Cover that paid - also need help

#1
In the 9th inning of a 10 hour Sunday evening session (5pm - 3am), I hit a hard 17 against a 10 with a TC -3 and got a perfect 21, beating the dealer. I had also been using alcohol as cover (3 beers over 10 hours) - and find talking, "making a scene" on big hands comes natural to me, But I'm acting all while focusing on the count like a Zen monk LOL.

I have a real problem feeling comfortable back counting or wonging out - Does sitting out multiple hands attract real heat? Is this easier with crowded tables or empty tables? It seems with COVID there's a long backline waiting to sit so counting doesn't matter because you can't snag a seat. It seems on busy nights its best to play through.

Also, my bankroll is about 1k-2.5k at most and play 25min 0.56% edge so I'm afraid my risk is too high to not wong.

I had some real luck with free bet BJ despite the 1% house edge. Since it's 2 deck, it's countable and has huge split/double potential which can be aggressive for a small bankroll. But the no mid-shoe entry and the push 22 is tough, but it makes me think it's like i'm not even playing the hand, but wouldn't that be a advantage since positive counts only come 20% of the time? Even though it would of been a win... Not sure
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#2
"I hit a hard 17 against a 10 with a TC -3 and got a perfect 21, beating the dealer."

You realize, of course, that that was a really bad mistake, right?

Don
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#7
Strato21 said:
It's called cover. The cost of one hand is better than getting heat imo... Why the toxicity lmao?
Do you know the size of your bet at the time? When you make cover plays (kind of unnecessary for the small stakes you're playing for), you should know the cost. In this case, it was 16% of your wager, which is awfully high. You can do a lot better than that. See BJA3, p. 98.

Don
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#8
Most cover plays are overrated. As card counters we play to a razor thin edge. Most cover plays eat into that edge and the return or benefit is usually much less than people think. If you are going to consider cover, I would look into several plays that cost almost nothing. Look into card counter's basic strategy.

Evaluations are done by computer these days. So cover plays including betting cover isn't going to "fool" the computer once you are into an evaluation. The value of cover plays, including betting cover is if it buys you a little more time before an evaluation is requested. Basically I don't think cover plays really do anymore. Most pit critters are looking at one thing now, bet variation. I mean things like taking insurance sometimes but not others, hitting the most common hand 16 vs 10 sometimes but not others might still tip off an alert pit guy, but mainly it is that bet spread that draws their attention, IMO. I would go as far to say fewer and fewer pit people even know proper plays, so cover plays are completely lost on them. But someone raising a bet 8, 10 12 times is not lost on them. That is what they are looking for now.

For this reason, you may want to employ some betting cover as opposed to playing cover. There is a cost to betting cover, but it can help buy some longevity in my experience. The best betting cover is to exit after placing larger bets. And that one is free. Just don't let them see that retreat backwards which is probably the single biggest "tell" of a card counter.

Another one I like is to spread both ways. This has a cost but it is effective. Probably will take multiple shoes to see your FULL spread and they will have to piece it together. I am not saying start in the middle of your spread and go both ways....that would be very costly. Just don't start with your minimum wager. Starting with just 2x minimum wager and spreading both ways will reduce what your spread appears to be by 50%. A 1-6 spread looks very different to pit than a 1-12 spread and like I said they would have to see both sides of spread AND Piece that together to see the real spread.
 
#9
I doubt that "3 beers over 10 hours" really convinced them you were just a drunk high roller lol. WIth a 2k bankroll lol.
And sitting out hands always screams counter in my opinion.
 
Last edited:

MJGolf

Well-Known Member
#10
KewlJ said:
Most cover plays are overrated. As card counters we play to a razor thin edge. Most cover plays eat into that edge and the return or benefit is usually much less than people think. If you are going to consider cover, I would look into several plays that cost almost nothing. Look into card counter's basic strategy.

Another one I like is to spread both ways. This has a cost but it is effective. Probably will take multiple shoes to see your FULL spread and they will have to piece it together. I am not saying start in the middle of your spread and go both ways....that would be very costly. Just don't start with your minimum wager. Starting with just 2x minimum wager and spreading both ways will reduce what your spread appears to be by 50%. A 1-6 spread looks very different to pit than a 1-12 spread and like I said they would have to see both sides of spread AND Piece that together to see the real spread.
KJ makes some good points. And honestly, play with a $2k bankroll in most places won't even catch anyone's attention negatively. CIF makes a good point about sitting out hands, but you can do that judiciously in some circumstances, as in "changing the flow of cards" or that you want to "see how a new player plays" who has just come to the table. V. the cell phone ruse in negative counts. But it's only good for a bit.

One thing I have noticed playing in this "new normal" environment, is that the pit critters seem to have more work to do behind the tables or more tables to supervise. They don't seem to be watching as closely as before. Just my two cents worth and observation. Less attention is always better in my opinion. Maybe KJ has more current observational info.
 
#11
MJGolf said:
KJ makes some good points. And honestly, play with a $2k bankroll in most places won't even catch anyone's attention negatively. CIF makes a good point about sitting out hands, but you can do that judiciously in some circumstances, as in "changing the flow of cards" or that you want to "see how a new player plays" who has just come to the table. V. the cell phone ruse in negative counts. But it's only good for a bit.

One thing I have noticed playing in this "new normal" environment, is that the pit critters seem to have more work to do behind the tables or more tables to supervise. They don't seem to be watching as closely as before. Just my two cents worth and observation. Less attention is always better in my opinion. Maybe KJ has more current observational info.
I found a local store that has 'new dealer' training pits with like 5 new dealers and their trainers. Not sure if this is a good opportunity since they're being watched. Perhaps camp them when they graduate.
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#12
MJGolf said:
One thing I have noticed playing in this "new normal" environment, is that the pit critters seem to have more work to do behind the tables or more tables to supervise. They don't seem to be watching as closely as before. Just my two cents worth and observation. Less attention is always better in my opinion. Maybe KJ has more current observational info.
Thank you MJGolf. My observations are only for Las Vegas as that is all I have played this year. As the casinos began preparing to open in June after the shutdown, it became clear to me that pit folks were going to have new, added responsibilities that could present opportunities to players. For me, I thought it would allow me to play higher stakes than I normally do with less attention while the pit folks settled into their new responsibilities. In addition, surveillance had additional things they had to be on the look out for, pushing card counters even further down their list.

I played a lot during the summer months, at my new increased stakes, allowing me to quickly accumulate EV. Right now I am actually very close to a normal year EV-wise, which is astonishing. Unfortunately variance was not kind to me while playing higher stakes and that increased EV opportunity didn't translate into actual increased win. That I can't control. That is variance....part of the game.

Just about labor day, 3 months into this new normal, I finally began to draw some attention at my new higher stakes, as pit folks began to settle into their new normal, so I went back to my normal stakes which I play because I have determined they are better tolerated and I am all about longevity.

End result: My EV is just about normal or what I have averaged for the last 10 years, but my actual results for the year are significantly below that, just barely in the black for the year. And between frustration at this "spinning my wheels" results and covid cases now back on the increase, I have just decided to take the remainder of the year off, relax, stay healthy (mostly out of the riskier casino environment), regroup and get ready for next year.

I have no regrets though. I thought there would be an opportunity to play higher stakes, and quickly build EV while drawing no additional attention (as pit folks remained occupied), and there was. It just didn't translate into great results.
 
#13
KewlJ said:
Most cover plays are overrated. As card counters we play to a razor thin edge. Most cover plays eat into that edge and the return or benefit is usually much less than people think. If you are going to consider cover, I would look into several plays that cost almost nothing. Look into card counter's basic strategy.

Evaluations are done by computer these days. So cover plays including betting cover isn't going to "fool" the computer once you are into an evaluation. The value of cover plays, including betting cover is if it buys you a little more time before an evaluation is requested. Basically I don't think cover plays really do anymore. Most pit critters are looking at one thing now, bet variation. I mean things like taking insurance sometimes but not others, hitting the most common hand 16 vs 10 sometimes but not others might still tip off an alert pit guy, but mainly it is that bet spread that draws their attention, IMO. I would go as far to say fewer and fewer pit people even know proper plays, so cover plays are completely lost on them. But someone raising a bet 8, 10 12 times is not lost on them. That is what they are looking for now.

For this reason, you may want to employ some betting cover as opposed to playing cover. There is a cost to betting cover, but it can help buy some longevity in my experience. The best betting cover is to exit after placing larger bets. And that one is free. Just don't let them see that retreat backwards which is probably the single biggest "tell" of a card counter.

Another one I like is to spread both ways. This has a cost but it is effective. Probably will take multiple shoes to see your FULL spread and they will have to piece it together. I am not saying start in the middle of your spread and go both ways....that would be very costly. Just don't start with your minimum wager. Starting with just 2x minimum wager and spreading both ways will reduce what your spread appears to be by 50%. A 1-6 spread looks very different to pit than a 1-12 spread and like I said they would have to see both sides of spread AND Piece that together to see the real spread.
This is a great post by KewlJ...
Counter's Basic Strategy has always made the most sense to me, especially with today's games.
Very little cost to help longevity at places you want to try and keep. The days of splitting 10s etc are long gone unless you are just willing to burn it down.

His other very important info is about leaving after showing your big bet.
You can't show big then retreat back to your min at the start of every shoe...that is a dead give away. And any idiot in pit or surveillance is going to notice and start watching you.

