KewlJ said:
And now a couple of my own thoughts on things said in this thread.
Number of card counters: I don't track my play by hours, I track by an estimate of rounds played. And I play roughly 80,000 rounds a year. Using the traditional 100 rounds per hours that would be 800 hours, but I don't come close to 100 rounds per hour....not on average. I play short sessions and exit aggressively on negative counts. Even sometimes tracking a second table and jumping immediately to a new game, I probably average 50 rounds an hour when all the moving around and traveling to the next casino is added in. So that would be 1600 hours a year. I wouldn't be surprised if it is even more. Both these numbers 800 and 1600 hours (or even more) are surely greater than most professional players play.
And in all that time, now finishing my 15th year, and 10th in Vegas, I probably see 3-5 card counters a year playing my level (green to mid black), or higher. I see a larger number playing red chip level at some of the lower limit tables that I am forced to play. But reasonable money....not many.
Next: I want to respond to the comment about splitting 10's being "valuable" to the blackchipper. On paper..yes. That includes simulations. It looks like significant value. But one of the most important things....maybe the single most important thing that my experience has taught me, is that most pit people aren't as smart as we think they are. Most are just working folks doing their job and they aren't as knowledgeable about card counters as maybe pit folks once were when they were players or former players themselves. There are really like 3-4 things pit people today are looking for.
1.) of course a spread. But a spread itself doesn't mean much. Many players vary bets. It is the retreating back to the small wager that is the give-away.
2.) A very small number of plays, played differently. 16 vs 10 (which happens to be the most common hand if I am not mistaken), Insuring a blackjack, and splitting 10's. These 3 plays are really the ones that pit people know that card counters play differently at different times. Sharp pit people may look at 12 vs 2 or 3 as well, but it is those initial 3 that signal card counter to most pit people.
You will note that the often talked about splitting 10's is among them. To me, any discussion of their value has to be measured against the big tell that it is. That momentary "value" has to be measured against longevity and the ability of many future hours. When you include that, it becomes not so "valuable".
And by the way, all 3 of these common things that almost all pit people know to look for can be taken care of by playing card counter's basic strategy and not varying how these hands are played.
Number of card counters: I don't track my play by hours, I track by an estimate of rounds played. And I play roughly 80,000 rounds a year. Using the traditional 100 rounds per hours that would be 800 hours, but I don't come close to 100 rounds per hour....not on average. I play short sessions and exit aggressively on negative counts. Even sometimes tracking a second table and jumping immediately to a new game, I probably average 50 rounds an hour when all the moving around and traveling to the next casino is added in. So that would be 1600 hours a year. I wouldn't be surprised if it is even more. Both these numbers 800 and 1600 hours (or even more) are surely greater than most professional players play.
And in all that time, now finishing my 15th year, and 10th in Vegas, I probably see 3-5 card counters a year playing my level (green to mid black), or higher. I see a larger number playing red chip level at some of the lower limit tables that I am forced to play. But reasonable money....not many.
Next: I want to respond to the comment about splitting 10's being "valuable" to the blackchipper. On paper..yes. That includes simulations. It looks like significant value. But one of the most important things....maybe the single most important thing that my experience has taught me, is that most pit people aren't as smart as we think they are. Most are just working folks doing their job and they aren't as knowledgeable about card counters as maybe pit folks once were when they were players or former players themselves. There are really like 3-4 things pit people today are looking for.
1.) of course a spread. But a spread itself doesn't mean much. Many players vary bets. It is the retreating back to the small wager that is the give-away.
2.) A very small number of plays, played differently. 16 vs 10 (which happens to be the most common hand if I am not mistaken), Insuring a blackjack, and splitting 10's. These 3 plays are really the ones that pit people know that card counters play differently at different times. Sharp pit people may look at 12 vs 2 or 3 as well, but it is those initial 3 that signal card counter to most pit people.
You will note that the often talked about splitting 10's is among them. To me, any discussion of their value has to be measured against the big tell that it is. That momentary "value" has to be measured against longevity and the ability of many future hours. When you include that, it becomes not so "valuable".
And by the way, all 3 of these common things that almost all pit people know to look for can be taken care of by playing card counter's basic strategy and not varying how these hands are played.
