Extreme oversimplification

[standard toaster]

sooo trying to explain to a friend as easily as possible what a 2% edge means for a player i came up with this.

A 2% edge is good money! Lets think of this on very simple rounded terms. At a 2% edge, for every $100 you bet you will make $2 in the long run. Not much, but on an average of 100 hands per hour a $10 flat bettor would be betting $1,000 and making $20 an hour. $20 an hour is nothing to quit your job over but there is a plus. This plus is that we can increase that amount by making sure we bet very large during our time of advantage. That $10 bet may become $150 (1-15 Unit spread) and for every $150 bet you would receive $3 over time. To make figures a little more exciting imagine working your bankroll up to the point where you can play at a $50 min table. With that same 1-15 spread you would be betting $50-$750. So for every max bet you make you would be profiting $15. An hour worth of max bets equals out to $1,500... Not a bad deal if you ask me.

Bad example? The hour worth of max bets may be misleading but it is true, correct? Just it would not be possible to have an hour straight worth of max bets.

 

[shadroch]

A lot of banks are paying less than 2% on savings accounts these days.
You are getting a years worth of interest on every hand.

 

[actuary]

A lot of banks are paying less than 2% on savings accounts these days.
You are getting a years worth of interest on every hand.

You are only correct if the player bets his entire bankroll (i.e., our total bets made exceed the bankroll,) just once in the year. Most dedicated counters will bet their bankroll multiple times during a year, so that 2% compounds a number of times during a one year period. You also need to add comps on top of this and you will see no bank can offer anything close to what a decent AP can earn playing blackjack.

 

[FLASH1296]

Any person or book that claims that Card Counting will give you an overall advantage of 2% is full of it.

The real figure is about 1%.

While 1.5% is obtainable, it requires a very good game and playing without cover or camouflage.

When was the last time you put out your MAX bet and split 10s or doubled a soft 20 ?

 

[EasyRhino]

The oversimplication forgets the disadvantage in minus counts, though. Avg bet times avg advantage is the best simplification.

Another problem at the bankroll level is that it also ignores the "drag" of volatility, if you're sizing your betting proportionately with your bankroll. It's more commonly documented when talking about things like the stock market, but it works with card counting bankrolls too.

Let's say you have a $1000 bankroll, and it goes up 10%. Super, you've got $1100. Now, let's say you ramp up your bets proportionally, and lose 10%. Crap, you've lost $110, and you've only got $990. If you resize again, and win 10%, you win $99, and have $1089.

etc.

This doesn't happen if you don't resize bets according to your bankroll.

 

[21forme]

When was the last time you put out your MAX bet and split 10s

Not me, but I was sitting next to a certain Monkey the other day who split 10s (and made the table lose.) Damn Monkey ruined the Sacred Flow!

 

[standard toaster]

Of course there are a ton of factors to consider but for an example of what 2% can mean would this statement be terribly off?

It is a statement meant to encourage someone not shy them away from something they have been working hard at.

 

[Ferretnparrot]

Any person or book that claims that Card Counting will give you an overall advantage of 2% is full of it.

The real figure is about 1%.

While 1.5% is obtainable, it requires a very good game and playing without cover or camouflage.

When was the last time you put out your MAX bet and split 10s or doubled a soft 20 ?

I do that stuff all the time man, im ****in crazy when i play. I split X,X vs 4 , and one time i split tens to four hands.

Yo i think 2 % may be attainable if you backcount, play only positive and manipulate cards through the shuffle for your favor. If not, very close to it escpecially in these four deck games, in my experience playing the 4 deckers, i feel like im ripping them a new one everytime i play them, they are so easy to destroy in so many ways with fewer decks, and a garbage shuffle.

I think the method of comparing it to a banks interest is a good way to explain it.

 

[ccibball50]

I ran a sim on CV Data and it was SD game with 75%. I ran it just to see the results, but HILO with full indexes and a 4-1 spread was just under 3%

 

[FLASH1296]

What you are doing is called "cherry-picking" the data -- presenting just what will support your contention.

SO ... just where do you find "SD game with 75%",

even with highly restrictive rules like: H17, double 11, NDAS

I think that you won't find that penetration for SD anywhere in this world.

Try doing a realistic Sim' please.

