Estimating hands played per hour

[MJ1]

How do you guys estimate how many rounds you play per hour?

It is too much of a pain to actually keep a running tally of every round that you play so some type of reliable estimate is called for, for the sake of record keeping.

The best I can come up with is estimate the penetration of the shoe, and then divide the # of cards dealt by 2.7 x # of players at the table.

For example, in a 4 deck game with 1 deck cutoff,

# rounds = 156 / (2.7 x N)

where N = # players at the table plus the dealer.

Now all you have to do is keep track of how many shoes you play per trip, far easier than counting each round played.

What do you guys think?

MJ

 

[sagefr0g]

How do you guys estimate how many rounds you play per hour?

It is too much of a pain to actually keep a running tally of every round that you play so some type of reliable estimate is called for, for the sake of record keeping.

The best I can come up with is estimate the penetration of the shoe, and then divide the # of cards dealt by 2.7 x # of players at the table.

For example, in a 4 deck game with 1 deck cutoff,

# rounds = 156 / (2.7 x N)

where N = # players at the table plus the dealer.

Now all you have to do is keep track of how many shoes you play per trip, far easier than counting each round played.

What do you guys think?

MJ

first off, i think it's an excellent idea to try and keep track of how many rounds you play.
and yes your method seems a valid way of estimating how many rounds you've played.

 

[kewljason]

A very interestesting question and one I haven't seen discussed much before. I personally have morphed my method of record keeping a couple times over the last few years.

At first, I kept track by the hours played. Problem was since I wong out of negative counts, I play short sessions and would have many short sessions to add up. (15 minutes, 22 minutes, 13 minutes, ect) Also 20 minutes playing heads up yields many more hands than 20 minutes playing with 4-5 other people.

Second I switched to just counting the number of shoes I played and coming up with an average number of hands per shoe. This seemed a good solution for me since most of my play is a similar type game. (6-8 decks east coast) Problem with this was I walk on a negative count early in the second shoe, like 3 or 4 hands in, do I count this as 2 shoes? that didn't seem right. Also still didn't solve the problem of many more hands in a shoe when playing heads up than when playing with several other.

Now, I just quickly estimate the number of hands played in each session. I kept track of my wins as per 100 hands. I don't worry that it may take an hour and 40 minutes to play 100 hands in crowded situations or may take 30 minutes playing heads up, which I rarely get to do at my level of play and locations. I just know that each time I play 100 hands, I earn X amount.

I too am interested to hear other peoples methods of record keeping.

 

[Kasi]

How do you guys estimate how many rounds you play per hour?

It is too much of a pain to actually keep a running tally of every round that you play so some type of reliable estimate is called for, for the sake of record keeping.

The best I can come up with is estimate the penetration of the shoe, and then divide the # of cards dealt by 2.7 x # of players at the table.

For example, in a 4 deck game with 1 deck cutoff,

# rounds = 156 / (2.7 x N)

where N = # players at the table plus the dealer.

Now all you have to do is keep track of how many shoes you play per trip, far easier than counting each round played.

What do you guys think?

MJ

I think great question and great you are even thinking about it.

The better your estimate of rounds played, the better off you are when it comes time to measuring results later. But at least you can ask and answer to yourself 500 shoes later, what if I was off by an avg of 3 rounds per shoe and see how much of an effect it may have.

I guess you mean you you take an est avg pen of every shoe played and an estimated avg number of players per shoe after a trip? Even a 3/4 deck probably has an avg of cards dealt per shoe greater than 156. Playing heads-up, the 2.7 might change(don't know if so or by how much) since dealer wouldn't deal himself any more cards more often after you bust compared to dealing to a full table when at least somebody probably hasn't busted.

Anyway, alot better than only knowing a year later I played "100 hours". Or, worse, a year later, sayto yourself "I'm still ahead" betting off and on like a complete idiot and think "I must be doing something right" lol.

And better if you actually played about the same game the same way every time as far as betting goes. Ideally , you'd estimate rounds played separately whenever the game or style of play made you change your spread like it might if 1 shoe is 3/4 and the next is 2/4.

If I did do this, I'd do like kewlj and estimate as often as you can. Nothing else even makes sense to me like he said too.

I'd probably do something anal like move a $1 chip every 5 rounds or 10 rounds or so or something or count on my fingers and/or knuckles like what I might do if using a side-count. If back-counting, you won't be there long anyway, so write something down every time you leave the table.

Ideally, enough something so you can go back to your room that day and measure your EV vs your results as best as you can estimate.

But you must understand that or you wouldn't even be asking

 

[MJ1]

I guess you mean you you take an est avg pen of every shoe played and an estimated avg number of players per shoe after a trip?

Oh no! I intend to be more anal about it. I plan to keep a running tally of how many players there are for each shoe, the penetration, and how many shoes I play. So after a shoe has been played, I would think 1.25, 3. This means 1.25 decks cutoff, and three players. But this might be difficult to remember after several shoes have been played, each with unique characteristics.

