cover for Max bet at End of shoe? what next?

[Midwestern]

what do you guys do after a very favorable shoe when your max bet has been out a few times?

how do you gracefully reduce your bet back to the beginning of your bet ramp without attracting too much heat?

i think an abrupt reduction back down to one unit would look especially suspicious after winning a few max bet hands at the end of a shoe. in fact, it just screams AP-- to dealers, others at the table, and PBs.

any advice on how to masterfully do this?

 

[blackjack avenger]

Variables & Ideas

Some variables:

Is the pit watching
Are you getting heat
Did you win or lose
What are others betting at your table
what are others betting at other tables
How big was your top bets
How big is your overall spread

Some ideas:

One can cut their top bet by half
One can place the top bet over 2 hands
"Let's see how this shoe goes" while dropping bet
One can go to bathroom, phone, another pit, another casino
If available, one can go to another bj game with a lower off the top negative EV

 

[swamper]

I normally leave if I have put max bets out towards the end of a shoe regardless of the results of that session.

 

[Midwestern]

Some variables:

Is the pit watching
Are you getting heat
Did you win or lose
What are others betting at your table
what are others betting at other tables
How big was your top bets
How big is your overall spread

EV

assume the following:
spreading 1-20 at a $5 table
no heat yet from pit
assume others at table are betting 5-30 and are winning. ( assume a very lively and fun table)

i just think that pulling back a max bet and backing it down to min table bet (although a wise financial decision from risk perspective) would be too much of a debbie downer and would be a dead giveaway of AP

 

[kewljason]

Some variables:

Is the pit watching
Are you getting heat
Did you win or lose
What are others betting at your table
what are others betting at other tables
How big was your top bets
How big is your overall spread

Some ideas:

One can cut their top bet by half
One can place the top bet over 2 hands
"Let's see how this shoe goes" while dropping bet
One can go to bathroom, phone, another pit, another casino
If available, one can go to another bj game with a lower off the top negative EV

Good advice, Avenger, but you missed one. You can leave at the shuffle. I leave every time at the shuffle after having not only max bet out but any larger wager. I never let them see me reduce my wager. At least not back to the beginning. I may reduce a bit during a shoe as the count falls, but I will not let them see me go from any high bet back to my base bet or waiting (small) wager, and I am too cheap to employ some of the covers you mentioned. With this method, they only see my wagers going one way. Can they really determine if I am betting with the count or steaming (if losing) or parlaying (if winning). Especially hard to distinguish when playing short sessions.

 

[swamper]

Good advice, Avenger, but you missed one. You can leave at the shuffle. I leave every time at the shuffle after having not only max bet out but any larger wager. I never let them see me reduce my wager. At least not back to the beginning. I may reduce a bit during a shoe as the count falls, but I will not let them see me go from any high bet back to my base bet or waiting (small) wager, and I am too cheap to employ some of the covers you mentioned. With this method, they only see my wagers going one way. Can they really determine if I am betting with the count or steaming (if losing) or parlaying (if winning). Especially hard to distinguish when playing short sessions.

Yes, great advice Kewl, this is exactly what I do too. At the shuffle I am done after max bets. I also keep my sessions short.

 

[ohbehave]

Handy having several dozen stores nearby huh?
But seriously KJ does that strategy lead to frequently playing only 1 shoe then heading for the door? (not that there's anything wrong with that. I think its probably the only way a grinder can survive)

 

[kewljason]

Handy having several dozen stores nearby huh?
But seriously KJ does that strategy lead to frequently playing only 1 shoe then heading for the door? (not that there's anything wrong with that. I think its probably the only way a grinder can survive)

Yes very much so. Combined with my other strategy of exiting negative counts, 2 shoes is a long session for me. :laugh: And you are correct that hit and run really only works if you are in a location with at least several nearby casinos. If it's a half hour drive to nearest casino, you gotta come up with something different.

 

[Midwestern]

Yes very much so. Combined with my other strategy of exiting negative counts, 2 shoes is a long session for me. :laugh: And you are correct that hit and run really only works if you are in a location with at least several nearby casinos. If it's a half hour drive to nearest casino, you gotta come up with something different.

yep, exactly my scenario

one casino, only game in town, and its the closest casino for hours.

and problem with switching to another table is that there are so many local ploppies that the game goes unbearably slow at those other tables and its tough to walk away from a good table with other fast players!

 

[21forme]

When a shoe ends with max bet, take a break - phone call, bathroom, etc. It's natural to start betting low after that. If your casino is large, with more than one BJ pit, head to the other pit.

 

[BJgenius007]

what do you guys do after a very favorable shoe when your max bet has been out a few times?

how do you gracefully reduce your bet back to the beginning of your bet ramp without attracting too much heat?

i think an abrupt reduction back down to one unit would look especially suspicious after winning a few max bet hands at the end of a shoe. in fact, it just screams AP-- to dealers, others at the table, and PBs.

any advice on how to masterfully do this?

