+EV promotion?

[Whatsmytotal]

Local casino offering the following promo:

100% refund on slot losses in 24 hr period between $100 - $1500.
Video poker not allowed.
Refund payed with slot dollars (which presumably may be used on video poker).

Other annoyances which don't affect the EV include getting paid in 3 installments over the course of a month.

Is this +EV? if yes, what to play, and what is the general strategy?

 

[Richard Munchkin]

Where is this?

Yes, positive ev.

 

[KingHenry]

sweet deal, is this a promotion available to the general public, or only to certain members? i think it makes sense to find the best slot game and play either to a target goal, for the total 24 hours, or till you lose $1,500.

if you lose the 1500 and come back with the slot dollars, you may want to play black and red on the video roulette machine until you hit your needed amount to cash out as someone suggested on another thread to hedge your bets

 

[Sucker]

Find the highest possible denomination machine. If you get significantly ahead, quit; whether it took you 5 minutes or 24 hours. The optimal "quit" point will depend upon the denomination of the machine; for a $100 machine this point will be somewhere around 10 units ahead.

 

[alwayssplitaces]

So you're risking $1500 to win either $1500 in free slot play or $1000 in cash. The $1500 in free slot play isn't going to get you $1500 in cash, it'll get you about $1400 in EV, but that $100 expected loss is more than made up for by the chance of winning >$1000 in the initial trip.

 

[Sucker]

it'll get you about $1400 in EV

This is why it's important to play a higher denomination machine. If you play a nickle machine or maybe even a quarter machine; depending upon your "quit" point, the promotion may even end up being -EV.

Another thing that you have to consider (obviously) is travel expenses, depending upon how far you must travel to get to the place 3 times. Which is why I'm personally not interested in the location of the place, unless it's in Biloxi - where I live; in which case please PM me with the info.

 

[NightStalker]

Play high variance slot machine

Local casino offering the following promo:

100% refund on slot losses in 24 hr period between $100 - $1500.
Video poker not allowed.
Refund payed with slot dollars (which presumably may be used on video poker).

Other annoyances which don't affect the EV include getting paid in 3 installments over the course of a month.

Is this +EV? if yes, what to play, and what is the general strategy?

hit or miss..

 

[Whatsmytotal]

Thanks for the replies. There are a few things I'm still unclear about.

It appears that the strategy is to minimize the number of spins because the slots are obv. -EV. So if the biggest machine I find is $100, with max 5 credits, i would play 3 spins at max credits and hope to hit something on any of those spins? And if I somehow am winning about $1000 after, say, 2 spins, I immediately cash out?

I was wondering if there is any strict mathematical guidelines to this sort of thing, including the EV and variance (just for curiosity).

Also, if I do lose $1500 and get the slot play, is it better to play the Roulette machine, as suggested, or something like a 9:6 video poker? Is the strategy here also to minimize number of spins?

I should mention also, that it is strange that this casino is offering this promo but you have to really search to find something in print. Usually they have an abundance of flyers explaining all the rules. Here I had to seek out the promotions booth and even there there was a one page memo for the staff only. Nice of them to let me read it . I better make sure they will honor the promo before I invest $1500.

And sorry, the casino is nowhere near Biloxi.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Find the highest possible denomination machine. If you get significantly ahead, quit; whether it took you 5 minutes or 24 hours. The optimal "quit" point will depend upon the denomination of the machine; for a $100 machine this point will be somewhere around 10 units ahead.

How is that derived? The quit point I would consider optimum is where you would no longer expect to be behind by the end of the promotion, given the expected loss on the machine.

So let's say you have 10 hours to play, on a 98% machine spinning 400 bets per hour. I'd want to be up by 80 units, because that's my expected loss for the remaining life of the promo and if I don't lose 80 units the promo isn't going to pay me anything.

There could be something I'm overlooking, not something I've extensively studied.

 

[MoldedTruths]

Shoot higher

You are better off making your target higher than you are thinking, say for example 3 or 4 times the amount of the refund. If you reach your target, wonderful. If you bust out, run the freeplay through 1 time on a video blackjack or video poker machine and cash out.

Whatsmytotal, would you be willing to let me in on where this is in a private message thesixthchamber [at] gmail [dot] com? I can actually trade you a similar one worth a few hundred. Thanks!