have i found an online counting opportunity?

[Dipsy]

Here are the details:

At Dublinbet. com powered by vuetec software

They have this Blackjack Early Payout game.

rules:
6D
S17
DAS
split to 2 hands
BJ pays 3:2
insurance pays 2:1
dealer peeks for BJ
min -max bet = $5-200

pen. is 50% (confirmed by the software telling you the deck has been shuffled after about 28-30 rounds, i assume an avg. of a bit more than 5 cards per round)

When you play your hand, you can only stick to basic strategy. e.g. you can't split 2 10's vs 6 you can only stand. Furthermore you don't have the options to double down or split when BS doesn't want you to do so. This means some indices can't be used

you can stand a stiff hand even when BS tells you to hit.
you don't have to double or split even when the BS tells you to do so.

They also give you this early payout option. Which is like a late surrender option for every hand based on the expected value of your hand vs the dealer.
e.g if you're dealt a 16 v T you get the option to get back $2.2 on a $5 bet by giving up your hand. On a 20 v T you can get back $7.x (i don't remember the exact number for this one) but for every hand it would be the expected value plus a margin. Here's a table

http://www.dublinbet.com/game_guide/guide_popup.html?gam_id=51&set_language=EN#table1

I know the early payout option is a sucker play when not counting, because it's worse than late surrender. Would it at any point turn into a positive EV play? for example early payout 17 v T at high count...

By the way, you can get a fresh shoe when you close the game and go in again, in effect you can wong in/out at 0.

how do you think of this game?

 

[FLASH1296]

Have you … ? . . . No

 

[Sucker]

If you read the rules of the site very closely, you'll notice that it first says that the shoe is shuffled after every hand; and then in the NEXT sentence it says that it will deal 50% of the shoe before shuffling. So what is it? Obviously, if it's the former, the game can't be beaten. But if they DO deal half the shoe before shuffling, then there probably IS a certain amount of EV to be gained.

Many of the early counting systems had NO index tables for varying the play of the hand according with the count. The counter just played basic strategy and only raised his bet in accordance to the count. So I would suppose that if the game is as you've described, then it IS moderately beatable, what with 50% pen, the ability to spread from 1 to 120; and the option to leave the table when the shoe goes negative.

I'm also guessing that it won't take long at all to get barred, whether you win OR lose.

 

[moo321]

It's beatable. But not very beatable.