F&#k Positive Counts!

Doofus · May 27, 2008

Arrrrrrrgh!!!!!

Another Vegas trip under my belt, another 100 unit loss (on top of a 80 unit loss on my last trip, and a 50 unit loss the one before that). And I'll be darned if almost all my losses this time came in positive counts. Sure, I was able in DD games to drop my bets down in a negative count without drawing any scrutiny, I was able to backcount shoes with precision, but darn it, when I got to TC +4, 5, 6 and I upped my bets, I got absolutely hammered.

Dealer gets a 10, I get a 14. Dealer turns over a 20. Arrgh!

Dealer gets an 8, I get a 17. Arrrgh!

I draw a 20, dealer gets blackjack. Arrrgh!

I sat for two whole hours at my favorite DD game playing either heads up or with only one other player, going to two hands with impunity, raising and lowering my bets on a $5-200 spread without a peep out of the dealer or the PB, and I'll be darned if I didn't get ONE SINGLE SOLITARY FRIGGING BLACKJACK for TWO WHOLE HOURS.

Backcounting shoe games was NO HELP WHATSOEVER. In fact, I lost a lot more backcounting shoes than I did play-all in pitch games.

I must admit to a massive amount of frustration this morning. Wondering if I truly have the stomach for the negative variation this game has. Mrs. Doofus gave me that look last night when I fessed up to my record on the weekend. "Oh, so Mister Card Counter blew all our money this weekend, did he?" How soon she forgets about when I put 240 units in her hand four trips ago.

rukus · May 27, 2008

Doofus said:

you are not alone brother. its something we all experience. just 2 nights ago i saw a +10 TC three quarters though a shoe and max bet the rest of the way, but i kept pulling 18s and 19s and the dealer had a 10 up and down EVERY TIME in this one shoe. on the LAST hand of the shoe, the thing just poured out tens all over the place, i mean finally the whole table had 20s against a dealer 10 ("at least we'll push!" everyone joked but i just kept praying "no ace in the hole, no ace in the hole"), and then dealer flipped an ace from the hole for a BJ - that was not the happy ending i was looking for. needless to say i dropped a huge amount in that shoe. came back to that dealer an hour later on a wong-in, the count sky rocketed again (what are the odds my two biggest TCs of a weekend happened in the same night at the same table!) and it reversed - i pulled 20 after 20 after BJ while the dealer pulled 19 after 18 after 17. made back the drop plus more. you really do need the stomach for this, but more importantly you need the patience and ability and confidence to put that big bet out there time after time after time even while getting slammed. if you cant do that, youre not playing a winning game. Patience is a virtue :devil: . i think we all tend to remember the bad beats way better than we remember that time we wonged in for 200 bucks, caught a blackjack, and walked away. gluck with the significant other, that is one thing i dont have to worry about at least. i think its always hardest to explain the variance of this game to non players.

Automatic Monkey · May 27, 2008

Doofus said:

Arrrrrrrgh!!!!!

Another Vegas trip under my belt, another 100 unit loss (on top of a 80 unit loss on my last trip, and a 50 unit loss the one before that). And I'll be darned if almost all my losses this time came in positive counts. Sure, I was able in DD games to drop my bets down in a negative count without drawing any scrutiny, I was able to backcount shoes with precision, but darn it, when I got to TC +4, 5, 6 and I upped my bets, I got absolutely hammered.

Dealer gets a 10, I get a 14. Dealer turns over a 20. Arrgh!

Dealer gets an 8, I get a 17. Arrrgh!

I draw a 20, dealer gets blackjack. Arrrgh!

I sat for two whole hours at my favorite DD game playing either heads up or with only one other player, going to two hands with impunity, raising and lowering my bets on a $5-200 spread without a peep out of the dealer or the PB, and I'll be darned if I didn't get ONE SINGLE SOLITARY FRIGGING BLACKJACK for TWO WHOLE HOURS.

Backcounting shoe games was NO HELP WHATSOEVER. In fact, I lost a lot more backcounting shoes than I did play-all in pitch games.

I must admit to a massive amount of frustration this morning. Wondering if I truly have the stomach for the negative variation this game has. Mrs. Doofus gave me that look last night when I fessed up to my record on the weekend. "Oh, so Mister Card Counter blew all our money this weekend, did he?" How soon she forgets about when I put 240 units in her hand four trips ago.

Advice: don't share your negative swings with your wife. We can barely understand, we can barely tolerate it and that's fully understanding the math, what makes you think a non-counter can understand or tolerate it? This isn't for them.

Everything you experienced sounds perfectly normal.

