Courting the climbing count

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#1
It seems like the times I lose the worst is when the count rises up to a max bet level and just keeps climbing. When I was a gambler is used to steam and bet too much. Now I am making the proper bet but these monster climbing counts quite often bite me bad. Do you have any bad memories of climbing counts that cause you to alter your play or do you just play more or less robot style?
 

paymypush

Well-Known Member
#2
I have lost several max bets in a row many times. I would call it part of the game rather than bad memories. I keep playing as long as I have an advantage and would never alter my play. That's why it is imperative to be properly bankrolled. Altering play because of past results should never enter your mind.

In those high counts you are looking for more blackjacks, double downs and splits while utilizing your index play. You won't win all that many more hands but you just need some of the big ones. When the count keeps rising after max bet is out you will also see an increase in pushes.

Are you playing shoes or something else? How many others at the table? When the count skyrockets you don't want to be sharing those good cards with others.
 

BJgenius007

Well-Known Member
#3
Dopple said:
It seems like the times I lose the worst is when the count rises up to a max bet level and just keeps climbing. When I was a gambler is used to steam and bet too much. Now I am making the proper bet but these monster climbing counts quite often bite me bad. Do you have any bad memories of climbing counts that cause you to alter your play or do you just play more or less robot style?
One of the technique to combat beast mode ASM is to reduce bet spread while TC is climbing. This will reduce EV so to compensate, you may increase your bet while TC is falling. This needs AP to play at the table with more players so he or she can see if TC is climbing or falling clearly.

For example, the bet spread is 4, 8, 12, 16, 18 at hand shuffled BJ game., corresponding to the advantage points 0.5%, 1%, 1.5%, 2% and 2.5%. (I don't list TC because different counting systems have different TC points on these advantages.) When you suspect ASM is running in clumping mode, your spread should be reduced to 2, 4, 6, 8, 10. If you can accept lower ev as the result to combat suspected ASM clumping, you don't have to increase spread when TC is falling. But if you want to maintain your level of earnings, your spread shall be increase to 6, 12, 18, 18, 18. (This assume AP uses standard 1 to 18 spread at a shoe game. as many casinos think this spread is modest for a shoe game, not exceeding the thread 20.)

The reason for the adjustment is because TC is climbing when in small card clump and TC is falling when in face card clump. Also AP should train himself to see if there is the sign of clumping after playing 1.5 decks out of 6. The sign is of 20 card sequence, if there is more than 12 cards belonging to the same type of clump (face, small or middle card), you should be alerted. The middle card clump is the most easily to spot because they only contain 8 or 9. If you have this in mind and looking for the pattern, very often, you can see 12 to 14 middle cards out of a 20 card sequence at some casinos using ASM but rarely at their hand shuffled games. This is the most clear sign of clumping because there are only 48 middle cards in the six deck shoe. If you see small card or face clump, you just stay suspicious and keep looking for more evidences even all these are circumstantial. (Middle card clumping is the more solid confirmation.)
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#5
paymypush said:
When the count keeps rising after max bet is out you will also see an increase in pushes.
You will see an increase in pushes when an already high true count is falling, not rising.
 

paymypush

Well-Known Member
#6
BoSox said:
You will see an increase in pushes when an already high true count is falling, not rising.
There is some good literature and articles that may help you understand this. Try the charts from BlackjackinColor.
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#7
paymypush said:
When the count keeps rising after max bet is out you will also see an increase in pushes.
BoSox said:
You will see an increase in pushes when an already high true count is falling, not rising.
paymypush said:
There is some good literature and articles that may help you understand this. Try the charts from BlackjackinColor.
I stand by my above quote. Don S, could you further explain the logic behind these examples?
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#9
BoSox said:
I stand by my above quote. Don S, could you further explain the logic behind these examples?
Clearly, the statement that you will see an increase in pushes as the RC rises is incorrect. An increase in RC indicates a disproportionate amount of small cards coming out. That isn't what causes increased pushes. The latter occurs in very high RCs that start to decrease, due to the excess number of tens appearing. Those 20-20 ties raise the percentage of pushes from the normal 8.9% to well over 10%.

