Finding the Perfect Stop Loss

[BigFish]

So, in hopes of perfecting my game further, I'm trying to find the perfect stop loss.

It's clear it has to be 'deep' enough that you can play through enough losing hands to keep in the game.

But 'shallow' enough that you can make up for a bad session relatively quickly (or even at all LOL).

I like to assume 33% of hands will be winners. And that, obviously, is part of the equation when considering a stop loss.

So I'm keen to hear your discussion on the perfect stop loss strategy....

 

[Mr. T]

Quit if you lose 10 units in less than 20 minutes.

 

[shadroch]

So, in hopes of perfecting my game further, I'm trying to find the perfect stop loss.

It's clear it has to be 'deep' enough that you can play through enough losing hands to keep in the game.

But 'shallow' enough that you can make up for a bad session relatively quickly (or even at all LOL).

I like to assume 33% of hands will be winners. And that, obviously, is part of the equation when considering a stop loss.

So I'm keen to hear your discussion on the perfect stop loss strategy....

Learn that all your life is one big session and forget about managing your individual sessions. Stop playing when you are down to your busfare, are tired or hungry, or have consumed too much alcohol. Other than that, keep playing.

 

[BigFish]

Learn that all your life is one big session and forget about managing your individual sessions. Stop playing when you are down to your busfare, are tired or hungry, or have consumed too much alcohol. Other than that, keep playing.

Love that. And have even had that approach from time to time. Unfortunately, we live in a real world with real limits on pots.

I like Ken's advice that losing streaks are a reality (not an illusion of math) because various real world factors intrude on the pure math of the game, (like the impurity of shuffling, etc.). So, in that case, stopping at a stop-loss and coming back at the game later makes sense. So I'm still a fan of stop loss.

Completely agree with you about watching for mind and body starting to malfunction on you and interfere with your game. I'm a huge fan of playing 'bright and clean'.

 

[BigFish]

Quit if you lose 10 units in less than 20 minutes.

So, essentially you're advocating 25% stop loss (assuming a 40 unit session pot) with a time factor element.

Why do you think the time limit is more helpful than, say, the 20% drop rule?

 

[tensplitter]

The most important rule is that you never stop playing when the count is positive. Even if you reach your stop loss.

 

[BigFish]

Good point.

 

[Sonny]

Here's my advice: Quit playing when you think that a stop-loss limit will make a difference.

-Sonny-

 

[BigFish]

Well there's an interesting answer that I didn't even expect. Food for thought there.

My first thought is that it doesn't quite address that skew from things like imperfect shuffling, line up in the CSM output shoe, dealers that do a shallow pen, etc.

 

[Sonny]

In real-world situations, none of those things have an impact on a basic strategy player.

-Sonny-

 

[Mr. T]

Here's my advice: Quit playing when you think that a stop-loss limit will make a difference.

-Sonny-

Now you are talking my kind of talk.
In the real world there is such a thing as superstition, jinks, voodoo, etc. I believe as you become more of a gambler one tends to get superstitious about something or other. I would call it human nature.
Of couse if you are living only in the world of math there are no such thing whatsoever.

 

[flyingwind]

In real-world situations, none of those things have an impact on a basic strategy player.

-Sonny-

Is the original poster (OP) a basic strategy player or a counter?

 

[Coach R]

So, in hopes of perfecting my game further, I'm trying to find the perfect stop loss.

It's clear it has to be 'deep' enough that you can play through enough losing hands to keep in the game.

But 'shallow' enough that you can make up for a bad session relatively quickly (or even at all LOL).

I like to assume 33% of hands will be winners. And that, obviously, is part of the equation when considering a stop loss.

So I'm keen to hear your discussion on the perfect stop loss strategy....

I just wanted to ask, do you count? or do you just play the proper strat. If you count, keep playing when the true count is in your favor, if it's not stop, regardless of your bankroll. It's going to disappear if you play in a - count. If it is a good count, play your bankroll, that's what a playing bankroll is for. You say play down to 25% of your bankroll, if your B.R. is $2000.00 and your playing down to 25% then your true bankroll is only $1500.00 A bankroll is money for gambling only that you can live without. not food,gas, and rent money.