InPlay · May 27, 2008

Doofus said:

According to Webster's you had

Main Entry: var·i·ance
Pronunciation: \ˈver-ē-ən(t)s\
Function: noun
Date: 14th century
1 : the fact, quality, or state of being variable or variant : difference, variation <yearly variance in crops>
2 : the fact or state of being in disagreement : dissension, dispute
3 : a disagreement between two parts of the same legal proceeding that must be consonant
4 : a license to do some act contrary to the usual rule <a zoning variance>
5 : the square of the standard deviation

or just plain bad luck. It could be also you have not played your billion hands to even the score out yet. Hang in there a billion hands is just right around the corner if your billion $ bankroll lasts.

sagefr0g · May 27, 2008

Automatic Monkey said:

yeah thats a good point. i tryed for a while just saying every time i go i win $2.50 . that kind of shuts them up to where they just look at you like your a degenerate gambler or something. lol.
other times i drag out my sessions bankroll growth graph and let them see how i've done over time.
but i feel for Doofus. these negative swings are hurtful experiences.

Sonny · May 27, 2008

InPlay said:

He won’t need that much patience. A good DD game has N0 of around 25,000 hands, so 250 hours will give him a good start. At 1,000 hours he would have a 95% chance of reaching his EV. That’s less than a year of part-time play (20 hours a week). If he can find good conditions then he could almost guarantee his EV every year.

-Sonny-

InPlay · May 27, 2008

Are we not all degenerate gambler or something at heart. The thrill ? The hunt? The action? The kill or thrill of being killed ?

rukus · May 27, 2008

InPlay said:

i dont get any thrills or kicks by getting killed. i play to win, not to gamble, and will not sit down at a table if i am not confident i have the long term advantage, even if that long term is 1000 hours of play.

InPlay · May 27, 2008

rukus said:

That's what they all say and that's why we keep coming back for more.

Bashful C. Stupid-Butt · May 27, 2008

I'm sorry, I'm on a winning streak and am at least 15K ahead in this game in a total of maybe 48 hours live play. However, I spent 2 years playing at home with chips to learn card counting and basic strategy.

I know this is wrong, but you'll come to a breaking point sooner or later.

I suggest buying some cards and some chips, and yes get the wife involved. Play black jack don;t just spend the time flipping cards. Learn the game, find a rythm, and try to learn how to control your stack of chips.

If anything, it's good quality time for an hour or two everyday. The upside is that over time you will find that groove and constantly win.

Best of luck and will expect a winner next time...

Doofus · May 28, 2008

rukus said:

It sounds like we were playing at the same table. Next time I will not forget to wear my Secret Card Counter Signet Ring so we will be able to recognize each other. :cool2:

Doofus · May 28, 2008

Automatic Monkey said:

Oh, I know it's normal, which is why I am so %&^$#@ angry! Maybe I ought to take up another hobby that doesn't give me ulcers, like stamp collecting. Nobody ever stroked out while looking at their Inverted Jennies in their scrapbook.

eandre · May 28, 2008

Bashful C. Stupid-Butt said:

I'm sorry, I'm on a winning streak and am at least 15K ahead in this game in a total of maybe 48 hours live play.
Quite a run...$300/hour. May I ask the number of decks, minimum bet, bet spread, and if you remember, your largest single bet. I'm just curious, all your posts are just so positive. Maybe we can all learn.

creeping panther · May 28, 2008

Doofus

Sorry to say this but, I think you are not *there* yet.

For an AP with the proper "SKILLZ" there is no such thing as the "Long run."

Every slippper, every shoe is the Super Bowl and there is none other than the one in front of you that you are battling to win.

Maybe you should consider giving up "counting" and going back to just basic strategy, no shame in that.

CP

rukus · May 28, 2008

Doofus said:

i tried my best - i was wearing a tshirt that says "Back Counter" in big letters on the back :grin:

Automatic Monkey · May 28, 2008

rukus said:

I agree, just being at risk does nothing for me. If you want to gamble, ask out the prettiest cocktail waitress in the place, they taste a lot better than cheques. Advantage play is a mathematical exercise, the link between being smart and being rich.

Automatic Monkey · May 28, 2008

Doofus said:

Maybe lower your bet a bit. Instant stress relief.

Kasi · May 28, 2008

Doofus said:

I was just wondering to what extent or how often or whatever you may go to or not to discover, in some sort of way, how "normal" your results were. Or how unlikely or not the bad luck you experienced actually was.

sagefr0g · May 28, 2008

Kasi said:

me thinks Doofus may prosper from some BJINFO.COM TEAM therapy. :eyepatch:

mdlbj · May 28, 2008

Know you have the correct bankroll to be playing with.

F&#k Positive Counts!

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