Derren Brown on Blackjack

[London Colin]

Derren Brown is a magician.

His TV stunts have included predicting the result of the National Lottery, playing Russian Roulette, reading people's minds, and all that kind of thing.

His act tends to include supposed explanations of how he does some of his tricks. These are generally just more misdirection, and often totally ludicrous.

It's safe to say he is not a card counter or memorizer.

 

[aslan]

Derren Brown is a magician.

His TV stunts have included predicting the result of the National Lottery, playing Russian Roulette, reading people's minds, and all that kind of thing.

His act tends to include supposed explanations of how he does some of his tricks. These are generally just more misdirection, and often totally ludicrous.

It's safe to say he is not a card counter or memorizer.

The word charlatan comes to mind. ...at least, as it applies to blackjack skills.

 

[blacklotus]

Agreed

In Derren Brown's attempt to beat Blackjack, they never show him losing a hand and how he lost the hand. With Blackjack being a high variance game, I would find it hard to believe he never cashed in for more or never lost a hand. The clip has been heavily edited to portray DB using a "winning" system that is backed by "testimonials" of other players [Gamblers who have an opinion?! gasp!]

A great attempt at showmanship. Good for ratings. Like watching a conspriracy theory show about how there wasnt a moon landing and 9/11 was staged by the white house.

Edit: However, his other skills such as misdirection and Neuro-lingustic Programming, Pick-pocketing, lock picking, cards, Seduction (Read Neil Strauss) actually are applicable and real skills; believe it or not. Reading peoples minds is based on a probablity law i think, and a sociology/economic one as well. Dont quote me as i've forgoten the specifics.

 

[ycming]

You are completely wrong. You can't compare this to hi-lo. Because hi-lo is an estimate of the advantage (e.g. look at the effect of removal for each card, then you will see hi-lo is just a rounded version of that). Perfect example of this would be if all the aces come out in a shoe with hi-lo, your advantage won't be as big as what hi-lo tells you.

Knowing exactly the compositions of the deck, can help you make the mathematically correct decision everytime. Much superior to hi-lo.

You are correct about him that he doesn't know exactly what comes next and that be the variance he face.

Ming

 

[aslan]

In Derren Brown's attempt to beat Blackjack, they never show him losing a hand and how he lost the hand. With Blackjack being a high variance game, I would find it hard to believe he never cashed in for more or never lost a hand. The clip has been heavily edited to portray DB using a "winning" system that is backed by "testimonials" of other players [Gamblers who have an opinion?! gasp!]

A great attempt at showmanship. Good for ratings. Like watching a conspriracy theory show about how there wasnt a moon landing and 9/11 was staged by the white house.

Edit: However, his other skills such as misdirection and Neuro-lingustic Programming, Pick-pocketing, lock picking, cards, Seduction (Read Neil Strauss) actually are applicable and real skills; believe it or not. Reading peoples minds is based on a probablity law i think, and a sociology/economic one as well. Dont quote me as i've forgoten the specifics.

With near certainty, if there were anyone who could win as portrayed, they would never reveal such a fact to the public. They would guard this secret knowledge for dear life, and use it stealthily hoping never to be ID'ed while they reaped millions. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ :grin:

 

[blacklotus]

You are correct sir

Ming[/QUOTE]

You are right, i can't compare knowing the deck composition to hilo; as hilo is an estimate of the advantage. But i would like to clarify what my intention of my example was.

The intention was to show that through the application of Basic Strategy and its deviations based on the estimation of the advantage in the deck, you arrive at same conclusion. But you can prove mathematically, why you make those decisions.

I would like to point out that knowing exactly the composition of the deck is kind of what CC is all about. The holy grail one might say. However, knowing the composition of the deck is contradictory if one uses mathematically incorrect decisions.
DB's scenario i still think falls into voodoo thinking

You are correct sir, because if one uses a level 4 count like Thorps Ultimate Count, or even memorized the cards seen, it is more powerful than hilo. In fact hilo is an extremely simplified version of this. But, even with this information, it is what you do with the information that matters.
Essentially, if you make a decision that is not based on the maths, you would expect to lose overall in the long run. In my example, i assume Derren Brown does not know the correct mathematical decision and bases his actions purely on knowing the composition of the deck.

