Hand shuffling vs. the count

[anglinw]

Has anyone else noticed, with a hand shuffled game 2D or 6D, regardless of rules, that a warm shoe is often followed by a hot shoe, which is then followed by a warm shoe, and visa versa on the down side? Or is it just my imagination? I have not paid much attention to the style of hand shuffle, but I have noticed this multi-shuffle wave frequently when I last played a few years back, at several different tables, casinos, conditions. I have not seen or felt this trend with the shuffle machines; the count always seems to stay pretty tight with the ASM's (not to be confussed with CSM's that can't be played).

Math does not lie, counting works, but can any additional information be gleened out of tracking shuffle waves as described; is it worthy enough to adjust betting levels at all, or have I just lost my mind?

Anyone have any thoughts or observations on this one?

 

[Sucker]

Think of it THIS way: When a shoe gets "hot", or "rich", this means that all the high cards are in the back of the shoe. So if the person who cut it had put the cut card in a different spot, the shoe would have come out completely differently. This alone should prove your suspicion to be rather unfounded.

There ARE advanced card counting techniques in which it's possible to identify where to cut the shoe, in order to cut OUT plugs of small cards, whereby giving the player an edge off the top of the shoe, but that usually involves dissecting the houses' shuffle, and has nothing to do with what you're asking about. Jerry Patterson wrote a very good book on this subject about 30 years ago, and btw the book is still pretty much relevant in todays' world.

 

[Renzey]

Has anyone else noticed, with a hand shuffled game 2D or 6D, regardless of rules, that a warm shoe is often followed by a hot shoe, which is then followed by a warm shoe, and visa versa on the down side?

Have you ever noticed that the dealer usually seems to have a 10 in the hole? That a bad play by 3rd base usually seems to burn the whole table? That a new player jumping in mid-shoe seems to throw the cards off? That the dealer often seems to get a blackjack on the first hand off the top of the shoe?

I'd say the answer is; it sure seems that way, but isn't. The only way you're ever going to know these things is to compile a lengthy sample size. Whenever I've done that, what seemed to be usually wasn't.

 

[Katweezel]

Think of it THIS way: When a shoe gets "hot", or "rich", this means that all the high cards are in the back of the shoe. So if the person who cut it had put the cut card in a different spot, the shoe would have come out completely differently. This alone should prove your suspicion to be rather unfounded.

There ARE advanced card counting techniques in which it's possible to identify where to cut the shoe, in order to cut OUT plugs of small cards, whereby giving the player an edge off the top of the shoe, but that usually involves dissecting the houses' shuffle, and has nothing to do with what you're asking about. Jerry Patterson wrote a very good book on this subject about 30 years ago, and btw the book is still pretty much relevant in todays' world.

Jerry Patterson has been debunked more than once here, in the archives.

 

[Katweezel]

Has anyone else noticed, with a hand shuffled game 2D or 6D, regardless of rules, that a warm shoe is often followed by a hot shoe, which is then followed by a warm shoe, and visa versa on the down side? Or is it just my imagination? I have not paid much attention to the style of hand shuffle, but I have noticed this multi-shuffle wave frequently when I last played a few years back, at several different tables, casinos, conditions. I have not seen or felt this trend with the shuffle machines; the count always seems to stay pretty tight with the ASM's (not to be confussed with CSM's that can't be played).

Math does not lie, counting works, but can any additional information be gleened out of tracking shuffle waves as described; is it worthy enough to adjust betting levels at all, or have I just lost my mind?

Anyone have any thoughts or observations on this one?

I was once playing three boxes (of the 7.) (ENHC, 6-deck, hand-shuffled, Australia.) This shoe began - and stayed - a DUMPER, for the entire shoe. ALL 5 OF US were good winners. It was $10 min, $200 max. I scooped $7000 profit offa one shoe. The dealer probably busted ten times from the 13 or so rounds. It made no difference what card she had face-up. She busted off As, 10s, whatever. In fact, she had more than her math-share of tens! Where did that come from? Unless anyone has experienced a DUMPER, you cannot begin to appreciate what it's like... this gift from the Gods of Mathematics, or the Gods of Voodoo, whatever. :grin:
More than ten years later, I still have not seen another dumper. :sad::cry::cry:

 

[Koz1984]

I was once playing three boxes (of the 7.) (ENHC, 6-deck, hand-shuffled, Australia.) This shoe began - and stayed - a DUMPER, for the entire shoe. ALL 5 OF US were good winners. It was $10 min, $200 max. I scooped $7000 profit offa one shoe. The dealer probably busted ten times from the 13 or so rounds. It made no difference what card she had face-up. She busted off As, 10s, whatever. In fact, she had more than her math-share of tens! Where did that come from? Unless anyone has experienced a DUMPER, you cannot begin to appreciate what it's like... this gift from the Gods of Mathematics, or the Gods of Voodoo, whatever. :grin:
More than ten years later, I still have not seen another dumper. :sad::cry::cry:

Where were you playing this game? Surely this was not recently?

 

[creeping panther]

Kat

I was once playing three boxes (of the 7.) (ENHC, 6-deck, hand-shuffled, Australia.) This shoe began - and stayed - a DUMPER, for the entire shoe. ALL 5 OF US were good winners. It was $10 min, $200 max. I scooped $7000 profit offa one shoe. The dealer probably busted ten times from the 13 or so rounds. It made no difference what card she had face-up. She busted off As, 10s, whatever. In fact, she had more than her math-share of tens! Where did that come from? Unless anyone has experienced a DUMPER, you cannot begin to appreciate what it's like... this gift from the Gods of Mathematics, or the Gods of Voodoo, whatever. :grin:
More than ten years later, I still have not seen another dumper. :sad::cry::cry:

How cool they are EH!!:grin::grin::laugh:

I have been lucky to be on several tables over the years like this one, a couple went on for hours.:gaga:

CP

 

[Seaclusion]

I was once playing three boxes (of the 7.) (ENHC, 6-deck, hand-shuffled, Australia.) This shoe began - and stayed - a DUMPER, for the entire shoe. ALL 5 OF US were good winners. It was $10 min, $200 max. I scooped $7000 profit offa one shoe. The dealer probably busted ten times from the 13 or so rounds. It made no difference what card she had face-up. She busted off As, 10s, whatever. In fact, she had more than her math-share of tens! Where did that come from? Unless anyone has experienced a DUMPER, you cannot begin to appreciate what it's like... this gift from the Gods of Mathematics, or the Gods of Voodoo, whatever. :grin:
More than ten years later, I still have not seen another dumper. :sad::cry::cry:

It's happened to me twice rather recently. Unfortunately, I've also had the opposite happen too where nothing turns out right. Most notably for thirteen hands in a row. Variance, sometimes love it, sometimes hate it.

 

[anglinw]

Thanks for the reality check

I appreciate the input. Hopefully next week, I'll get to re-enter the game with much better skills.

Thank you guys for your input; I needed a dose of reality. I needed to be reminded that perception, and intuition DO NOT trump math and proper playing decisions. The one consant I cannot deny is that perfect BS, proper betting levels based on the count, and play ajustments based on the count are the only things that really make Blackjack a winning game.

Have not played in several years and the input on this board have reminded me not to resume, or create new bad habits at the tables as I venture out again with a fresh bankroll and a new attitude.