I'd probably do something anal like move a $1 chip every 5 rounds or 10 rounds or so or something or count on my fingers and/or knuckles like what I might do if using a side-count. If back-counting, you won't be there long anyway, so write something down every time you leave the table.

The idea of using $1 chips to keep track of rounds played crossed my mind. Not a bad idea. Yea, every 5 rounds, put a chip out there. Once 5 white chips are out, then replace it with one red, which signifies 25 rounds. Then begin the process over again. But after a while, an astute observer would catch on. I would have to test this idea to see if I like it.

MJ

 

[sagefr0g]

...
The idea of using $1 chips to keep track of rounds played crossed my mind. Not a bad idea. Yea, every 5 rounds, put a chip out there. Once 5 white chips are out, then replace it with one red, which signifies 25 rounds. Then begin the process over again. But after a while, an astute observer would catch on. I would have to test this idea to see if I like it.

MJ

gives me an idea as i smoke. just know how many cigg's are in your pack when you first sit. when the shuffle comes around or you wong out have a cigarette. then at some point count how many are left.

 

[InPlay]

Put coins in one pocket and shift them to the other pocket.

 

[rukus]

gives me an idea as i smoke. just know how many cigg's are in your pack when you first sit. when the shuffle comes around or you wong out have a cigarette. then at some point count how many are left.

in that case wonging in an out CAN be bad for your health! :devil::joker:

 

[Kasi]

Oh no! I intend to be more anal about it.

What a beautiful attitude. On to infinity.

To paraphrase the Marines, or is it Army, "be as anal as you can be" :grin: :whip:

Even if you do leave every shoe and write down 1.25, 3, wait until until 2 people leave and 3 people join that shoe lmao. Then there's fewer rounds/shoe in + counts when lots of babies come out. And vice-versa.
And heads-up when the dealer doesn't need to complete his hand as often.
And, then, after this, no matter how rounds you played, how often did you bet how much and how far ahead/behind were you after that shoe and how disciplined were you in deviating or not from your betting plan for a 1.25 shoe?

And you're right, that moving the chip stuff is crude, obvious and you still estimate when to move it lol. That's barely the first level of Dante's, I mean Kasi's, 7 circles of analness.

When you make Monk the detective look like a normal guy, you're getting there. Three circles to go. lmao.

I used to get 20 Aces on just my left hand using touching thumb to top of 4 fingers, then the 3 knuckles, then my palm. Then do it with the right-hand. But then betting left-handed seemed like a giveaway. So I'd spin my ring a quarter turn and continue with left-hand. But then that ring stuff seemed like a giveaway so, I'd move each foot to 4 different positions. Then the waitress would come, I'm pigeon toed, my hand is a fist and I can neither stand up to pay her, pay her if I could stand up, or grab the drink if I could do either.

So then, I'd take the drink and say, I don't know - feels like 20-30 Aces or so are gone and go from there lmao.

So, coming full circle, trust me, after you reach the 7th circle, all you know, you ain't there anyway, knowing all you want to know, never will be, and the pursuit of analness has made you just one big as*hole from which you'll never escape. Ask anyone.

How you thinking of handling the "results" stuff of shoes, sessions, evenings, trips etc? Knowing for an absolute fact I played 1000 hands today in 15 shoes always with same pen and players, what you gonna do when you get back to your room that nite or back home after a trip?

So, yeah, like you say, do the best you can with what's comfortable to you.

 

[MJ1]

How you thinking of handling the "results" stuff of shoes, sessions, evenings, trips etc? Knowing for an absolute fact I played 1000 hands today in 15 shoes always with same pen and players, what you gonna do when you get back to your room that nite or back home after a trip?

Based upon how many shoes are played with the recorded data for each shoe, I can then go home and do a post trip analysis of my actual result and see how it compares to the expected result.

This way, if I up or down after several sessions, I know how much of it is due to variance, which can indicate if I am making errors if I am way below my EV. Likewise, if I am way above my EV, at least I will not walk around with an inflated ego b/c I know how much I was expected to win.

With regard to heads up play, I think I would have to use a different number for the avg # of cards used per player. Obviously, it will be less than 2.7 cards/round.

MJ

 

[Kasi]

Based upon how many shoes are played with the recorded data for each shoe, I can then go home and do a post trip analysis of my actual result and see how it compares to the expected result.

This way, if I up or down after several sessions, I know how much of it is due to variance, which can indicate if I am making errors if I am way below my EV. Likewise, if I am way above my EV, at least I will not walk around with an inflated ego b/c I know how much I was expected to win.

With regard to heads up play, I think I would have to use a different number for the avg # of cards used per player. Obviously, it will be less than 2.7 cards/round.MJ

I'm completely with you in case you thought otherwise lol.

Sounds like a reasonable way to estimate to me. And it's always somewhat of a guess anyway in real life, from what I can gather lol.

All I'd suggest is record results per shoe too so that later you can match up similar games. Like it's possible, you may have a different unit in a 4/6 game than a 5/6 game with the same risk, etc. Or decide to back-count a few shoes, etc.

Just match things up with plan you had going in based on what your sim said as best you can.