Extracting winnings from BR

[BMDD]

For the full-timers here.. How much of your winnings do you extract from your bankroll for expenses?

If you want to make the question less personal, how much does extracting a certain portion of winnings affect your overall ROR?

 

[rukus]

For the full-timers here.. How much of your winnings do you extract from your bankroll for expenses?

If you want to make the question less personal, how much does extracting a certain portion of winnings affect your overall ROR?

Don't mean to direct visitors away from here, but bj21 has a few free articles, one of which is precisely what you are asking though it assumes fixed betting and not continuously resized bets. Out of respect for ken i won't post the direct link but check out their homepage and you will find the article down the left hand side..

 

[NightStalker]

you can very well remove your

whole profit every month(or every 100hour/200/300hour of play) assuming you are +ive after that period. In case you are down, you may consider downsizing your bet or putting some money back..

For every period, you are basically starting with the same bankroll which will have same RoR.

RoR is a func of bankroll. The moment u lose a dollar, your RoR increases. The moment u win a dollar, your RoR decrease.

 

[BMDD]

whole profit every month(or every 100hour/200/300hour of play) assuming you are +ive after that period. In case you are down, you may consider downsizing your bet or putting some money back..

For every period, you are basically starting with the same bankroll which will have same RoR.

RoR is a func of bankroll. The moment u lose a dollar, your RoR increases. The moment u win a dollar, your RoR decrease.

I'm assuming that once you extract money it cannot be replenished.

So if everytime you win you go out and spend your cash, but everytime you lose you just keep playing until you're ahead again, would this not significantly increase your overall RoR to the point that you are all but certain to go broke eventually?

 

[kewljason]

I now take out about half of my expected value every few months, but only if I am on the plus side. Say I play 3 months and my expected win for that time for the time and games I have played is 18 grand. I would probably move 10 grand from my BR to my personal accounts assuming that I won at least that amount. This hopefully allows for any errors that I may have made in calculating my EV and/or time played and will allow my bankroll to continually grow. In the event that I am not ahead this amount, or god forbid in the negative, I will refrain from taking out any money until I hit a good run and get back reasonably close to where I should be. I wasn't always able to do it this way in the past when I was playing for lower stakes with a smaller bankroll. It's that situation that makes it very difficult to grow your bankroll. In my first couple years I only made 10-12 grand and needed to spend it all on living expenses.

 

[creeping panther]

Bmdd

For the full-timers here.. How much of your winnings do you extract from your bankroll for expenses?

If you want to make the question less personal, how much does extracting a certain portion of winnings affect your overall ROR?

As a Pro you still needs a home, hopefully not your car,,,food, health insurance,,,soon forced upon you,,,car, car insurance, IRA retirment savings, taxes, etc., as well as everyday expenses. Now it is nice if Mommy and Daddy will help you out, like letting you live at home, investing in a condo for you to live in etc. but as you can see things can get very daunting!!

Now if you are retired and play full time that is much more doable as you already have most expenses covered by you normal jobs retirement benefits.

Or you can play part time and work full time, like most do, and when they are in the 50's and looking at retirement they all of a sudden become most thankful they did.

CP

 

[blackjack avenger]

Expenses Are Costly

Let's say a player has a 13.53% ror and has expenses that equal half of their ev. Their real ror is 36%. This is for fixed bets.

Taking money out of the bank; even winnings, is very costly.:joker::whip:

All those general ror formulas assume all winning are reinvested, when this is not done the ror is higher.

 

[kewljason]

As a Pro you still needs a home, hopefully not your car,,,food, health insurance,,,soon forced upon you,,,car, car insurance, IRA retirment savings, taxes, etc., as well as everyday expenses. :
CP

That's funny. I know a couple guys in vegas, who think they are professional poker players, who fall in this situation. Spend most nights in their car, with occasional midweek comped room. Haven't met any blackjack pro's at this level but they probably are out there. I don't think these people are concerned with IRA's, nor health insurance. probably don't even have car insurance. Food, they can probably get off the casino as well.

 

[NightStalker]

you are correct

I'm assuming that once you extract money it cannot be replenished.

So if everytime you win you go out and spend your cash, but everytime you lose you just keep playing until you're ahead again, would this not significantly increase your overall RoR to the point that you are all but certain to go broke eventually?

Yes, you are right. That's why I said "Remove profits after long period say 250 hours of play", not spend cash after every session. It is assuming that after 250 hours of play you'll be ahead of your starting bankroll. After every 250hours, you are starting a new period with same bank again which will have same RoR.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Not Quite

Yes, you are right. That's why I said "Remove profits after long period say 250 hours of play", not spend cash after every session. It is assuming that after 250 hours of play you'll be ahead of your starting bankroll. After every 250hours, you are starting a new period with same bank again which will have same RoR.

Let's say you start with a 13.53% ror
You use fixed bets
You double your money

If you don't take money out your ror is 1.83% moving forward.

