DDSS Ratings Insider Best Bets 12/9

[traynor]

Minimum acceptable odds are 3/2. If you can't get
the odds, pass the race.

Dec9 Beulah Race 7
#3 PeaceAndJoy

Dec9 BayMeadows Race 2
#6 YodelinforLynne

Dec9 BayMeadows Race 7
#7 KellyCarson

Dec9 BayMeadows Race 8
#5 GreatestHope

Dec9 Calder Race 1
#7 OneforBud

Dec9 Calder Race 10
#3 Machismo

Dec9 CharlesTown Race 4
#1 Mudesh

Dec9 CharlesTown Race 5
#3 CityAvenger

Dec9 CharlesTown Race 8
#3 RemarqableTale

Dec9 CharlesTown Race 10
#1 OZoneLayer

Dec9 FairGrounds Race 6
#2 CortsPB

Dec9 FairGrounds Race 7
#7 TortugaStraits

Dec9 Laurel Race 5
#9 PuDew

Dec9 Mountaineer Race 8
#4 HighHeritage

Dec9 Philadelphia Race 4
#4 MeandYou

Dec9 TampaBay Race 1
#1 MikesClassic

Dec9 TampaBay Race 7
#5 BarkleySound

Dec9 TampaBay Race 10
#7 DreamofAngels

Dec9 TurfwayPark Race 2
#1 Recalcitrant

Dec9 TurfwayPark Race 5
#8 DiamondMiss

Dec9 TurfwayPark Race 12
#1 LiverUp

Dec9 TurfParadise Race 4
#6 StormReview

Good Luck

 

[sagefr0g]

hey Traynor what are these statistics that you post? are these projected winners, place or show?
if you was at a track and wanted to bet on these horses that are running at other tracks i think you can follow the race on video. can you bet those races at the track you are at even if the race is at another track?
if the odds were close to 3/2 would it have been worth a shot?

 

[traynor]

Results

Minimum acceptable odds are 3/2. If you can't get
the odds, pass the race.

Dec9 Beulah Race 7
#3 PeaceAndJoy----------------WON $2.40

Dec9 BayMeadows Race 2
#6 YodelinforLynne------------WON $4.40

Dec9 BayMeadows Race 7
#7 KellyCarson----------------WON $8.00

Dec9 BayMeadows Race 8
#5 GreatestHope---------------WON $4.80

Dec9 Calder Race 1
#7 OneforBud------------------WON $4.20

Dec9 Calder Race 10
#3 Machismo-------------------WON $9.00

Dec9 CharlesTown Race 4
#1 Mudesh---------------------OUT

Dec9 CharlesTown Race 5
#3 CityAvenger----------------WON $3.20

Dec9 CharlesTown Race 8
#3 RemarqableTale-------------WON $5.40

Dec9 CharlesTown Race 10
#1 OZoneLayer-----------------PLACE (NO BET 4/5)

Dec9 FairGrounds Race 6
#2 CortsPB--------------------OUT

Dec9 FairGrounds Race 7
#7 TortugaStraits-------------WON $3.60

Dec9 Laurel Race 5
#9 PuDew----------------------WON $3.20

Dec9 Mountaineer Race 8
#4 HighHeritage---------------OUT (NO BET 0.80/1)

Dec9 Philadelphia Race 4
#4 MeandYou-------------------WON $7.40

Dec9 TampaBay Race 1
#1 MikesClassic---------------WON $4.20

Dec9 TampaBay Race 7
#5 BarkleySound---------------WON $3.60

Dec9 TampaBay Race 10
#7 DreamofAngels--------------WON $3.20

Dec9 TurfwayPark Race 2
#1 Recalcitrant---------------WON $3.20

Dec9 TurfwayPark Race 5
#8 DiamondMiss----------------WON $4.20

Dec9 TurfwayPark Race 12
#1 LiverUp--------------------OUT

Dec9 TurfParadise Race 4
#6 StormReview----------------WON $3.00

7 Bettable races, WON 4 at $8.00, $9.00, $7.40, and $5.40 = $29.80
$29.80 - $14 = +$15.80
That was great fun. We'll have to do it all again someday.
Good Luck

 

[traynor]

hey Traynor what are these statistics that you post? are these projected winners, place or show?
if you was at a track and wanted to bet on these horses that are running at other tracks i think you can follow the race on video. can you bet those races at the track you are at even if the race is at another track?
if the odds were close to 3/2 would it have been worth a shot?

Super specific. The Insider Best Bets are based on fairly high win frequency, solid selections. That means lots of winners, but not much price. In many cases, only win bets are profitable. If you followed the recommendation to pass any race that was less than 3/2, you passed a lot of races, but got some good, solid winners in the bettable races.

The Insider Analysis Ratings are all "swing for the bleachers"; instructions specify that any key selection for win has to be 5/1 or better. Many fewer winners, but nice ones when they hit. Exactas and trifectas are similarly rewarding (or more so).

If you were at a track, you call track first, then amount, then bet, then entry number; "Turfway Park, sixth race, $2 to win on 3." There are variations, but that format results in the fewest screwed up tickets.

Any track that shows simulcast races usually offers wagers on those tracks. The money is fed into the mutuel pools of the tracks where the race happens, after the "host" track (the track you are at) takes a cut. The local tracks I frequent accept wagers on some huge number of tracks (40 or 50), and most bettors bet more on "off-site" races than on local races.

The 3/2 specification was to provide more action. In reality, our normal cutoff is 5/2. It may seem nitpicky, but in this case it only made a difference in one race out of 22; it included the winner at $5.40 that would otherwise have been passed. However, if you were betting seriously, it will work out better over time (more profitable) if you pass the races that don't offer enough value to produce a long-term profit.

The results for this group of races turned out well, and included a lot of winners. Other days will show lots of low-odds entries running out of the money; todya they won, but tomorrow they could lose. We "layer" results by odds ranges, and using a "minimum acceptable odds" cutoff is the best way to turn a profit. You would be surprised how many entries go off at less than even money (4/5, 3/5, 2/5) and lose.

Horse races can be fun, but if you are doing it for money, it is best to follow instructions failry strictly. The purpose of the instructions, just like a count strategy, is to give you a statistical edge. Betting entries that fall below the minimum odds cutoff point diminishes or destroys that edge.
Good Luck