CVCX Question (with screen shot)

[Dyepaintball12]

I am trying to do a sim for the BP for a BP Team.

I put in an $85,000 BR, 6 deck, 75% pen, H17, DAS. I put to come in only on TCs of +1 or above.

To get an acceptable ROR, the program guided me to use $150 as a unit and spread 1-6 to $900 max for an ROR of 2.3%.

This came out to $275.39 an hour with a STD of about $3500. Is this right? I posted this here because that $$ amount per hour seemed high.

 

[assume_R]

Edit your image to be linked to

(Dead link: http://s2.webstarts.com/davidspictures/uploads/First_Sim.png)

to have the image show up.

 

[Dyepaintball12]

Worked - thanks!

 

[assume_R]

Regarding your original question, here's my response:

Firstly, your screenshot shows you playing TC = 0. So your Backcount might not be correctly set at +1. Perhaps qfit can answer better regarding this.

Secondly, what seems high? Let's go through each number:

1. Your unit is $150, so your average bet is $297, or about 2 units. Seems reasonable for a 1-6 spread.
2. Your average bet is $297, with a win of $275 per hour, or 1.8 units per hour. Seems reasonable for backcounting and a 1-6 spread.
3. Your standard deviation is $3500 / hour, or 25 units per hour. Now while this may seem high, it isn't, because this takes into account the standard deviation of each count, the $$ you have out at that count, the frequency of each count, and the hands per hour you play at that count. It isn't unreasonably high in terms of units / hour when you remember you aren't flat betting.
4. Your RoR is at 2% based on your overall EV and Var. Seems reasonable

 

[Dyepaintball12]

Okay yeah I dont know about that TC 0 issue! I can't seem to make it go away. But thanks for the input!

 

[rukus]

dont forget, this is only for the BP, right? assuming your spotters are also playing min bets (including at modest negative counts like -1 or even 0), you need to account for this when calculating average bet, EV, std dev, etc. otherwise you are overstating your EV or understating your ROR on an 85k bank that supports both the spotters and bp.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Is This So?

Do you plan to resize bets down on losses?
If so your EV is not as high as you think
but
Your ror is lower
Also, if you do the above your long run numbers (NO) will increase

:joker::whip: