Expected Fluctuation for a Lifetime at the Tables

[paddywhack]

Book smart does not always convert to street smart. I would say the 3 biggest factors after skill is:

Does he have money
Does he play
Is he daring

A good math background can be very nice.

good cards
:joker::whip:

Can he pull it off for any length of time?


All very good points that will take a long time to actually discover.

But, there's definitely the prospect

 

[blackjack avenger]

Beat That Dead Horse

Assuming you follow the strategy to a tee and are playing in the designated game, it is virtually impossible to be behind after 3M rounds. But this does not mean that one did not go bust somewhere along the way.
SP

Playing 1/8th kelly resizing it is virtually impossible to go bust before 3 million rounds. Oh, and one greatly increases their chances of actually being ahead!

good cards
:joker::whip:

 

[blackjack avenger]

Short vs Lonnnnnnnnnnnnng

The fluctuations that one might experience over 3,000,000 rounds are likely larger than depicted in this study for a few reasons. First of all, the game studied was a double-deck game. It is known that the ratio of win rate : Standard Deviation is significantly lower in shoe games than it is in double-deck games such as the one studied here.
SP

The above statement?
In the short term the better game has higher variance?
Think hourly SD

In the longer term the better game has lower variance?
Think NO

good variance
:joker::whip:

 

[Dopple]

If you play with a greater spread, say 1-25 and dont get booted you will have both a greater ROR and a greater win rate per hour.

If you could turn this SIM thing into some kind of religion I would be interested. I need to find something of real substance and meaning on this earth.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Not Quite

If you play with a greater spread, say 1-25 and dont get booted you will have both a greater ROR and a greater win rate per hour.

If you could turn this SIM thing into some kind of religion I would be interested. I need to find something of real substance and meaning on this earth.

If you have a bet ramp and then just arbitrarily raise the spread then yes you will raise ror. If you set the sim for a higher spread and the same ror then you don't raise said ror.

Sims and math is what we base our play on, if you don't have faith in the math then I can see where it would be very hard to play.

good cards:joker::whip:

 

[Dopple]

So no decent AP should try to advance from the hobby level to more serious play without the use of a sim?

 

[blackjack avenger]

Math is the Rosetta Stone

So no decent AP should try to advance from the hobby level to more serious play without the use of a sim?

I did not say that. The math, computers and sims are what we base our play on. It is what solved the blackjack puzzle. With the speed computers now have and some of the programs written for bj we have a lot more power to solve many of the games riddles. I trust the math of the game vs any hunches or belief system.

good cards

:joker::whip:

 

[BrianCP]

I did not say that. The math, computers and sims are what we base our play on. It is what solved the blackjack puzzle. With the speed computers now have and some of the programs written for bj we have a lot more power to solve many of the games riddles. I trust the math of the game vs any hunches or belief system.

good cards

:joker::whip:

He is right you know, we wouldn't have basic strategy without adding machines. Ed Thorpe developed his systems through computer simulation (using a big effing computer at a university). A few people might've figured it out before then, but obviously they never shared it and couldn't prove it worked without the power of a computer.

 

[Dopple]

Not trying to work you in a corner BA just a question. Thanks for your input.