Feedback on this strategy please

S

sukh

New Member
#1
#1
hey folks

I've been away from this forum for years.. back dabbling again with blackjack online with live dealer.. started with £200 last week, turned that into £8,000 cashed out £3300 and lost the rest so I'm up £3100.. all done within 3 days .. used oscars grind to get me up to the £5,000 ish but then I had a losing streak on oscars grind and then I had the itch to roll the dice and went for it thinking it's the casinos money now and I was after a big win.. sometimes when you feel lucky you just gotta chase it .. never ends well :(

as oscars grind can see you walk into a losing streak , if these can be managed with betting differently then I'm thinking the odds should change in my favour ..

So the question -

If I play OG, but as follows...

I start with let's say

£25 - I lose
I then bet
Table min- £5 - I lose again

£5 bet again (table min)
I then win this hand , then I bet
£50 next hand - I lose
£5 bet again- I lose
£5 bet again - I win
£75 bet - I lose
£5 bet again- I win
£100 bet - I lose
£5 bet - I win
£125 bet - I win
£150 bet - I win

£25 profit - cycle over

So what I'm saying is if I manage my bank roll better and wait for just that 1 streak of 3 wins in a row I should be up.. maybe the higher I go I may need 4 wins In a row but after my 3rd win I would adjust the bet and bring it down accordingly to just win £25 profit per cycle.

Every always wins 3 hands at least once on the table in a session right ? That's all I would need to win that cycle..

What's yours thoughts guys ?
 
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
This is not a good plan. What I prefer to do is wager based on my advantage. So if I have a 1% advantage then I will wager .7% of my bankroll. You seem to be labouring under the delusion that there is some sort of interplay between the results of one trial and the results of the next. That is not how it works. Your betting strategy is nonsense. Voodoo.
 
D0nnieD0minos

D0nnieD0minos

Active Member
#3
#3
Yes, this is voodoo. Eventually, you will get burned bad. Like playing 34 numbers on roulette. Risk a lot, win a little -- on most spins. Then the number you didn't bet on comes out and you've blown a huge chunk of your BR. Eventually you will be dealt a worst case scenario string of hands.
 
S

Splittingten's

Banned
#4
#4
Progressive betting systems don't work. I would stay away from online blackjack if you're trying to win. Their games are 8 decks with terrible pen (50% is the standard I think) and if there's any evidence of you being a willing player using a winning system they will probably freeze your account and keep your funds and there's nothing you can do about it.
 
Michael Johnson

Michael Johnson

Member
#5
#5
sukh said:
hey folks

I've been away from this forum for years.. back dabbling again with blackjack online with live dealer.. started with £200 last week, turned that into £8,000 cashed out £3300 and lost the rest so I'm up £3100.. all done within 3 days .. used oscars grind to get me up to the £5,000 ish but then I had a losing streak on oscars grind and then I had the itch to roll the dice and went for it thinking it's the casinos money now and I was after a big win.. sometimes when you feel lucky you just gotta chase it .. never ends well :(

as oscars grind can see you walk into a losing streak , if these can be managed with betting differently then I'm thinking the odds should change in my favour ..

So the question -

If I play OG, but as follows...

I start with let's say

£25 - I lose
I then bet
Table min- £5 - I lose again

£5 bet again (table min)
I then win this hand , then I bet
£50 next hand - I lose
£5 bet again- I lose
£5 bet again - I win
£75 bet - I lose
£5 bet again- I win
£100 bet - I lose
£5 bet - I win
£125 bet - I win
£150 bet - I win

£25 profit - cycle over

So what I'm saying is if I manage my bank roll better and wait for just that 1 streak of 3 wins in a row I should be up.. maybe the higher I go I may need 4 wins In a row but after my 3rd win I would adjust the bet and bring it down accordingly to just win £25 profit per cycle.

Every always wins 3 hands at least once on the table in a session right ? That's all I would need to win that cycle..

What's yours thoughts guys ?
Click to expand...
 
Michael Johnson

Michael Johnson

Member
#6
#6
No "system" works in BJ.

If you play a game with a huge personal bankroll at your disposal, you will be stopped by the table limit, before you can double enough to make your money back from a bad streak (good dealer streak.) The casinos know how to set up those table limits to kill any chance of a system working. Think of it like this: If a casino allows no limit on a table, a player can sit down with, say, one million dollar bankroll, and double-up enough to kill them. But if the casino limits the hands to, say $5,000. per hand, then they are limiting the double-up to 8 times, which is more than enough to catch the player. Besides, who wants to risk $3200. to recover a lost $25. bet?
 