If you take your winnings out your ror is now 13.53%. If you repeat this enough times you will go broke.:joker::whip:

 

[kewljason]

Let's say you start with a 13.53% ror
You use fixed bets
You double your money

If you don't take money out your ror is 1.83% moving forward.

If you take your winnings out your ror is now 13.53%. If you repeat this enough times you will go broke.:joker::whip:

But that is why anyone who plays for a living, would never dream of playing kelly. Most play a small fraction of kelly, like quarter kelly.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Some Difference, Same Conclusion

But that is why anyone who plays for a living, would never dream of playing kelly. Most play a small fraction of kelly, like quarter kelly.

A fixed bet example to further illustrate the point.

A player plays with a .03% ror .25 fixed kelly

He increases his bank by 50%.

If he continues forward his new ror is .0006%

If he removes his winnings his new ror is .03%.

This new ror is very low; however, it is still higher because he took winnings out.

An additional issue. If one does plan to cut bets on losses, by removing winnings one would be closer to potentially having to cut their bets on losses.

The point I am making is if you draw off winnings your ror or even risk of drawdown is higher then you may think.

:joker::whip:

 

[NightStalker]

lol

Let's say you start with a 13.53% ror
You use fixed bets
You double your money

If you don't take money out your ror is 1.83% moving forward.

If you take your winnings out your ror is now 13.53%. If you repeat this enough times you will go broke.:joker::whip:

is this sarcasm ?

Everytime you start, you have RoR of 13.5% and you are comfortable with it. You've choosen to go broke 13.5 times every 100 trial.. Yes, 13.5/100 times you'll go broke. But it mean that if you have won 90 times in a row, you are more probable to go broke next time.. Moreover, when your bankroll drops down to half, your RoR will be 50% which is the time to resize your unit?

Even in your case, suppose one never took any money from the bankroll and keep winning mostly.. At every point, You'll have some RoR>0, and eventually one out of infinite trials, you will go broke

 

[blackjack avenger]

1 in 7 is Pretty High

is this sarcasm ?

Everytime you start, you have RoR of 13.5% and you are comfortable with it. You've choosen to go broke 13.5 times every 100 trial.. Yes, 13.5/100 times you'll go broke. But it mean that if you have won 90 times in a row, you are more probable to go broke next time.. Moreover, when your bankroll drops down to half, your RoR will be 50% which is the time to resize your unit?

Even in your case, suppose one never took any money from the bankroll and keep winning mostly.. At every point, You'll have some RoR>0, and eventually one out of infinite trials, you will go broke

Not sure what you are saying in the first paragraph. 13.53% is about 1 in 7, it would be rare that one would be successful 90 times. So in my example a player could take out winnings; be up overall, but go broke and cannot play. If 7 people do this 1 will probably go broke.

In the real world you eventually can get a large enough lead that you cannot go broke. There are table max's which limit the upward size of your bets, so you start betting smaller and smaller in relation to your overall bank and we don't live forever. If you are willing to resize bets down on losses the ror drops precipitously.

:joker::whip:

 

[blackjack avenger]

To the Original Poster

A brute force approach:

If you have fixed expenses that our less then 5% of your expectation then just cut your bets or lower your bank size by about an equal amount because by taking out money you are cutting your advantage.

and/or

Once your ror gets very low you can begin to draw off more funds.

When you take money out your ror goes up unless your bank is extremely large.

I hope you understood the cautionary examples so be careful.

:joker::whip:

 

[BMDD]

Thanks for all replies. This thread has been informative.

I do appriciate the words of caution, centainly including yours, CP.

Perhaps a bank that would allow for expenses to be covered by half of my EV as well as a quarter years expenses would be a reasonable place to start.

 

[Sonny]

Links to other BJ sites

Out of respect for ken i won't post the direct link but check out their homepage and you will find the article down the left hand side..

It's cool, you can post a direct link. The posting guidelines actually encourage it:

"Posts that mention other sites within the blackjack community are fine. I want this site to be a part of the overall community, so if there is an interesting post on another message board, feel free to mention it and link to it."

The OP probably found the link by now, but here it is:

http://www.bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/overheadeffectonriskofruin.shtml

-Sonny-

 

[rukus]

It's cool, you can post a direct link. The posting guidelines actually encourage it:

"Posts that mention other sites within the blackjack community are fine. I want this site to be a part of the overall community, so if there is an interesting post on another message board, feel free to mention it and link to it."

The OP probably found the link by now, but here it is:

http://www.bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/overheadeffectonriskofruin.shtml

-Sonny-

ha, yup that was the link. noted to self for next time, thanks for the reference sonny!

 

[aslan]

ha, yup that was the link. noted to self for next time, thanks for the reference sonny!

This is after all the premier blackjack site! :1st:

 

[johndoe]

This is after all the premier blackjack site! :1st:

It really is. The others are very, very distant.