Game comparison (confused)

[monopoly]

I posted a question not too long ago about a horrible experience (http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=13177) and I was told the game I was playing was bad in the responses.

The casino I was playing at when I posted that above mentioned thread had the following game:
8 decks, S17, DAS, No Surrender. (Estimated casino edge for these rules: 0.47 %)

So I'm about to make a trip to a city near me which offers the following game:
4 decks, H17, DAS, Late Surrender. (Estimated casino edge for these rules: 0.52 %)

According to what I have read here, the less decks, the better it is for a counter... but when I went to this site's Strategy Engine, and I compared the two games... it says the casino has less edge in my current game than the one with less decks that i'm about to go to...

Can someone please shed some light on this.

Kind regards

 

[shadroch]

One game the dealer stands on all 17s, the other the dealer hits soft 17.
Surrender is not all that big for the flat better. A counter wants it to protect his big bets on a stiff, not to protect against all stiffs.

 

[monopoly]

shadroch, thanks for responding. But I wanted to know which of the games i mentioned above is better, and why.

 

[kewljason]

shadroch, thanks for responding. But I wanted to know which of the games i mentioned above is better, and why.

well you already know whick game is better. The game your currently playing is .05% better. As shadrock tried to explain, the dealer hiting soft 17's in the second game gives the house an addition edge of about .21%. Late surrender makes up about .08% of that edge. 4 decks instead of 8 makes up another 08%, leaving the second game roughly .05% worse, all other things being equal.

 

[Blue Efficacy]

shadroch, thanks for responding. But I wanted to know which of the games i mentioned above is better, and why.

If you're counting cards then 4 decks, defnitely, assuming equal penetration. The 4 deck game will see more high counts.

If flat betting BS, then the 8 deck game is better. The S17 gives a lower edge to the house overall.

 

[shadroch]

Better in what way? You already know which game has the lower edge. How many decks are they actually dealing? An 8 deck shoe that deals 6 decks before shuffling is better than a four deck that only deals two. Are the shoes shuffled at all, or are they CSMs?
You aren't giving enough info to really get the answers you want.

 

[iCountNTrack]

I posted a question not too long ago about a horrible experience (http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=13177) and I was told the game I was playing was bad in the responses.

The casino I was playing at when I posted that above mentioned thread had the following game:
8 decks, S17, DAS, No Surrender. (Estimated casino edge for these rules: 0.47 %)

So I'm about to make a trip to a city near me which offers the following game:
4 decks, H17, DAS, Late Surrender. (Estimated casino edge for these rules: 0.52 %)

According to what I have read here, the less decks, the better it is for a counter... but when I went to this site's Strategy Engine, and I compared the two games... it says the casino has less edge in my current game than the one with less decks that i'm about to go to...

Can someone please shed some light on this.

Kind regards

If you are counting card, using the same betting and playing strategy. 4D H17 DAS LS with 75% is still much superior to a 90% S17 DAS 8D game.

The "fewer decks" rule as you can see is only more beneficial if you are counting cards (granted you have a decent pen). If you are just playing BS it really doesn't make much difference, because you might have to play 500000 hands to notice the difference

 

[monopoly]

Blue Efficacy, I'm counting cards. And the penetration on both games is about 75% to 80%. Can you explain how I'll be seeing more high cards, if the true count is what really matters.. And is it really worth it going to this city with the game i mentioned above.

shadroch, yes I'm of course playing on shoes that are shuffled... considering I'm counting, CSM's wouldn't work. What other information would you like, I'd be glad to share it with you.

Thanks so much guys, my trip is tomorrow and I'd love to keep you guys updated... just wondering if it's worth it... I always thought the less decks, the better... but that strategy engine on this site scared me...

Cheers

 

[monopoly]

iCountNTrack, thanks so much for your encouraging response! I'd love it if you could explain why it is better, just so I have an idea.

 

[sagefr0g]

iCountNTrack, thanks so much for your encouraging response! I'd love it if you could explain why it is better, just so I have an idea.

one thing on your original question.
the comparing a s17 8deck game to a h17ls 4deck game and the question of number of decks stuff.
it might be cleared if you look at the house edge for:
s17das 8deck vs s17das 4deck
and then
h17dasls 8deck vs h17dasls 4deck

what would really make it clear would be to sim the various games then compare.

 

[monopoly]

it might be cleared if you look at the house edge for: s17das 8deck vs s17das 4deck and then h17dasls 8deck vs h17dasls 4deck.

Thanks for your response sagefr0g, but didn't I already do at the start of this thread?

