Do i really have some adventage ?

R

rabbit215

Member
#1
#1
Everyone says that without card counting the casino have 0.5% adventage over you ( with bs ), when you count cards, you have the adventage from 1-2 % I dont know who ever made that story..

There is a game called Quinto where you pick numbers from 0-9 in each diffrent column, you only pick one in each column, your probablity to get number in every column is 10%:eek:, so it seems pretty easy compare to bj

Now im playing bj with the adventage lets say 1% ... dealer wins more than 5 times in a row ??????:confused: wow he just hit a jackpot

I think casinos have like 15% adventage over you or even more, since you gotta be the one who makes the frist move plus, there is a really good chance 70% of the time dealer gets a 10

Can you beat the game? of course with thousands of dollars maybe 5000 for $5 table and some luck and your there :rolleyes:
 
K

KJ89

Member
#4
#4
rabbit215 said:
Everyone says that without card counting the casino have 0.5% adventage over you ( with bs ), when you count cards, you have the adventage from 1-2 % I dont know who ever made that story..
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When you count cards, your advantage depends on the rules of the game, your bet spread, and how you play. My understanding is that you don't have an advantage meaning that you will win more hands, but your advantage is related to your expected value, for example, when the count gets high, you will split, double more and it will be more likely for the dealer to bust. Also, getting a blackjack is more likely and that pays 3:2.

There is a game called Quinto where you pick numbers from 0-9 in each diffrent column, you only pick one in each column, your probablity to get number in every column is 10%:eek:, so it seems pretty easy compare to bj
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Your probability to get the right number in one column is 10%. When you are playing 5 columns, the probability of matching all numbers is .001%.

I think casinos have like 15% adventage over you or even more, since you gotta be the one who makes the frist move plus, there is a really good chance 70% of the time dealer gets a 10
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If you're not convinced, don't play, or study/review a statistics course and do the math yourself (might take a long time). Also, you have close to the same probability as the dealer at getting a 10. Example, 6 deck at the beginning you have a 30.77% chance of getting a 10. (16 tens/deck, 6 decks, 96tens/312cards).

Can you beat the game? of course with thousands of dollars maybe 5000 for $5 table and some luck and your there :rolleyes:
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If you want to beat the game, yes, it will take time, money, and work. But if you stay at it long enough and are disciplined enough, the math says that you will beat the game, and math doesn't lie.

Hope that helped.
KJ
 
kewljason

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
rabbit215 said:
Everyone says that without card counting the casino have 0.5% adventage over you ( with bs ), when you count cards, you have the adventage from 1-2 % I dont know who ever made that story..

There is a game called Quinto where you pick numbers from 0-9 in each diffrent column, you only pick one in each column, your probablity to get number in every column is 10%:eek:, so it seems pretty easy compare to bj

Now im playing bj with the adventage lets say 1% ... dealer wins more than 5 times in a row ??????:confused: wow he just hit a jackpot

I think casinos have like 15% adventage over you or even more, since you gotta be the one who makes the frist move plus, there is a really good chance 70% of the time dealer gets a 10
Click to expand...
You are comparing apples to oranges. You are comparing a result that happens 10% of the time, Quinto, happening 5 straight times to a result that happens about 47% of the time, dealer win, happening 5 straight times. BIG DIFFERENCE

Quinto 10% win .10 x .10 x .10 x .10 .10 = .00001 (1 out of 100,00 trials)

blackjack roughly 47% win .47 x .47 x .47 x .47 x .47 = .02293 (2 out of 100 trials)


Dealer gets a 10 70% of time?? :confused: Try 30.7 % of the time. :laugh:
 
2

21gunsalute

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
kewljason said:
You are comparing apples to oranges. You are comparing a result that happens 10% of the time, Quinto, happening 5 straight times to a result that happens about 47% of the time, dealer win, happening 5 straight times. BIG DIFFERENCE

Quinto 10% win .10 x .10 x .10 x .10 .10 = .00001 (1 out of 100,00 trials)

blackjack roughly 47% win .47 x .47 x .47 x .47 x .47 = .02293 (2 out of 100 trials)


Dealer gets a 10 70% of time?? :confused: Try 30.7 % of the time. :laugh:
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Actually I don't think he was too far off on that last point. The odds of any 1 card coming up a 10 may be 30.7%, but the dealer is going to have at least 2 cards, so the odds of a dealer getting a 10 may be closer to 70%. ;)
 
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