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M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
That is not why casinos impose table limits nor is it the reason why this system doesn't work. In the long run you cannot expect to make money by making negative expectation wagers. The more frequently you wager at a disadvantage the more you will expect to lose. In the short run you might get lucky for a bit but the only real way to make money gambling is to make positive expectation wagers.
 
Michael Johnson

Michael Johnson

Member
#10
#10
Meistro said:
That is not why casinos impose table limits nor is it the reason why this system doesn't work. In the long run you cannot expect to make money by making negative expectation wagers. The more frequently you wager at a disadvantage the more you will expect to lose. In the short run you might get lucky for a bit but the only real way to make money gambling is to make positive expectation wagers.
Click to expand...
The table limits act as a throttle.
If you make a $25. bet, and know that when you lose that bet, you can always double up on the next bet, then you will eventually win - which makes your original bet a winner ($50.) Then back to $25., and so on. You might lose 15 hands in a row, but the 16th hand will make your original $25. bet "whole." The only reason a double-up bet doesn't work in real life are the table limits, and that's precisely why casinos impose table limits. They, too, have done the math.

1-25, 2-50, 3-100, 4-200, 5-400, 6-800, 7-1,600, 8-3,200, 9-6,400, 10-12,800, 11-25, 600, 12-51,200, 13-102,400, 14-204,800, 15-409,600, 16-819,200, 17-1,638,400...

Ask yourself, "How many times have you lost 17 hands in a row?" If your bankroll was deep enough, and there were no table limits... Casinos would fail.
 
S

Splittingten's

Banned
#11
#11
According to the Wizard of Odds there is no bank roll large enough to sustain the eventual losing streak of the martingale. I wish I remembered the link.
Google it if you're curious.
The Wizard of Odds claimed that even if you had a billion dollars you would go broke eventually.
 
Michael Johnson

Michael Johnson

Member
#12
#12
Regrettably, we have a "Which comes first? The chicken or the egg. " dilemma. If you have unlimited $$$ as a bankroll, and no table limits, I will beat you every time with the Martingale. But if you have any table limits, you are doomed to that highly improbable (but eventual) x hand losses in a row. In the real world, every casino has table limits, usually with a factor of 5 x or even 8x. (Example: If your table has a minimum bet of $25.00 and a max of $1,000.) Your double-up factor would only allow you to lose 6 in a row. And that's not enough to escape Martingale doom. If you had a $25. minimum and a max of $5,000 per hand, your double -up factor would be 8x. But once you are not allowed to double-up, due to table limits, you are again doomed.
 
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L

LC Larry

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
Michael Johnson said:
Regrettably, we have a "Which comes first? The chicken or the egg. " dilemma. If you have unlimited $$$ as a bankroll, and no table limits, I will beat you every time with the Martingale. But if you have any table limits, you are doomed to that highly improbable (but eventual) x hand losses in a row. In the real world, every casino has table limits, usually with a factor of 5 x or even 8x. (Example: If your table has a minimum bet of $25.00 and a max of $1,000.) Your double-up factor would only allow you to lose 6 in a row. And that's not enough to escape Martingale doom. If you had a $25. minimum and a max of $5,000 per hand, your double -up factor would be 8x. But once you are not allowed to double-up, due to table limits, you are again doomed.
Click to expand...
Wrong and it's been proven. One, you cannot have infinite money, and two, you cannot have infinite money and add to it.
 
Z

ZeeBabar

Banned
#15
#15
Dont forget the doubles and splits. Say you start out losing 4 in a row in a $25 game, ($25, $0, $100, $200) and now you place your 5th bet at $400, you get a pair of 9's against a dealers 6, you split, (now you have 2 bets of $400 each), you get another 9 dealt to you, you split so now you have 3 bets of $400 each. On the first bet, you get a 2, so now you have 9,2 and you doube (that is 4 bets of $400 each) you double and get an 8. Bottomline, you have $1600, not $400 as your 5th bet. Dealer pulls out a 5 and a 10 for 21, you lose $1600. You now need to place a $3200 bet but table limit for a $25 table is $2000 so what do you do?

The doubles and splits can kill a system.
 
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