~Ferrets Law~

[Ferretnparrot]

Again, adding a round is not helpful if it does not increase penetration. Not hitting in the middle of a shoe does not increase penetration. All of the things mentioned in this thread are easy to sim.

The end result would be to gain extra hands per period of time, by gaining hands at player advantage in the same shoe you are playing.

It will not effect the ev you gain hand for hand, but rather the cumulative ev from the remaining portion of cards to be dealt. Though in actuality, the ev hand for hand will be slightly diminished by trivial playing ineficiency, the game from additional hands will be larger and as a net, the process wil show increase in cumulative EV from the remaining cards.

While there is no way of knowing if the shoe will go negetive and the extra hands will be not in player favor or not, it shoudl be realised that the count will sway at random, and for every time the extra cards reslut in non playor favorable hands, there shoudl be an equal number of times where the coutn increases, and the extra hands are at a higher ev than they were before. The law of TC kinda says that on average the extra hands should be played at the same player advantage as the hand where the strategy deviation occured for the goal of attaining extra hands.

 

[stophon]

I know its trivial, but you also have to subtract off the extra time it takes to complete the extra round. If your making 60 an hour and the extra round takes 1 minute then that just cost you a dollar.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

If you are in the middle of a shoe, an extra card used in the round may or may not add to penetration. It is as likely to add a round as subtract a round. And adding a round at that point isn't even good as it means a bad round as per the cut card effect. It is happenstance. There is no way to predict the effect.

If you are just before the cut card, and you know it, and the count is high, you have a chance of adding to penetration. Unfortunately, decisions probably would not make any difference. The most common coin-toss decision is 16vT. At a high count it might make sense to avoid a hit to get an extra round. One problem, that's the normal play in a high count.

I've simmed all this, and it turns out almost all of the (tiny) advantage from card conservation comes from plays a counter would make anyway: standing, doubling and surrendering. The only common index plays that reverse the effect are splitting 10's and the soft doubles on A8. My reason for this sim is to see what effect a non-Wonging counter has on a civilian at the table. It's small but definitely there, and positive. In SD with a cut card it can be a very strong effect, but not usually worth misplaying a hand for an extra round.