Feeling Low

[jimbiggs]

I've been counting for about six months now and I've gotten pretty good at it. I use Hi/low. I usually play in Indian casinos in southern Cali. 6 and 8 decks. I vary my bets from $10 on one hand up to $30 on two hands. I don't play at all if the true count goes to -2. I normally do pretty well. In January I won $1300 in about 20 hours of play. I went to vegas in February and played six deck shoes with the same rules H17, DAS, etc. I didn't win a single session. I lost a total of $1500. Now I'm wondering if I'm doing something wrong or if it was just bad luck. Or was I lucky to win at all in the first place.

 

[noshoes]

I think you may need to consider a bigger bet spread to beat a shoe (I have heard that 1-6 is only enough to break even) and probably consider playing multiple hands at low bet and one hand on high bet. I believe it's called "grifters gambit" and it makes alot more sense then spreading out your big bet. You are sort of only giving your self a 1-3 bet spread when you break up your big bet.

 

[E-town-guy]

If I remember correctly Grifter's Gambit has a greater RoR compared with a regular betting scheme used in counting so I don't think a player need employ it unless they're using it to reduce heat.

You definitely need to spread your bets more. If you thought 1-6 spread was sufficient you need to learn some of the basics, perhaps by reading one or two books on counting. I would suggest a minimum of 1-10 spread and bet one square at unfavorable counts and 2 (or more) squares at favorable counts. If you post your BR someone can calculate an ideal betting scheme for you.

To be quite honest with you a profit of $1300/20hr or $65/hr has to be about 10x greater then your expected profit, this along with your big loss is just part of the game and seeing how you haven't played a lot of hours its hard to say whether it is statistically significant. Chances are that it fits within 1 standard deviation of your expected EV.

 

[jimbiggs]

My bankroll is $2000 right now. I usually play at *** and their table minimum is $10. Thanks for your replies.

 

[noshoes]

If I remember correctly Grifter's Gambit has a greater RoR compared with a regular betting scheme...

Why is that? I could see how it has a faster RoR for any particular trip but I don't understand how it has a greater RoR. Maybe cause you placing your big bet on one hand? Please explain this to me.

 

[E-town-guy]

Well I think the "Grifter Gambit" is only supposed to be used in single deck games, so not sure if it will work in 6 deck games. I think the rules have to be just right as well. As for the exact details I'm not sure. Zengrifter posted an interview about how me played at some casino one walked away with a huge profit and still got comped a free meal at the end but I couldn't find it. In that interiview I think he says it has a greater RoR, but for the exact reasons why you'd have to ask him as I could only speculate.

 

[noshoes]

No problem just wondering, that's all. I think, though I don't know for sure, that it can be effective in a shoe game but the real determination is that you have to be playing heads up.

 

[E-town-guy]

Here is the Grifter's interview. Sounds like consolidation betting is good for quality single and double deck games but you'll experience a greater variance or RoR.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=987&highlight=interview

 

[nc-tom]

I've been counting for about six months now and I've gotten pretty good at it. I use Hi/low. I usually play in Indian casinos in southern Cali. 6 and 8 decks. I vary my bets from $10 on one hand up to $30 on two hands. I don't play at all if the true count goes to -2. I normally do pretty well. In January I won $1300 in about 20 hours of play. I went to vegas in February and played six deck shoes with the same rules H17, DAS, etc. I didn't win a single session. I lost a total of $1500. Now I'm wondering if I'm doing something wrong or if it was just bad luck. Or was I lucky to win at all in the first place.

jimbiggs dont get discouraged. noshoes is right you need a bigger betting spread, at least 1 to 10 for 6 deck game. One question I have of you is if you were in Vegas in feb what were you doing playing 6 deck shoes? You can find with alittle effort better 1 and 2 deck games there where your betting spread would not have to be as much to get an edge.Search for better games next time your in LV.

 

[jimbiggs]

To be honest, I don't really see how a counter could have much of an advantage playing single or double deck. They place the cut card in the middle and you end up with poor penetration and fewer high count opportunities. I did try single and double deck on various occasions and my results have always been bad. That's why I prefer shoe games. I do realize now that I need to vary my bet size more, but on my trip to Vegas it would not have helped. I couldn't win a hand no matter what I was betting. I kept thinking I would do better the next session, but my luck never turned.

 

[PokerJunky]

To be honest, I don't really see how a counter could have much of an advantage playing single or double deck. They place the cut card in the middle and you end up with poor penetration and fewer high count opportunities. I did try single and double deck on various occasions and my results have always been bad. That's why I prefer shoe games. I do realize now that I need to vary my bet size more, but on my trip to Vegas it would not have helped. I couldn't win a hand no matter what I was betting. I kept thinking I would do better the next session, but my luck never turned.

Your results from counting are based on long term expectations. In the short term you will experience negative runs (some pretty gut wrenching), but you should always look for quality games (i.e. good penetration, empty tables). Your bet spread is important and should be based on your bankroll. You should be able to get away with a higher bet spread on a $10 table - just make sure you have the proper bankroll to make these higher bets...