Good analyzer program for non-card counting

J

jbhall

Member
#1
#1
I would like to find a program that can help me analyze hand and betting strategy. I have searched but haven't even found one much less a good one.

First I would like to test each hand to help develop my own basic strategy charts. I have some questions about ones that are available, including those on this site. No offense, but I would like to prove it too myself.

Second, I would like to run a simulator using different betting strategies. There are a lot of different theories out there, and I would like to test them as well as mine to see what gives the best odds.

I would like a program that runs millions if not billions of hands. The ones I have seen are for card counting and they don't seem to be able to do what I want. I don't mind plunking down some money for one, I just want to make sure it will do what I want.

Thanks.
 
M

MGP

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
I believe the CV software can do what you want if you set it up for flat betting. Norm can help you more with the details and confirm.
 
S

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#5
#5
jbhall said:
Second, I would like to run a simulator using different betting strategies. There are a lot of different theories out there, and I would like to test them as well as mine to see what gives the best odds.
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I will save you some precious time and energy and tell you the betting strategy with the BEST odds for someone who isn't counting cards. That betting strategy is to flat-bet 0 dollars every hand! :laugh:

Go ahead and get your program and confirm it for yourself.
 
D

dacium

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
Yeah as far as 'optimum' bet size, nothing beats the kelly criterion.

This is bet size = ((bp) - q)) / b

Where b is the odds paid, p is probability of winning, q is probability of loosing. The optimum bet is therefore negetive (ie the house wins) if you aren't counting.

In terms of the basic stategy - I suggest you DO calculate it yourself for the rules of the casinos you go to. Under my rules I don't split 8's against Ten and Ace, yet many people still claim you split it under any rules. Also many people know the 'illustrious 18' but it is based on standard rules and can vary significantly when you are playing different rules.

Also remember the basic stategy is basic. For example it always says hit 16 etc. where as you can get a hand of 16 many different ways, 10 6, 9 7, 8 8, 5 5 6, 4 5 7 etc. Each one can be hit or stand.
 
C

Cass

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
dacium said:
In terms of the basic stategy - I suggest you DO calculate it yourself for the rules of the casinos you go to. Under my rules I don't split 8's against Ten and Ace, yet many people still claim you split it under any rules. Also many people know the 'illustrious 18' but it is based on standard rules and can vary significantly when you are playing different rules.

Also remember the basic stategy is basic. For example it always says hit 16 etc. where as you can get a hand of 16 many different ways, 10 6, 9 7, 8 8, 5 5 6, 4 5 7 etc. Each one can be hit or stand.
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If someone isn't counting any change in bs will only hurt your ev. Trying to improve on BS is just a waste of time. As for "composition dependent" hands the change in ev is so small its not worth the added brainpower used to remember them.
 
S

ScottH

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
dacium said:
Its a valid stategy to vary BS based on what cards are on display in the current hand.
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It's just a weak form of card counting. Like Cass said, the gain in EV is insignificant and not worth the extra effort, even if it is a small effort.
 
C

Cass

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
dacium said:
Its a valid stategy to vary BS based on what cards are on display in the current hand.
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You are playing a six deck shoe. You dont cards, but play BS religiously and composition dependent hands. You are halfway through the shoe. You are dealt 5/5/6 dealer is showing ten. Book says you should stay on this, because your hand contains two fives. BS says to hit. Now what you dont know is that no fours or fives have come out and the count is very very negative. The proper play would be to hit. The card counter knows this, the basic strategy player knows this. By standing on this hand you are actually losing more money than the BS player. Composition dependent hands are only effective off the top of a shoe and there effectiveness is marginal at best. In fact I would be willing to bet that difference over a lifetime of play would be something like .0000x% difference.

Now single deck is a different story. The CD play is going to be much more effective.
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
dacium said:
In terms of the basic stategy - I suggest you DO calculate it yourself for the rules of the casinos you go to. Under my rules I don't split 8's against Ten and Ace, yet many people still claim you split it under any rules.
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Good point. Luckily the Basic Strategy Engine at this site can give the correct strategy for many different games without having to run any simulations (and for free!:) ).

dacium said:
Also many people know the 'illustrious 18' but it is based on standard rules and can vary significantly when you are playing different rules.
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That’s true. The Fab 4 is a perfect example of that. Also, the Illustrious 18 may be different if you use a very large or very small bet spread. However, they will generally be the most important decisions for most players.

-Sonny-
 
M

MGP

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
dacium said:
In terms of the basic stategy - I suggest you DO calculate it yourself for the rules of the casinos you go to. Under my rules I don't split 8's against Ten and Ace, yet many people still claim you split it under any rules.
Click to expand...
Hi dacium, I'm curious if you're talking about BBO (Australian rules). If so then it's actually correct to split 8's vs 10...
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
Sonny said:
That’s true. The Fab 4 is a perfect example of that. Also, the Illustrious 18 may be different if you use a very large or very small bet spread. However, they will generally be the most important decisions for most players.
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hmm i use the Fab 4. wasn't aware that there was a cautionary note with regards to the rules your playing against. can you enlarge upon this, please?

best regards,
mr fr0g :D
 
Sonny

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#15
#15
sagefr0g said:
hmm i use the Fab 4. wasn't aware that there was a cautionary note with regards to the rules your playing against. can you enlarge upon this, please?
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I was just pointing out that sometimes a rule change may "re-arrange" the important indices. The Ill18 are often the most valuable decisions to know, but not always. For example, if the game allows surrender then the Fab 4 might be more valuable than most of the Ill18. If the game does not allow surrender than the Fab 4 are worthless.

I didn't mean to worry you there. As far as I know the Fab 4 are pretty set in stone. :)

-Sonny-
 
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