Also very important is spreading both ways.
As he said, basically you can't start every shoe at min bet. Yes there is a cost, but you have to do it if you hope for any longevity.

So basically I agree with KewlJ.
For local places where you want longevity...concentrate on betting cover, not playing cover.
If you hit a 16 or not sometimes is not fooling anyone. Covering your spread as best you can is what matters for longevity.

Oh and also...stop staring at every card :)
 
Last edited:
#14
Counting_Is_Fun said:
This is a great post by KewlJ...
Counter's Basic Strategy has always made the most sense to me, especially with today's games.
Very little cost to help longevity at places you want to try and keep. The days of splitting 10s etc are long gone unless you are just willing to burn it down.

His other very important info is about leaving after showing your big bet.
You can't show big then retreat back to your min at the start of every shoe...that is a dead give away. And any idiot in pit or surveillance is going to notice and start watching you.

Also very important is spreading both ways.
As he said, basically you can't start every shoe at min bet. Yes there is a cost, but you have to do it if you hope for any longevity.

So basically I agree with KewlJ.
For local places where you want longevity...concentrate on betting cover, not playing cover.
If you hit a 16 or not sometimes is not fooling anyone. Covering your spread as best you can is what matters for longevity.

Oh and also...stop staring at every card :)

Hey - about that last part

How in the hell do I count without suspicious eyes. I for sure have stopped preemptively looking at first bases card spot when i'm in 3rd base ect. I try my best now to look uninsterested in the cards and react accordingly to my hand, then I just watch the hands as they play normally. It seems like where your eyes are is important 24/7. I'm either having a staring contest with PC's or looking at cards or the TV. I feel like my eyes age 3times the rate at these damn tables lmao
 

MJGolf

Well-Known Member
#15
You don't want to make it look like it's an intense fascination with "every card" as CIF rightfully suggests.........but if you look at how all "ploppies" play, there is general watching and interest in every card that comes out. Think about those who wish you good luck on an Ace first card hoping for the BJ or who congratulate you when you have a BJ or make a hand. So most players watch the cards and follow the dealer. You just don't want to have a death stare at each and every card or an intense focus on them while someone asks you a question or something. With enough playing and practice, counting comes naturally. There are normal breaks and pauses in the game where you can review cards and hands. Plus you can move your eyes; you don't need to be a swivel head. That to me is the giveaway of a novice card counter physically.....LOL
 
#16
MJGolf said:
You don't want to make it look like it's an intense fascination with "every card" as CIF rightfully suggests.........but if you look at how all "ploppies" play, there is general watching and interest in every card that comes out. Think about those who wish you good luck on an Ace first card hoping for the BJ or who congratulate you when you have a BJ or make a hand. So most players watch the cards and follow the dealer. You just don't want to have a death stare at each and every card or an intense focus on them while someone asks you a question or something. With enough playing and practice, counting comes naturally. There are normal breaks and pauses in the game where you can review cards and hands. Plus you can move your eyes; you don't need to be a swivel head. That to me is the giveaway of a novice card counter physically.....LOL

these are really good tips. I had a bad habit of looking at other players hit cards as I was checking my phone or something lol. Like magnet head to drawn cards. I need to stop that ASAP.
 
#17
MJGolf said:
You don't want to make it look like it's an intense fascination with "every card" as CIF rightfully suggests.........but if you look at how all "ploppies" play, there is general watching and interest in every card that comes out. Think about those who wish you good luck on an Ace first card hoping for the BJ or who congratulate you when you have a BJ or make a hand. So most players watch the cards and follow the dealer. You just don't want to have a death stare at each and every card or an intense focus on them while someone asks you a question or something. With enough playing and practice, counting comes naturally. There are normal breaks and pauses in the game where you can review cards and hands. Plus you can move your eyes; you don't need to be a swivel head. That to me is the giveaway of a novice card counter physically.....LOL
Good info from MJGolf...
Yes, most ploppies are interested in the cards too...but just don't overdo it.
Like everything, you get better with more casino experience.
I choose to not stare at every card as it comes out...it's easier to cancel cards after everyone shows anyway.
After awhile you can just scan the whole table and count every card so fast that that it's impossible for the pit to even notice.
But you are right...the pit will watch you closely if they suspect you. You will often find one of them hiding far back staring at you to see where your eyes go.
I think staring at the TV or talking and letting them see that I didn't even look at the round being dealt helps.
All that being said...you can start to tell when some ahole pit person suspects you and always is watching you. He always seems to be aware of you...I avoid those guys and leave.
Or purposely turn away or start talking to somebody and let them see that I "missed" those cards being shown...etc.

Also don't stare at the discard tray...NOBODY even looks at the discard tray except counters lol. It's probably the worst give away in my opinion.
 
Last edited:
Top