Finally had a negative session

[Jozsef]

Im a new counter here and I've won my past 4 or 5 sessions and I k new it was inevitable but wow does it suck!!!

Dealer up card 6

the count is high and I get 2/2... Split.. delt a 12 -- stand, t hen I get another 2 so I split that..on the second hand 8 dbl down and hit a 6...another stiff, yikes....third hand i get another 10...12...stand yikes

dealer turns over 16, then gets a 2... 400 bucks gone in a second

i was up a couple hundred bucks then too, after that i the count was high and i was laying bombs and losing hand after hand all while the ploppies flat betting were winning

i know it happens, but i had to share with some ppl who would understand :cry:

 

[Machinist]

Yup its a crap deal..But if if was easy and no variance,,, every monkey would be doing it!!!! So i say ya to variance!!!!!!!! Suck feeling, but you will get used to it if you choose to continue in the AP world....

Machinist

 

[Jozsef]

Learned a lot. I lost my discipline, I should've taken a break after 1 hour. I'm in it for the long haul:grin:

 

[psyduck]

Jozsef, what you described is not uncommon.

I am a low stake weekend player playing mostly 6deck shoe games. It took me a while to realize that there is not that much to be excited about at high counts.

First of all, high count does not happen a lot in shoe games (eg, TC5 happens only about 1% of the time in the game I play). And then when it happens, I only have less than 4% advantage. That means the chance of winning is less than 52%. I still have more than 48% chance of losing the hand. It is mathematically correct to bet big at this time, but without a large bankroll, one can easily go belly up.

The more you play at high counts the closer you will be to the theoretical expectation. However, I know I will never encounter a large number of plays at high counts just playing a few hours a weekend. As a result I do not go nuts at high counts to limit loss if cards do not fall my way. Another reason to limit loss is to avoid hearing the wife's usual comment: I told you counting does not work!

 

[Jozsef]

Jozsef, what you described is not uncommon.

I am a low stake weekend player playing mostly 6deck shoe games. It took me a while to realize that there is not that much to be excited about at high counts.

First of all, high count does not happen a lot in shoe games (eg, TC5 happens only about 1% of the time in the game I play). And then when it happens, I only have less than 4% advantage. That means the chance of winning is less than 52%. I still have more than 48% chance of losing the hand. It is mathematically correct to bet big at this time, but without a large bankroll, one can easily go belly up.

The more you play at high counts the closer you will be to the theoretical expectation. However, I know I will never encounter a large number of plays at high counts just playing a few hours a weekend. As a result I do not go nuts at high counts to limit loss if cards do not fall my way. Another reason to limit loss is to avoid hearing the wife's usual comment: I told you counting does not work!

So are you using a limited bet spread?

 

[FLASH1296]

W t f ?

psyduck, was that a typo ?

Please clarify your comment:

"TC 5 happens only about 1% of the time in the game I play. … I have less than 4% advantage."

 

[paddywhack]

Hope it was a typo

psyduck, was that a typo ?

Please clarify your comment:

"TC 5 happens only about 1% of the time in the game I play. … I have less than 4% advantage."

If it's not, that's one nasty game.....


paddy

 

[psyduck]

Paddywhack and Flash,

There was no typo in the two numbers I posted. I like to know the frequency of TC5 (HiLo based on per deck) and the corresponding advantage based on initial bet for YOUR shoe games.

 

[FLASH1296]

What count in what game gives you a 4% advantage at T.C. +5 ?

 

[psyduck]

What count in what game gives you a 4% advantage at T.C. +5 ?

I said less than 4% initial advantage in a 6deck shoe game. Does it sound too high or too low?

 

[FLASH1296]

Not remotely close to 5%

Your advantage at T. C. +5 depends on the rule set in place and the count
that you are using BUT in a typical shoe game, playing with a popular
Level One Count, e.g. Hi-Lo, you will be approaching a 2% advantage.
With the far more efficient Level Two Counts e.g. Zen or Hi-Opt II
your advantage would be substantially less, about 1.5%

 

[psyduck]

Your advantage at T. C. +5 depends on the rule set in place and the count
that you are using BUT in a typical shoe game, playing with a popular
Level One Count, e.g. Hi-Lo, you will be approaching a 2% advantage.
With the far more efficient Level Two Counts e.g. Zen or Hi-Opt II
your advantage would be substantially less, about 1.5%

To be exact, my advantage on initial bet at TC5 (HiLo) for the 6deck shoe game is 3.75%. The frequency of TC5 is 0.99%.

 

[BJgenius007]

I said less than 4% initial advantage in a 6deck shoe game. Does it sound too high or too low?

Too high. Should be 2% when TC is +5.

True count vs. estimated advantages using Hi Lo:
TC Advantage
-1 -1%
0 -0.5%
+1 0%
+2 0.5%
+3 1%
+4 1.5%
+5 2%
+6 2.5%
+7 3%
+8 3.5%
+9 4%
+10 4.5%

 

[FLASH1296]

We all make mistakes ...

"To be exact, my advantage on initial bet at TC5 (*HiLo*) for the 6deck shoe game is 3.75%. The frequency of TC5 is 0.99%."

IF you are playing a game with NO House Advantage, you would still NOT approach 5%

 

[psyduck]

Too high. Should be 2% when TC is +5.

True count vs. estimated advantages using Hi Lo:
TC Advantage
-1 -1%
0 -0.5%
+1 0%
+2 0.5%
+3 1%
+4 1.5%
+5 2%
+6 2.5%
+7 3%
+8 3.5%
+9 4%
+10 4.5%

What do you mean "should be"? Did you run a simulation and see what it really should be?

 

[psyduck]

"To be exact, my advantage on initial bet at TC5 (*HiLo*) for the 6deck shoe game is 3.75%. The frequency of TC5 is 0.99%."

IF you are playing a game with NO House Advantage, you would still NOT approach 5%

I never said approaching 5%.

 

[Nynefingers]

To be exact, my advantage on initial bet at TC5 (HiLo) for the 6deck shoe game is 3.75%. The frequency of TC5 is 0.99%.

This just doesn't seem at all right. Can you post some more details of the game? I ran a sim using hilo, and even with 3.5/6 pen, flooring true counts, you'll see a +5 2.43% of the time. And even with S17 DAS RSA Sr and suited blackjacks paying 2:1, you are still only at 3.64% advantage at that count. Something doesn't add up...

 

[psyduck]

This just doesn't seem at all right. Can you post some more details of the game? I ran a sim using hilo, and even with 3.5/6 pen, flooring true counts, you'll see a +5 2.43% of the time. And even with S17 DAS RSA Sr and suited blackjacks paying 2:1, you are still only at 3.64% advantage at that count. Something doesn't add up...

6deck
1-1.5 decks out
double on any two cards
resplit to 4 hands including As (receiving one card for A split)
DAS
LS
BJ pays 1.5 to 1
insurance pays 2 to 1
H17
floor TC
HiLo play all using my own indices.
simulated 500 million rounds