of Blackjack or hopefully you can explain this. the only time i know of that it would be the right move to take even money on your blackjack regardless the size of your bet (assumming you have bet optimaly) is when the count justifies taking insurance. thats the proper approach unless i'm missing something here.

best regards,
mr fr0g :D
 
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Matt

Active Member
#15
#15
Snyder goes on to explain how the professional gambler thinks of even money. I've re-written it quickly to explain.

"When he has been dealt a $1000 BJ and the dealer shows an A up, Since 4 of every 13 cards in a deck is a 10, then 4/13ths of the time you get paid zero instead of $1500. 1/13th of $1500 = $115 x 4 = $460. $1500 - $460 = $1040. Assuming no other count info, his hand dollar value is $1040.

Most of the time, most pros will think, "I have a hand here that has a value of $1040. The dealer is offering me $1000 for it because the house wants to screw me out of $40. I'm not going to take the offer".

But do all pros think this way? No. By taking even money, a pro knows he can "lock in" a $1000 win. If he holds out for the extra $40, he increases both his risk and his fluctuations. He has to weigh the value of these factors based on the size of his bankroll and what that locked-in $1000 might mean to his overall financial position.

Also, the reason the pro had a $1000 bet on the table in the first place is often because his count dictated to place a bigger bet, in such case there is a higher probability the dealer has a 10 in the hole, and the value of the players blackjack might not be $1040, but only $1020 or $1002. Is it worth risking a locked-in $1000 payout to try for an extra $2, No. Not unless you're sitting on a million-dollar bankroll and you can afford huge fluctuations"

Although his example is for a thousand dollar bet I think the same theory applies to anyones big bet. I'm glad I read this and would be curious to here other players opinions on this.
 
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ScottH

Well-Known Member
#16
#16
Matt said:
Snyder goes on to explain how the professional gambler thinks of even money. I've re-written it quickly to explain.

"When he has been dealt a $1000 BJ and the dealer shows an A up, Since 4 of every 13 cards in a deck is a 10, then 4/13ths of the time you get paid zero instead of $1500. 1/13th of $1500 = $115 x 4 = $460. $1500 - $460 = $1040. Assuming no other count info, his hand dollar value is $1040.

Most of the time, most pros will think, "I have a hand here that has a value of $1040. The dealer is offering me $1000 for it because the house wants to screw me out of $40. I'm not going to take the offer".

But do all pros think this way? No. By taking even money, a pro knows he can "lock in" a $1000 win. If he holds out for the extra $40, he increases both his risk and his fluctuations. He has to weigh the value of these factors based on the size of his bankroll and what that locked-in $1000 might mean to his overall financial position.

Also, the reason the pro had a $1000 bet on the table in the first place is often because his count dictated to place a bigger bet, in such case there is a higher probability the dealer has a 10 in the hole, and the value of the players blackjack might not be $1040, but only $1020 or $1002. Is it worth risking a locked-in $1000 payout to try for an extra $2, No. Not unless you're sitting on a million-dollar bankroll and you can afford huge fluctuations"

Although his example is for a thousand dollar bet I think the same theory applies to anyones big bet. I'm glad I read this and would be curious to here other players opinions on this.
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On the other hand, if the player had the 1000 dollar bet it is assumed that his bankroll can handle the fluctuations, otherwise he is overbetting and shouldn't have placed it.

It's just like getting to your index for 9 vs 2 with a max bet out. You can say its not worth the extra risk, but you should make the double down anyway since you're at your index. Insurance IS an index, and should only be taken when you reach it. If you try to justify taking even money when you shouldn't because of risk, then you are probably overbetting. The only reason I can ever think of that justifies even money is for cover, and that's it.
 
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ScottH

Well-Known Member
#17
#17
If you want another way of seeing how it's dumb to insure a blackjack, think about this.

Let's say there is a guy who always insures his blackjacks. Then another guy says he always insures his 10,3. The second guy seems like a moron for only insuring his hands consisting of a 10 and a 3, but there is NO difference between the two players. You get a 10,3 just as often as you do a blackjack, and the insurance bet on both hands is just as bad, so both players' EV will be the same.

So if you're the type of player who insures their blackjacks, you better not give anyone else any grief for insuring ANY of their hands, because the EV for insurance is the same regardless of whether you have a blackjack or a 10,3 or anything for that matter.
 
ihate17

ihate17

Well-Known Member
#18
#18
Arnold took too much for granted

Matt said:
If you're flat betting black chips sure, don't take even money.

There's a good chapter in Snyder's The Big Book of Blackjack explaining the true value of a blackjack vs an A. Although mathematically it may be a bad play, assuming you have a max bet out and a limited bankroll, like most of do. Even money is a good bet. Anything to cut down on negative flux.
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Arnold Snyder took it for granted that his readers would understand that when you have a max bet out that would mean the indice would call for taking even money or insurance. With a true count of over +3 in high low you should be taking even money, so in my opinion (did not consult Mr Snyder), max bet means loads of high cards and you take even money.

To the casino: you want them to believe you are a gambler, bet $100 and you will take your chances against the dealer ace. Bet $1,000 and you are nervous and want to be paid for sure.

ihate17
 
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ScottH

Well-Known Member
#19
#19
ihate17 said:
Arnold Snyder took it for granted that his readers would understand that when you have a max bet out that would mean the indice would call for taking even money or insurance. With a true count of over +3 in high low you should be taking even money, so in my opinion (did not consult Mr Snyder), max bet means loads of high cards and you take even money.

To the casino: you want them to believe you are a gambler, bet $100 and you will take your chances against the dealer ace. Bet $1,000 and you are nervous and want to be paid for sure.

ihate17
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When you place a max bet you would probably be at the index for insurance, but the count can and probably will drop during that round, which could mean the count drops below the insurance index. So the amount of the bet isnt really a good indication of when to take even money or not.
 
O

ortango

Well-Known Member
#20
#20
Guys, remember the situation is that we are jumping in another's persons bet, and assuming the count is low (even less chance of his BJ) I agree that at times your BR cannot handle the possible fluctuation, and it is a good argument in certain situations.

One of the key attributes of losing players is the tendancy to fear doing the right thing due to certain situations. Such as 'not doubling because they lost the last 3 doubles' or 'playing it safe cuz they got burned the 5 times they hit 12 on 2'. We all know the odds and you have to play it right to be a winner. Say you are playing green chips, and end up splitting and doubling twice for $100. Of course you will do it because that is how the player gains advantage over the dealer... splits, doubles, BJs.

Or how about this? You have five $20 dollar bets in a row and are guaranteed 3% or more advantage on each hand. You would be crazy not to take that right?
 
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