There is only one RIGHT thing to do:

LEAVE.

If you really don't want to leave, ask to save the seat for you and take a LONG rest room break.

Come back and don't bet the minimal.

 

[Craps Master]

Good advice, Avenger, but you missed one. You can leave at the shuffle. I leave every time at the shuffle after having not only max bet out but any larger wager. I never let them see me reduce my wager. At least not back to the beginning. I may reduce a bit during a shoe as the count falls, but I will not let them see me go from any high bet back to my base bet or waiting (small) wager, and I am too cheap to employ some of the covers you mentioned. With this method, they only see my wagers going one way. Can they really determine if I am betting with the count or steaming (if losing) or parlaying (if winning). Especially hard to distinguish when playing short sessions.

Handy having several dozen stores nearby huh?
But seriously KJ does that strategy lead to frequently playing only 1 shoe then heading for the door? (not that there's anything wrong with that. I think its probably the only way a grinder can survive)

It's still best to leave. At least go to another pit or something. It's not realistic to believe that you're going to make a lot of money counting shoes in a location with only one or two casinos; the idea of a grinder making a living in a place like that is entirely mythical. Unless, perhaps, you're somewhere outside the US where they literally have no clue what counting is. If that's the case, quit posting here, go play, and don't tell anyone about it.

 

[moo321]

What the hell? Yes you need to take that bet down!

You're in a shoe game? Your edge isn't strong enough to do betting cover. Why is EVERYONE on here recommending this guy not go to his minimum? This is a red chipper in a shoe game! You don't have enough bankroll or edge to play with cover!

Take that damn bet down, and bet exactly what the count requires at each hand. You'll kill yourself if you don't.

 

[kewljason]

What the hell? Yes you need to take that bet down!

You're in a shoe game? Your edge isn't strong enough to do betting cover. Why is EVERYONE on here recommending this guy not go to his minimum? This is a red chipper in a shoe game! You don't have enough bankroll or edge to play with cover!

Take that damn bet down, and bet exactly what the count requires at each hand. You'll kill yourself if you don't.

My philosophy exactly Moo. I play a lot of shoe games and my advantage is slim enough as is. I refuse to give any back by using cover. Rather find a new table/casino and start over.

 

[paddywhack]

what do you guys do after a very favorable shoe when your max bet has been out a few times?

how do you gracefully reduce your bet back to the beginning of your bet ramp without attracting too much heat?

i think an abrupt reduction back down to one unit would look especially suspicious after winning a few max bet hands at the end of a shoe. in fact, it just screams AP-- to dealers, others at the table, and PBs.

any advice on how to masterfully do this?

So much depends on you. What's your style? How are you known there? Do you raise and lower bets at will or do you mainly parlay? Do they pay close attention to you? Does your max bet get a "check's play" call so that the pit it aware of what just happened? Is the only person you're trying to fool the dealer?

Some depends on the shoe. Was it one of those that slowly rose so you could up your bet naturally? Were there major jumps - therefore large bet jumps? Did you keep losing while the count went up so that it appeared you were steaming? How did the shoe end? Did you win those max bets or did you get creamed?

I play one store quite a bit and think nothing of starting a new shoe at my typical bet after finishing the last shoe with a (near) max bet if I've lost. Now if I've won those max bets I'll most likely start the next shoe with a TC+2 bet or maybe a little more. If I lose that one then I halve it, etc.....But that's only if I've gotten a ton of attention. If not, then I may just place a slightly bigger opening bet, other times, just the min.

YMMV big time but like most things, one size does not fit all in the AP world.

 

[zengrifter]

what do you guys do after a very favorable shoe when your max bet has been out a few times?

how do you gracefully reduce your bet back to the beginning of your bet ramp without attracting too much heat?

i think an abrupt reduction back down to one unit would look especially suspicious after winning a few max bet hands at the end of a shoe. in fact, it just screams AP-- to dealers, others at the table, and PBs.

any advice on how to masterfully do this?

If you ran the max bets through the end of shoe, bet max off the top of new shoe and continue to do so UNTIL you lose it.

Another way, if you have a single max bet at the end, divide it to two hands OTT. Play each until lost. zg

 

[1357111317]

simple solution, just max bet the first two decks of the next shoe!

I'm kidding, it takes a special game for that. But yeah, probably just leave.

 

[zengrifter]

If you ran the max bets through the end of shoe, bet max off the top of new shoe and continue to do so UNTIL you lose it.

Another way, if you have a single max bet at the end, divide it to two hands OTT. Play each until lost. zg

This is very low cost cover. zg

 

[blackjack avenger]

Well Said

Everyone gave great advice, of course one could just read the summary in MY POST:laugh:

Kewl I like where you state I did not mention leaving, when I did. Guess you are still pondering the size queen thing!:laugh::grin: Got ya

 

[zengrifter]

The problem with just leaving is that if you frequent the club repeatedly over time you will be recognized
for that pattern. I would rather they see that I don't leave and continue my 'streak' into the next shoe. zg