 

[Sonny]

Is the original poster (OP) a basic strategy player or a counter?

Progression player.

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=19798

-Sonny-

 

[sagefr0g]

Now you are talking my kind of talk.
In the real world there is such a thing as superstition, jinks, voodoo, etc. I believe as you become more of a gambler one tends to get superstitious about something or other. I would call it human nature.
Of couse if you are living only in the world of math there are no such thing whatsoever.

yup. just me maybe but i can really relate to all these questions bigfish has been asking. just starting out with a small bankroll with a lot to learn one is going to wonder about a lot of things, lol.
and he's been getting some great answers, imho.
but yeah it's a big world and before more advanced math people somehow managed to survive.
so with blackjack, incomplete knowledge and understanding, imperfect skills and a small bankroll ........ well some solid basic strategy play and employing stop loss and heck, lol, maybe even a stop win isn't likely gonna hurt anything. just maybe keep in mind that as far as the stops, well there isn't anyway to really know it they helped or hurt matters as far as your play goes.
well to me some sort of stop loss can if nothing else slow down a slow death, lol. conserve your time while you get your act together, maybe.
stop win, well i guess the same thing, but there you at least have a little more money than when you started ....... for a while.
so you are getting loans from Snideley Whiplash (the variance & ev king) at the casino and paying them back at his whim, lol.
so as far as stop loss's & stop wins one can have a 'yardstick' a way to measure a given game sorta thing. just make a sim of the games one plays, then you can know the expected value and standard deviations of the games. knowing these things one can at least have a road map of sorts that can kind of let you know where you stand in the ballpark, albeit in a dark ballpark, lol.
but heck in my ignorance, what i do is sim for both a basic strategy player and a perfect counter, sorta thing. now i know how the two stack up against one another. and then i can know how my play stacks up against those two. i also know because of the gambler's fallacy that my past play no matter how atrocious my voodoo sins and poor play have been doesn't mean squat. so that means, whoo hoo, i might not even have to pay back those loans to Snideley, lol. and that doesn't mean one shouldn't strive to make the best positive ev plays in the future, it just means there has been some water gone under the bridge.
so with some luck and hopefully improvement in skills one just might make it.
edit: hmm, but it would be best to just flat bet if not counting & no progression.....

 

[flyingwind]

Here's my advice: Quit playing when you think that a stop-loss limit will make a difference.

-Sonny-

I think this rule can apply to CC, too. There are losses that get you so steamed that you just cannot think straight. The anger will cloud your decisions.

 

[blackchipjim]

stop loss/bankrolling

There are a few ways to think about you stopping when losing. First if you are resizing your bets on depletion of your bankroll at a given time you have arrived at stop. When your bankroll for the trip or sessions whatever it is has reached the point of insufficient funds to bet effectivlly you stop. If your bankroll reaches a point where you are only making five bucks an hour instead of thirty because you can't bet what you are suppose to then you have a decision to make.

 

[Renzey]

So, in hopes of perfecting my game further, I'm trying to find the perfect stop loss. So I'm keen to hear your discussion on the perfect stop loss strategy....

Two basic strategy blackjack brothers use their own separate stop-loss strategies when they play.
Brother Bob religiously changes tables after 4 consecutive losses. If he loses his first 4 hands at the next two tables, he's done for the day.
Brother Bill will stay at the same table until he's lost 12 in a row, at which point he quits for the day.
Which brother is more likely to get "stop-lossed out" for the day?

 

[kewljason]

Two basic strategy blackjack brothers use their own separate stop-loss strategies when they play.
Brother Bob religiously changes tables after 4 consecutive losses. If he loses his first 4 hands at the next two tables, he's done for the day.
Brother Bill will stay at the same table until he's lost 12 in a row, at which point he quits for the day.
Which brother is more likely to get "stop-lossed out" for the day?

In theory 12 straight losses is 12 straight losses, whether it happens at one table or 3, no? However, Brother bill could be playing in a severe negative shoe and not know it, which could slightly increase the his chances.