Front counting

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#1
I use this term to attract attention to my post.

I don't get too much heat where I play and I need to play a conservative game avoiding all negatives. Since I have my seat established and only need to go to the facilities so often it is much better for me to just sit a few out. That way if the count improves I am right there and if it worsens I can bail to the head for the rest of the shoe. May question is if any other players sit a few out, how it works for you, and what you think would be the limit for sitting a few out.

To make the regulars happy I usually don't get back in until the table has gone bad for the players. It it gets better after I get back in I become the instant savior.
 
#2
I'll leave it to the professionals to give you the statistics and nitty gritty details, correct me if I'm wrong here guys. But the effect of fewer other players at the table will simply mean less cards coming out per round while back counting, but more hands/hour for you when you begin playing. Think about it, if you sit down at a table with 4 other people you'll have to wait for ploppys and guys who like to talk a lot to make their moves half the time whereas by yourself, you can zip through the shoe as fast as you like. And more hands/hour, assuming you are an advantage player who truly knows his stuff, means more money!

As Don demonstrated in BJA (see chapter 6, p 67-89), "floating advantage" (the idea that the deeper into a shoe you are, the more of an edge you have at a given true count) is really more of a theoretical advantage than anything you can use in a real game. So while it's nice when more cards come out per round with more people at the table you are observing to get to those smaller (thanks Dummy) denominators in determining true count, there's no real advantage to more people at the table. In fact you should be looking for those one-on-one with the dealer or one or two other player opportunites whenever possible.

As for the limit on sitting out hands at the table, you say you don't think you attract too much heat which is good, but it depends how much risk you are willing to take. A conservative AP may tell you: "Sitting out when the count goes south and jumping back in when it goes back up is just asking get a tap on the shoulder eventually. You may not see the pit making a fuss, but the eye in the sky is always watching and they'll catch on sooner or later." A more aggressive AP may say: "If you haven't gotten any heat so far, then why change a thing? If they're dumb enough to let you sit at the table and play only the hands where you have an advantage, then take their money!" My opinion is somewhere in the middle (I'm not that into astrology, but I am a Libra after all!): if you're pretty friendly with the regulars and even some of the dealers and pit bosses and your play hasn't seemed to attract any unwanted attention, you're probably good to keep doing what you're doing. If you want to take some precautions, don't be too obvious by jumping back in with a huge bet spread jump at a high true count, bet slightly above your minimum or below what the TC dictates you should and gradually raise after wins to the proper amount for your bet spread. I assume you only sit out after a loss since doing so after a win when the count drops would be suspicious. Basically, employ a few camouflage techniques, don't get greedy, and I think you'll be fine doing what you're doing. Keep in mind though that the longer you play, the more you have to adapt and that may mean shorter and less frequent sit outs and more table hopping, to name a few.
 
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Dummy

Well-Known Member
#3
bbreines said:
So while it's nice when more cards come out per round with more people at the table you are observing to get to those greater denominators in determining true count, there's no real advantage to more people at the table
Typo alert.

I play for decent stakes. I have learned that if the count gets bad enough that you want to lower your bet or sit out you are best off leaving the table. There are a lot more things to do than take a bathroom break. Your body needs a lot more than just evacuation. But when you leave actually do something so it isn't obvious you are just waiting for the next shoe. I bet you can think of at least a half dozen things to do other than going to the restroom. That said I still find a way to play fewer hands when losing in a negative situation. Remember every round the count drops was a plus EV round where the cards that came out during the round are what you would expect in a high TC. You are likely to win these rounds. After all those plus EV rounds that made the count so negative you will need to play through a lot of negative EV rounds for the count to recover. While you can't bet in anticipation of such positive EV rounds in a negative count this can be used to your advantage if you think about your needs while getting away with playing at the table without losing money in the negative counts you see. Remember any idiot can watch one round and see the cards that came out and check the discards and know how much the TC changed that round and in what direction. Knowing this is the easiest thing for them to see can be very useful when it comes to longevity. Of course you won't be playing optimally but you will be able to win more in the long run if you can play for a much longer time. A robot can count cards optimally but won't last long in most casinos, especially those with good games. An artist can give up very little EV and count cards for a very long time in almost any casino.

