Correct way to determine wong-out point

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euphdude

Member
#1
#1
Hey Folks,

I've been in the process of creating a new strategy. It is based off of the RPC-lite strategy as described on Norm Wattenberger's QFIT.com site. One of the key ways it differs from the RPC is that you true count per WHOLE DECK. I've created myself a set of indices and have determined what I think is a good compromise betting ramp. My question is: What would be the best way to determine an optimal wong-out point?

How is this for a first guess: Find the point where your negative EV is comparable to a known wong-out point in another strategy. If you consider the Hi-Lo's wong-out point of -1 true, find its average EV at that point (according to CVCX it is -1.6% at -1 TC) then I determined that a similar negative EV would occur at a RPC TC of -2. Is this a reasonable way to approach this or am I missing something?
 
E

euphdude

Member
#3
#3
DS just answered it

Thanks. I had posted this question over there several days ago and Don just answered it today. He essentially said that as a first approximation, I can double hi-lo's indices to get what I want in my unique version of the RPC using count per whole decks. Therefore, I'd use -2 as a Wong-Out point, which is actually consistent with what I had guessed in comparing the negative EVs.

Thanks again for your help.
 
Automatic Monkey

Automatic Monkey

Banned
#4
#4
That's correct

You Wong out because your advantage is too negative, so simulating your advantage is a great way to transfer it from system to system.

Exactly where is "optimum" depends on a few other things. In an idealized casino where there is always another shoe starting, the ideal Wong-out point is at any negative count at all. In the real-world, you have to consider where you are going to Wong in to when you Wong out. If you're towards the end of a shoe you can always Wong to the bathroom, but you have to consider the possibility of bringing heat on yourself by doing that excessively. If you are Wonging-around from table to table, and you've got a dealer in front of you who is giving exceptionally good penetration, you have to consider the possibility that you might not be able to get back on this table if you leave, and it is better to play-all with good pen than to Wong-around in a mire of crappy pen.
 
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