 

[ccibball50]

What you are doing is called "cherry-picking" the data -- presenting just what will support your contention.

SO ... just where do you find "SD game with 75%",

even with highly restrictive rules like: H17, double 11, NDAS

I think that you won't find that penetration for SD anywhere in this world.

Try doing a realistic Sim' please.

I have the game I play it on a regular basis. I have been to the last card many times and run out of cards plenty of times. You may not believe me, but I play it 20+ hours a day with a 4-1 spread.


The casino I am talking about takes a different approach. They have low maximum bets to difer card counters from comming there. For example their SD is $5 min and $200 Max. They believe that they can get more hands in and make more money even if a few card counters come in. There DD is $5 -$300 and the shoe is $5 - $500. This pit bosses have even said that there are no rules on how deep penetratoin was. A guy at the table said, ok then run out of cards. She dealt and ran out of cards, picked up the deck and started shuffeling the rest and continued to play. This was the pit boss telling the dealer to do this!!!

One example of how deep they go is, they play 3 hands with 4 players. at 2.5 cards per person, that is 37.5 cards on average that puts the pen at 72%. That is with 4 people playing. One player actually complained and said "Quit dealing 3 hands and just deal 2. 3 hands is bad luck". She ignored him and kept dealing 3 hands. They do not use cut cards they go by feel. These dealers deal deaper the fewer the players at the table. If ther is about 10 cards left, they keep deeling for heads up.

Rules are S17, No DAS, double 10 and 11 only. split 4 hands, Aces split once 1 card for each.

 

[moo321]

What you are doing is called "cherry-picking" the data -- presenting just what will support your contention.

SO ... just where do you find "SD game with 75%",

even with highly restrictive rules like: H17, double 11, NDAS

I think that you won't find that penetration for SD anywhere in this world.

Try doing a realistic Sim' please.

I've seen an isolated dealer that will deal this much. But they're usually violating procedure.

 

[FLASH1296]

ccibbal150,

I apologize as I forgot that there are a few games in remote rural outposts in the U S A where great games can be found for modest stakes.

I stand corrected.

 

[Kasi]

Of course there are a ton of factors to consider but for an example of what 2% can mean would this statement be terribly off?.

Well, it's kind of like Easy Rhino said - the 2% you refer to is most likely an average advantage and avg adv * avg bet=EV.

So maybe your avg bet is 4 units, since you are spreading, so every 100 hands you expect to bet 400 units. At avg adv of 2% that's 8 units/100 hands. So, whether you bet $10 100 times in a row or $150 100 times in a row, either way, you expect to make 8 units or $80.

If you see what I mean lol.

 

[Kasi]

Any person or book that claims that Card Counting will give you an overall advantage of 2% is full of it.

Then why did you spend and what do you call someone who spent so much time memorizing those 6-digit EV's in Don's book when he's clearly so full of it, what with specifying hundreds of ways that's possible

Can you say back-count, like Ferretnparrot said for starters?

 

[nottooshabby]

I have the game I play it on a regular basis. I have been to the last card many times and run out of cards plenty of times. You may not believe me, but I play it 20+ hours a day with a 4-1 spread.


The casino I am talking about takes a different approach. They have low maximum bets to difer card counters from comming there. For example their SD is $5 min and $200 Max. They believe that they can get more hands in and make more money even if a few card counters come in. There DD is $5 -$300 and the shoe is $5 - $500. This pit bosses have even said that there are no rules on how deep penetratoin was. A guy at the table said, ok then run out of cards. She dealt and ran out of cards, picked up the deck and started shuffeling the rest and continued to play. This was the pit boss telling the dealer to do this!!!

One example of how deep they go is, they play 3 hands with 4 players. at 2.5 cards per person, that is 37.5 cards on average that puts the pen at 72%. That is with 4 people playing. One player actually complained and said "Quit dealing 3 hands and just deal 2. 3 hands is bad luck". She ignored him and kept dealing 3 hands. They do not use cut cards they go by feel. These dealers deal deaper the fewer the players at the table. If ther is about 10 cards left, they keep deeling for heads up.

Rules are S17, No DAS, double 10 and 11 only. split 4 hands, Aces split once 1 card for each.

Please tell me this is a typo . . .