Like say your sim says it is optimal to bet $10 at disadvantages and $50 at your unit bet of your first advantage bet for advantage of .5%. Off the top 3 things can happen. You see a disadvantage round (round that has a negative RC) that puts the count in advantage territory where you need to bet 5 times your minimum bet. You see an advantage round (positive RC round) that makes the count drop. The count doesn't change much meaning you played a near neutral round. In the first case you now need to make a $50 advantage unit bet which is a reasonable bet move from $25 off the top bet but a quintuple jump bet from $10 minimum bet. In the second case you had a bigger bet out for an advantage round that was not predicted. In the third case you played at a small disadvantage and can either bet less or bet $25 again depending on the outcome of the hand or other factors. Of course this advise should be tempered by the quality of the game you play. If it doesn't offer LS this is pretty aggressive cover because it takes to much a count move to get to your advantage bet unit bet off the top of a shoe. But you make your 15:1 spread look like 6:1 spread or 20:1 spread look like an 8:1 spread. Just remember what BigPlayer says is the key to being allowed to play is being willing to bet more at a disadvantage in anticipation of a jump to an advantage bet on the next round so the bet jump seems reasonable to the casino. If the count drops back you played an advantage round at a higher bet in a disadvantage count. If the count goes up you can double up to the appropriate advantage bet you need to be making without looking unusual. But if your bet jump is 5 times your last bet, as the optimal ramp suggests you do, you are painting a counter sign on you. And if you bet 2 times your minimum bet you are seriously under betting your advantage and may be under betting the proper bet for a bunch of advantage rounds unless you want to draw a lot of heat.

I guess your approach depends on what the area you are playing is like. If casinos abound you can play a shoe or two and go to the next casino then you can be more aggressive with very short visits. In areas where the next casino is too far to be a viable option, or in one of your local casinos you need to adjust your play so you can play longer without heat.
 
#4
Dummy said:
Typo alert.

I play for decent stakes. I have learned that if the count gets bad enough that you want to lower your bet or sit out you are best off leaving the table. There are a lot more things to do than take a bathroom break. Your body needs a lot more than just evacuation. But when you leave actually do something so it isn't obvious you are just waiting for the next shoe. I bet you can think of at least a half dozen things to do other than going to the restroom. That said I still find a way to play fewer hands when losing in a negative situation. Remember every round the count drops was a plus EV round where the cards that came out during the round are what you would expect in a high TC. You are likely to win these rounds. After all those plus EV rounds that made the count so negative you will need to play through a lot of negative EV rounds for the count to recover. While you can't bet in anticipation of such positive EV rounds in a negative count this can be used to your advantage if you think about your needs while getting away with playing at the table without losing money in the negative counts you see. Remember any idiot can watch one round and see the cards that came out and check the discards and know how much the TC changed that round and in what direction. Knowing this is the easiest thing for them to see can be very useful when it comes to longevity. Of course you won't be playing optimally but you will be able to win more in the long run if you can play for a much longer time. A robot can count cards optimally but won't last long in most casinos, especially those with good games. An artist can give up very little EV and count cards for a very long time in almost any casino.

Like say your sim says it is optimal to bet $10 at disadvantages and $50 at your unit bet of your first advantage bet for advantage of .5%. Off the top 3 things can happen. You see a disadvantage round (round that has a negative RC) that puts the count in advantage territory where you need to bet 5 times your minimum bet. You see an advantage round (positive RC round) that makes the count drop. The count doesn't change much meaning you played a near neutral round. In the first case you now need to make a $50 advantage unit bet which is a reasonable bet move from $25 off the top bet but a quintuple jump bet from $10 minimum bet. In the second case you had a bigger bet out for an advantage round that was not predicted. In the third case you played at a small disadvantage and can either bet less or bet $25 again depending on the outcome of the hand or other factors. Of course this advise should be tempered by the quality of the game you play. If it doesn't offer LS this is pretty aggressive cover because it takes to much a count move to get to your advantage bet unit bet off the top of a shoe. But you make your 15:1 spread look like 6:1 spread or 20:1 spread look like an 8:1 spread. Just remember what BigPlayer says is the key to being allowed to play is being willing to bet more at a disadvantage in anticipation of a jump to an advantage bet on the next round so the bet jump seems reasonable to the casino. If the count drops back you played an advantage round at a higher bet in a disadvantage count. If the count goes up you can double up to the appropriate advantage bet you need to be making without looking unusual. But if your bet jump is 5 times your last bet, as the optimal ramp suggests you do, you are painting a counter sign on you. And if you bet 2 times your minimum bet you are seriously under betting your advantage and may be under betting the proper bet for a bunch of advantage rounds unless you want to draw a lot of heat.

I guess your approach depends on what the area you are playing is like. If casinos abound you can play a shoe or two and go to the next casino then you can be more aggressive with very short visits. In areas where the next casino is too far to be a viable option, or in one of your local casinos you need to adjust your play so you can play longer without heat.
Thanks (not so) Dummy, good catch! I tend to agree with ya here on playing through slightly negative EV rounds, especially earlier in the shoe. And leaving the table instead of sitting out and waiting for it to go back up, again it depends on the environment of your casino and availability of good tables, but I side with Dummy here as well. I follow the advice of leaving the table when the count drops to TC -1 or less and sticking out anything between -1 and 0.
 
#5
If a 6 deck shoe is like half way thru and the count is going south I’ll grab a smoke real slow and blow off the dealers reminder to lay a bet and just say I’m smoking. Also easier to shuffle track a few patterns. If it flips up then that gives me a shot at raising my bet higher than previously. Maybe even go two hands depending on what’s up and act like I just wanna GTFO and get it over with. Or I might just color up after observing and say I wanna break.
 
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