Depressing variance as beginner, is it normal?

[CommanderCreatine]

I have been experiencing very depressing results recently. Although I have gotten as far as +300 in terms of profit, I have recently dug myself in a hole of -268.

My betting strategy is an extreme version of wonging. I literally play no negative counts. Rarely I will hop in at TC 1, betting 25. Most of the time I go for TC 2, and TC 3. I flat bet 25, but will wong out the second the count plummets or if I lose confidence in my count (happening less and less as I have been clocking 2 hours of daily practice).

I barely get any action, because I have to play an 8 deck game, and it takes a while for the count to rise to my desired levels. Rules are actually very favorable though (PA rules, DDAS, Late Surrender, Dealer stands soft 17), and penetration can be up to 80% depending on dealer.

My bankroll is 2000. I calculated a ROR of around 16% with my betting ramp. It is fairly replenishable, as I am a soon-to-be tax consultant, and will receive a fat bonus as soon as I get my license.

Here are my current session results.

Session 1: 175
2: 50
3: 145
4: -62
5: -309
6: 378
7: -32.5
8: -265
9: -225
10: 2.5
11: -125
12: 37.5
13: -155

I am starting to question if this is within the realm of normal results. It infuriates me how many surrender hands I get and how many ploppies are doing better than I. I am willing to do whatever it takes to improve, but mentally it is incredibly draining following BS to the letter and still having little to show for it.

 

[D0nnieD0minos]

A 16% ROR is fairly high - that's a 1 in 6.25 chance - so I would say you are well within normal, especially with a statistical sample size of only 13 sessions. I would suggest you Kelly down the bet as you BR depletes to lower that ROR - if you Kelly with $2K using PA rules, your ideal bet at a TC of +2 is approximately $9.58, not $25, by my estimation - to bet $25 using Kelly at your BR, TC would need to be +4. Also, one of the frustrations of wonging, in my experience, at lower stakes 8D tables is that when the TC FINALLY is favorable, the gummies are eating up a lot of the positive EV hands if the table is full - which sounds like what is happening to you. You might consider spreading to 2 hands at $10 instead of 1 at $25 (after playing a few single hands) if the limits allow it. Better yet is to wait for the bonus to come in and run a Kelly chart against your larger BR.

 

[D0nnieD0minos]

Also, the fact that you're seeing ploppies win at positive TCs should give you comfort knowing that eventually you'll be at the seat that catches the better hands.

 

[D0nnieD0minos]

One more comment on ROR.... a 1 in 6.25 chance is just a little better than surviving a round of Russian Roulette. Would you play that?

 

[psyduck]

The problem with shoe games is the high count situation just does not happen a lot. For Wonging, you need to wait a long time to get a chance. And when the count is high, your margin is still small and the chance of losing is still significant.

Betting big at high count is mathematically correct IF your BR is large enough and you are in for the LONG run. However part time players just cannot reach the long run. As a result I avoid getting crushed in high count because you just cannot win all the high count situations (emphasis: my approach was based on my own situation).

By no means is BJ an easy way to make money. If you play enough, you will definitely experience "if it can happen, it will happen" and "most dealers can do magic at some time". It is not uncommon to see ploppies keep winning, with all the wrong plays that is!

 

[Splittingten's]

Well, I don't know why people are trying to tell you to bet Kelly. You said your ROR was 16% and you're fine with that and your BR is replenishable. This is what your graph looks like.I say just play more sessions until you lose your entire bank roll. You should probably stop doing your extreme wong too and play throughought the wholeshoe and maybe wong at -1. Your ROR would probably go up but at least it won't be as draining.
There might be a fundamental flaw in your game though. Without looking it up please list us your basic strategy deviations and make sure you have your BS to a T because you might not even be playing a winning game.

 

[ZeeBabar]

It makes more sense to start out with a new shoe and wong out at TC-1 than to spend all that time waiting, Get $10 a hand till TC2 and $25 thereafter.