As for simulating, i have no idea how to do that. Can anyone help me with this.

I really enjoy how helpful you are here, I can't wait to report back from this trip!

 

[iCountNTrack]

iCountNTrack, thanks so much for your encouraging response! I'd love it if you could explain why it is better, just so I have an idea.

The intrinsic decreased player's edge of having more decks (all other rules held constant)

A) Getting a BJ is more frequent the fewer decks

B) The favorability of doubling down is reduced as the number of decks increases.

But these effects are really more noticeable going from single deck game to 4D game. It almost levels off after that.

From a card counter point of view fewer decks is more favorable (again given the same rules) because of the slowness of opportunity arising with a greater number of decks. For example seeing one card from a single deck is equivalent to seeing 15 cards in a 4D game, or 33 cards in a 6D game.

 

[monopoly]

iCountNTrack, I see... also another thing i just thought about was having to cound down 8 decks of a bad shoes compared to only 4 being bad also for the card counter. So how much percent of advantage does the card counter have would you say, and is it worth the trip? I'm paying a $450 plane ticket for this.. and other living expenses while I'm there, like hotel and etc..

 

[iCountNTrack]

If i were you Monopoly, i would invest the $450 dollars in buying a BJ simulator (it will actually cost you a 1/3 of that). You MUST always calculate the expectation value and other parameters (SCORE, N0) of the game (including your playing and betting strategy), before even attempting to play it.

But to answer your question:

DAS H17 LS is about 60 75% Penetration: SCORE is about 60, your win rate is about 4 units/hour

While The SCORE of the 8D DAS S17 is about 40, win rate is 3.1 units/hours

 

[matt21]

8 decks, S17, DAS, No Surrender. (Estimated casino edge for these rules: 0.47 %)

...

4 decks, H17, DAS, Late Surrender. (Estimated casino edge for these rules: 0.52 %)

...

Can someone please shed some light on this.

hey there, hopefully you got your answers from most of those replies.

another way to look at it is that higher true counts occur a higher % of the time in 4D than in 8D games. it also means that high negative counts occur more often, but you will either wong out or bet small amounts at high -ve counts. At the high positive counts you will bet more. Thus your EV will rise as the occurrence of high counts increases. And the high TC occurrence will always increase as the number of decks decreases.

is the trip worth it?
if your 'entry costs' are $450 airfare plus other travel expenses - say a total of $700 then your EV needs to be $700 just to break-even, so that could be 35 hours @ $20 hourly EV, 70 hours @ $10 hourly EV, 14 hours @ $50 EV - so that shuold help determine whether it's worth making the trip or not.

 

[monopoly]

iCountNTrack, thanks again. What is a good BJ simulator that I can purchase. And thanks for the details.

Matt21, in my other thread (http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=13177), my current game and play, I was told to expect $80/hour after Pelerus (member here) did a sim... so I'm expecting more from the game I'm traveling to as you guys told me it's better than the game I'm currently playing... I plan to be in the city for 5 days, and hope to play a few hours a day in 5 different casino's... so the expected profits should cover it right?

 

[sagefr0g]

iCountNTrack, thanks again. What is a good BJ simulator that I can purchase. And thanks for the details.

Matt21, in my other thread (http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=13177), my current game and play, I was told to expect $80/hour after Pelerus (member here) did a sim... so I'm expecting more from the game I'm traveling to as you guys told me it's better than the game I'm currently playing... I plan to be in the city for 5 days, and hope to play a few hours a day in 5 different casino's... so the expected profits should cover it right?

monopoly, i have an uneasy feeling about this.
are you thinking your going to realize 80$/hour result-wise on this trip?
if so, just realize that may or may not happen.
quite conceivably you may lose your entire trip bankroll and not realize one thin dime.

 

[monopoly]

sagefr0g, this is very true. I am very aware of the risk of ruin... i had to learn the hard way in my other thread... that experience matured me. So I am mentally and financially prepared for this trip and I know that I could come back losing... I am just depending on the mathematical odds on my side...

 

[aslan]

sagefr0g, this is very true. I am very aware of the risk of ruin... i had to learn the hard way in my other thread... that experience matured me. So I am mentally and financially prepared for this trip and I know that I could come back losing... I am just depending on the mathematical odds on my side...

A word to the wise: they are not very dependable in the short run. But if you are financially prepared in terms of RoR, proficient at counting and BS, disciplined at wonging out at the proper times, and uncompromising at picking games with good pen, then you'll have little chance of going bust. If I was good at all these things, I think I would do this for a living. lol