If DB knew the composition of the deck and then using probabilty concluded that he should sit 16 v10 and 15v10, then yes knowing the composition of the deck aids in making the correct mathematical play. If DB doesnt calculate the probability, then there is not much advantaged gained by memorizing the cards seen to know the composition of the deck.
I would like to say DB uses a cruder method of CC, but if he doesnt anchor his decisions and bets on Basic Strategy or maths, then any advantage he gains through memorization is lost mathematically to the casino. For example never doubling or splitting because he knows there are less tens in the deck.

I would like to hear more from your perspective Ming. Thanks for the clarification.

 

[UK-21]

Card counting was covered in another TV prog in the UK - The Real Hustle. Two personalities, who are basically aiming to educate the public to various scams, show how they can take casinos to the cleaners playing Blackjack. Needless to say the show didn't show any losing hands and was no doubt heavily edited and gave a very one-sided view of the results that can be achieved when counting the cards. What gave it away though was when one of them split his fives, after he'd just increased his bet. Hmmm . . . . . someone didn't do their research me thinks.

 

[blacklotus]

I have seen that show The real hustle-It is very educational on the deceit a player can pull to cheat other players and the casino. Apart from that, its all fluff from then on.

 

[PierceNation]

I remember that show...didnt they do a bit on ST and the guy cut to 20 aces in a 1 deck segment or something ridiculous like that. BLATANTLY rigged the deck beforehand.

 

[UK-21]

I have seen that show The real hustle-It is very educational on the deceit a player can pull to cheat other players and the casino. Apart from that, its all fluff from then on.

Saw another just last night on the Discovery Channel - "How do they do it" or some such . . .

Not so long back two gentleman had the prividege of being the first to be convicted under the revised Gambling Act, where cheating is now a included as a criminal offence, although it doesn't specify exactly what cheating is. They were convicted on video evidence that they'd been swapping cards at a three card poker table - an accomplice distracted the dealer, and they passed cards to each other below the level of the table. The casinos video footage was shown, and there's no doubt at all as to what was going on. This was in the Empire in Leicester Square.

Can't think why they'd think they could get away with it?

 

[Daggers]

i watched some of his other videos and what he does seems like a set up to me

 

[tthree]

I don't know about this guy but I just had my first experience of using an observation to turn around my fate on many hands. I noticed that 6 eights came out on the first round and 5 on each of the next 2 rounds. It might have gone unnoticed but the first 6 were in pairs on 3 different hands. I don't usually side count eights (ace side count keeps me busy enough) but this time I had to, half were gone out of an 8 deck shoe before 1 deck had been dealt. That made my RC adjustment for 12 or 13 versus a strong dealer upcards anywhere from +52 for (12 v 7) to +156 for (12 v 9). I was standing on many of my 12 and 13 v any non stiff and all stiffs upcard throughout the shoe. I usually shy away from doubling A2, A3, A4, A5 or A9 v 3 (without a side count not enough info on the key cards). I doubled an A4 v 3 with an adjustment to the RC of +40 and an A5 v 3 with an RC adjustment of +50 on my 2 hands of the same round. I figure I won at least an extra 10 to 20 units because of this observation. All that side count studying had me ready when the opportunity arose.

 

[ycming]

I don't know about this guy but I just had my first experience of using an observation to turn around my fate on many hands. I noticed that 6 eights came out on the first round and 5 on each of the next 2 rounds. It might have gone unnoticed but the first 6 were in pairs on 3 different hands. I don't usually side count eights (ace side count keeps me busy enough) but this time I had to, half were gone out of an 8 deck shoe before 1 deck had been dealt. That made my RC adjustment for 12 or 13 versus a strong dealer upcards anywhere from +52 for (12 v 7) to +156 for (12 v 9). I was standing on many of my 12 and 13 v any non stiff and all stiffs upcard throughout the shoe. I usually shy away from doubling A2, A3, A4, A5 or A9 v 3 (without a side count not enough info on the key cards). I doubled an A4 v 3 with an adjustment to the RC of +40 and an A5 v 3 with an RC adjustment of +50 on my 2 hands of the same round. I figure I won at least an extra 10 to 20 units because of this observation. All that side count studying had me ready when the opportunity arose.

you trying to tell us you are Darren Brown ?

 

[ycming]

"I would like to point out that knowing exactly the composition of the deck is kind of what CC is all about. "

Again that is false, do you know how many 7,8,9 are left in the deck with hi-lo?

Where IF DB did count every cards as suggested, then he would know his deck composition exactly! Unlike Hi-lo, it gives you the ratio of high and low card and no information on 7,8,9.

IF he can count every single cards, then am sure he can memorise the EV for every playing decisions.

Ming