# going for the brass ring

Discussion in 'Skilled Play - Card Counting, Advanced Strategies' started by sagefr0g, Oct 2, 2011.

1. ### aslanWell-Known Member

Right. Between what Sage said and what you just said, we're talking about the colorblind pickers who don't know green apples from ripe ones. All they know is that the picking is best sometime in the Fall.

2. ### sagefr0gWell-Known Member

the top image is where our hero has a 'static' 10:1 advantage against each individual competitor in the field over the various field compositions (errhh i think it is, lol) the success percentage rate is 72.55% for our hero
the middle image is where our hero has a 'static' 8.55:1 advantage against each individual competitor in the field over the various field compositions the success percentage rate is 69.62% for our hero
the bottom image is my original stipulation of an advantage mix where our hero has a 'variable' average 8.55:1 advantage against each individual competitor in the field over the various field compositions the success percentage rate is 69.03% for our hero.
confusing, i know, not even really sure if i'm describing this right, lol

3. ### sagefr0gWell-Known Member

that's just about right, except they don't even know that part about the Fall.:laugh:

4. ### aslanWell-Known Member

Yup, but the ones who don't can't exactly be called competitors except in the inadvertent sense. By your definition of competitor, some of them be picking apple blossoms. :laugh:

5. ### sagefr0gWell-Known Member

damm!!! yer right, we better start crunching some more numbers.:laugh:

6. ### NynefingersWell-Known Member

We're still talking about this?? :laugh: You're overthinking this...the expected value of the ring after the cost of all riders can be calculated. You can calculate your odds of getting the ring. Your EV in this specific case is simply the chances of winning the ring times the EV of the ring. The fact that you sometimes pay some of the cost and don't win doesn't matter because that is exactly balanced out by the fact that they pay some of the cost the times that you win. Bottom line is you maximize your value by maximizing your chances of winning. Doesn't matter how many people are there at the time or how they are playing. Just do what you can do to maximize your chances, regardless of the number of players. You know how to do that. So do it

7. ### aslanWell-Known Member

I don't think we're talking about blackjack. It has a lot to do with when to buy a ticket and jump on the merry-go-round, but sometimes people get on at the wrong time and grab the brass ring when the odds clearly do not favor them to do so. Then it's off to find another merry-go-round, if that makes any sense. If you just ride any merry-go-round you happen upon, you will quickly go broke buying tickets, unless you're fortunate enough to grab the brass ring, and the odds are usually stacked against it. Merry-go-rounds make me dizzy, anyway; I think I may take up Wheels of Fortune. :whip:

8. ### sagefr0gWell-Known Member

anal a'int it

yah, i know yer correct, especially from a practical vantage point.
just, do enough of these merry go rides, and you start wondering about stuff.
then the situation being what it is, ie. being more complex, than a merry go round, and yah really start wondering.
whatever, should it be so fortunate as to go on a long time, i could definitely imagine taking some more 'laser' tactics than the practical approach.