Dealer success
- Thread starter BLUE
- Start date
Somewhere in the neighborhood of 48% of the time depending on the rules. The players % win is about 43% of the time.
But it's not that dire. Remember, you may have the opportunity to double down or split the first hand, or you might receive a blackjack and get a 3:2 payout. The dealer can not double down, split or get paid extra for a blackjack.
But it's not that dire. Remember, you may have the opportunity to double down or split the first hand, or you might receive a blackjack and get a 3:2 payout. The dealer can not double down, split or get paid extra for a blackjack.
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Some people use a higher first hand bet as cover. At least this is better than raising the bet when you KNOW the count is negative.
And sometimes players raise their bet on the first hand when they enter the game at the beginning of a shoe in hopes that the PC will mark them down for a higher average bet than their actual play warrants (for the purpose of accruing greater comps).
And sometimes players raise their bet on the first hand when they enter the game at the beginning of a shoe in hopes that the PC will mark them down for a higher average bet than their actual play warrants (for the purpose of accruing greater comps).
Around 48% or so, you always have a disadvantage in this situation. The only thing that changes the outcome here is "luck". Unless you are holecarding or shuffle tracking, you are betting into the wild blue yonder off the top. Not saying I don't do it myself from time to time when a PC is paying attention though, lol.
51.8% makes it seem like an exact number, which it is not. It all depends on the rules of the game.
The way you phrase it, you make it sound like you have some kind of advantage--51.8% chance of winning or pushing. Contrary to popular belief among ploppies, a push is not a win. The right way to look at it is that you have a greater chance of losing than winning. In fact, by your calculations, you have a ~6% greater chance of losing. True, perfect BS, splits, double downs and blackjacks will reduce the dollar risk to ~0.5% depending on the game, but it is still a losing proposition. Except for cover or comps or taking advantage of some other known fact (holecarding, ace steering, etc.), betting more on the first hand is not a smart move.
The way you phrase it, you make it sound like you have some kind of advantage--51.8% chance of winning or pushing. Contrary to popular belief among ploppies, a push is not a win. The right way to look at it is that you have a greater chance of losing than winning. In fact, by your calculations, you have a ~6% greater chance of losing. True, perfect BS, splits, double downs and blackjacks will reduce the dollar risk to ~0.5% depending on the game, but it is still a losing proposition. Except for cover or comps or taking advantage of some other known fact (holecarding, ace steering, etc.), betting more on the first hand is not a smart move.
As a matter of fact, my blackjack experience over the years usually finds me in the negative category early in the shoe. It is very rare that I walk into the casino, find a table, sit down, then win the first few hands, regardless of number of decks remaining. Since I came close to being labeled as a ploppie, I guess I should refrain from acting so bold on the first hand. You guys are going to make me a real card counter, yet.