Don
 

paymypush

Well-Known Member
#13
DSchles said:
Clearly, the statement that you will see an increase in pushes as the RC rises is incorrect. An increase in RC indicates a disproportionate amount of small cards coming out. That isn't what causes increased pushes. The latter occurs in very high RCs that start to decrease, due to the excess number of tens appearing. Those 20-20 ties raise the percentage of pushes from the normal 8.9% to well over 10%.

Don
Thank you, Don. I was sure I was right. Then I looked up the BlackjackinColor chart and was even more sure. The blue line on the chart (pushes) clearly shows an increase at the higher counts. Does my confusion stem from the fact that falling counts are not mentioned on the charts? This 'misinformation' has been in my head for a long time so thanks again.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#14
paymypush said:
Thank you, Don. I was sure I was right. Then I looked up the BlackjackinColor chart and was even more sure. The blue line on the chart (pushes) clearly shows an increase at the higher counts. Does my confusion stem from the fact that falling counts are not mentioned on the charts? This 'misinformation' has been in my head for a long time so thanks again.
There ARE more pushes in a higher-count regime, but that's when you've already gotten there, not when you're getting there! Do you understand the difference?

Finally, people are throwing around the terms "rising TC" and "falling TC" when they mean "rising RC" and "falling RC." There is no tendency for a high TC to drop or for a low TC to rise. The TC doesn't tend towards anything; rather it's the RC that tends toward zero.

Don
 

paymypush

Well-Known Member
#15
DSchles said:
There ARE more pushes in a higher-count regime, but that's when you've already gotten there, not when you're getting there! Do you understand the difference?

Finally, people are throwing around the terms "rising TC" and "falling TC" when they mean "rising RC" and "falling RC." There is no tendency for a high TC to drop or for a low TC to rise. The TC doesn't tend towards anything; rather it's the RC that tends toward zero.

Don
Yes, I understand now and I'll be more careful while posting in the future.

BoSox, sorry for the snotty post but sometimes you rub me the wrong way. That's my problem, not yours. Peace.
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#16
paymypush said:
BoSox, sorry for the snotty post but sometimes you rub me the wrong way. That's my problem, not yours. Peace.
I agree with peace. Sometimes I do get rude with posters which I am sorry for.
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#17
DSchles said:
Finally, people are throwing around the terms "rising TC" and "falling TC" when they mean "rising RC" and "falling RC." There is no tendency for a high TC to drop or for a low TC to rise. The TC doesn't tend towards anything; rather it's the RC that tends toward zero.
Thank you for pointing that out, since I should know better than that because I have heard you say it more than a few times over the years.
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#18
21forme said:
^^^Ignore anything this idiot says.
21forme, you have played blackjack a long time now, do you think that you could spot when something is not right over an extended period of time? I am willing to bet that you could do that if you saw it. BJGenius007, has also played a long time and like you has plenty of life experience playing blackjack to know when something is wrong. Otherwise, he would not be that adamant about it.
 

21forme

Well-Known Member
#19
BoSox said:
21forme, you have played blackjack a long time now, do you think that you could spot when something is not right over an extended period of time? I am willing to bet that you could do that if you saw it. BJGenius007, has also played a long time and like you has plenty of life experience playing blackjack to know when something is wrong. Otherwise, he would not be that adamant about it.
Bosox, you've been drinking too much of the Genius' koolaid.

About a year ago, I was watching some BJ at a sketchy international casino. The cards were coming out like a Spanish deck and every shoe ended with a highly positive RC. So yes, that was detectable.

Recently, I was playing BJ and 5 aces came out in a row. Is there anything wrong with that? Probably not.

The Genius has been posting a long time and everything he writes is idiocy. I've detected that pattern, too.
 
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