Double Soft 14 vs 4

[Blackjacker2]

Basic strategy says to double a soft 15 vs a 4, but hit a soft 14 vs a 4. With both those hands there are five cards that can get you to 17-21.

Not doubling a soft 15 you need an ace in order to be under soft 17. With a soft 14 it's a 2 or an ace to be under soft 17.

The only advantage I see to not doubling a soft 14 is you can catch a 2 and rehit the soft hand.

The risk seems exactly the same as there are the same amount of cards available that can help you make an actual hand. Why not double this?

 

[gordon5432]

You'd never want to stand on soft 17, so there are actually 3 cards you could catch doubling soft 14 that would make you wish you could hit again vs only 2 when doubling soft 15. It's very close, but mathematically you're better off hitting soft 14 v 4 than doubling (although in a single deck game you should double soft 13 and 14 v 4 when playing BS.)

 

[Blackjacker2]

I know you always want to hit soft 17 against anything. I just gave that example as 17 or greater gives you a better chance of winning/pushing when doubling.

With the soft 14 there is one extra card that can help you with a rehit that can't with a soft 15. You only have a 1 out of 13 chance of getting that extra card. The risk seems very close.

Playing aggressively wouldn't it be better to double, than hope to get one card?

 

[sagefr0g]

please stop saying soft 15, please say A4 instead and say A3 instead of soft 14. lmao, it'll be easier on you as well as everyone else.

you didn't say what game rules, number of decks, ect.
so lets just say s17 das six deck
note the ev's in the images below for hitting vs doubling A4 vs 4 & A3 vs 4 .
these values compute with k_c's great tdca program.
why it is that way i couldn't tell you.

 

[Blackjacker2]

It would be the game you described. Thanks for that info!

 

[gordon5432]

17 is actually an underdog against any dealer upcard except a 6, and that's only in a S17 game. As I said before, the math is extremely close, and you would make money in the long run doubling A3 v 4, just not quite as much as you would hitting in a multi-deck game.

 

[Blackjacker2]

I'll take a 17 when doubling instead of stiff any day.

 

[callipygian]

Basic strategy says to double a soft 15 vs a 4, but hit a soft 14 vs a 4. With both those hands there are five cards that can get you to 17-21. ... Why not double this?

Because you also need to consider what happens if you DON'T hit one of those five cards. If you receive an 8, you want the option of hitting 12 vs. dealer 4.

If I'm right, there should be an index to double soft 14 vs. dealer 4 around the index of hitting hard 12 vs. dealer 4 (HiLo: TC 0).

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Because you also need to consider what happens if you DON'T hit one of those five cards. If you receive an 8, you want the option of hitting 12 vs. dealer 4.

If I'm right, there should be an index to double soft 14 vs. dealer 4 around the index of hitting hard 12 vs. dealer 4 (HiLo: TC 0).

More important is the possibility of catching an A,2,3. With an A3, there 3 cards you can get that will make you wish you could take another card. With A4, there are only 2. The 12 vs. 4 play only applies to counters so it's not relevant to the Basic Strategy difference between the two hands.

 

[Cardcounter]

I will give you even money odds on a 17 vs a 6 that you will lose the hand all day long for $5 to $50 a hand.

 

[Renzey]

With the soft 14 there is one extra card that can help you with a rehit that can't with a soft 15. You only have a 1 out of 13 chance of getting that extra card. The risk seems very close.

Those two hands are very close -- but not identical. The TC index for A/3 vs. 4 is +1, while the index for A/4 vs. 4 is either 0 or -1 depending on your reference source. That is, when you're three decks into a six deck shoe, if 3 more low cards came out than high cards, you should double both hands. If 3 more highs came out than lows, you should just hit both hands. Only when the count is between those two points will you double one hand and hit the other. That's the effect of the one extra card you could catch with the A/3 and still need another hit.

 

[mulehead126]

I sure seem to have terrible luck doubling with A2-3-4-5. Sure seems like I catch those 10's that I want to be getting when I double with 10 or 11.

I'm not at all questioning the logic of the play, just my results.

 

[Blackjacker2]

I will give you even money odds on a 17 vs a 6 that you will lose the hand all day long for $5 to $50 a hand.

Where did anyone say 17 is a winning hand??

If you double 11, and get a 5, you need the dealer to bust, or you lose. If you double 11, and get a 6, you at least have the opportunity to push on 17. That was all I was stating.

Why do most people in these forums half read things, and then go on the attack?

A big thank you to those who help!!

 

[Kasi]

Where did anyone say 17 is a winning hand?? ...
Why do most people in these forums half read things, and then go on the attack?

Actually, if you more than half-read the posts, you will find Gordon5432 made the excellent point, at least I thought it was an excellent point, that 17 vs 6 is a winning hand in 6D S17 games.

So, I'd guess Cardcounters comment was more directed at that point rather than anything you said.

I certainly wouldn't call it an "attack" anyway lol.

Not sure exactly what Cardcounter was saying but if he meant he could always be the dealer with a 6 up in a 6D or 8D S17 game and I could always have a 10,7 or 9,8 initial hand, maybe he'd let Gordon and I come to his house and take shifts betting until he goes broke lol.

But maybe I'm way off base here too lol. Maybe Gordon was talking about reaching a 17 vs 6 after doubling some lower original-hand total. Like I think you were talking about lol. No idea about that one lol.

But, from a BS point of view, 17 vs 6 is a +EV hand. So, regardless, I had never thought about that anyway but now I know thanks to what I thought Gordon was saying whether he actually was saying that or not lol.

Now, while I used to just think I'm screwed no matter what when I had a 17, I can now b*tch and moan about my bad luck when I lose a 17 vs 6 :grin: