Yes that's true. And since I'm not in the office I can finally link to a page with the EVs.
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html
Have you ever bought a player's seat?
- Thread starter 21forme
- Start date
Maybe anyway lol - like thinking more about it I'd be up $5 for every $1 you'd be up? But I guess it's the same thing since I'm giving up possibly winning $6?
Or should I look at it like the one hand of mine that you are buying only has a $3 EV for me for the $10 bet anyway? I am making out for not playing that hand anyway? I guess I'm making more per dollar wagered now? What say you all? What would be a fair price? Can't seem to get a handle on this lol. Must be the Red Bull lol. Maybe I should just hope the next 1000 hands in a row will be an 11 vs 6 lol.
Even vs winning $6 instead of $5, rather than $3 vs $5, I sort of like the certainty of it. So maybe after all just one of those personal risk-averse decisions lol.
Anyway, I'd probably be happy to sell you that hand every time taking the $5 certainty option vs the maybe $6 option. And definitely vs the $3 option for the bet I have out lol.
Guess no point at all here lol. Except maybe I'm a coward, and probably a dumb one at that lol, and you're not lol.
Or should I look at it like the one hand of mine that you are buying only has a $3 EV for me for the $10 bet anyway? I am making out for not playing that hand anyway? I guess I'm making more per dollar wagered now? What say you all? What would be a fair price? Can't seem to get a handle on this lol. Must be the Red Bull lol. Maybe I should just hope the next 1000 hands in a row will be an 11 vs 6 lol.
Even vs winning $6 instead of $5, rather than $3 vs $5, I sort of like the certainty of it. So maybe after all just one of those personal risk-averse decisions lol.
Anyway, I'd probably be happy to sell you that hand every time taking the $5 certainty option vs the maybe $6 option. And definitely vs the $3 option for the bet I have out lol.
Guess no point at all here lol. Except maybe I'm a coward, and probably a dumb one at that lol, and you're not lol.
You lol a lot. Not sure if you're making fun of me or not, but let's put it this way:
Card counters sit down to play blackjack with the expectation of +0.02 EV and 2.5 SD/hand. By buying someone's hand, I'm playing with +0.10 EV and 1.3 SD/hand for that hand. That sounds like a pretty good deal to me.
Sure, it doesn't come up very often (I estimate 3/1000), but I'd rather play 300 hands of buying someone's hard 11 v. dealer 6 (2 SD = -15 to +75 units) than play 100,000 hands of basic strategy blackjack where I sell my hard 11 v. dealer 6 off for 0.5 units (2 SD = -2000 units to +1000 units).
So pass 'em over. :grin:
Card counters sit down to play blackjack with the expectation of +0.02 EV and 2.5 SD/hand. By buying someone's hand, I'm playing with +0.10 EV and 1.3 SD/hand for that hand. That sounds like a pretty good deal to me.
Sure, it doesn't come up very often (I estimate 3/1000), but I'd rather play 300 hands of buying someone's hard 11 v. dealer 6 (2 SD = -15 to +75 units) than play 100,000 hands of basic strategy blackjack where I sell my hard 11 v. dealer 6 off for 0.5 units (2 SD = -2000 units to +1000 units).
So pass 'em over. :grin:
Yeah, I guess it is an okay deal. $25 expended with an expected return of about $26-$27. An effective advantage of 6%-8%. Which, as you noted, a lot of counters would give their eye teeth for.
But it's not the sort of calculation I'd be able to figure out on the fly. Buying hands from players while just winging the calculations... serious chance of overpaying.
Plus, you probably could have figured out some other way to get in on the deal more cheaply. Maybe go "teamsies' with him on the double. Wager $10 of your own for an EV of over $3... that's less risk and more EV.
But it's not the sort of calculation I'd be able to figure out on the fly. Buying hands from players while just winging the calculations... serious chance of overpaying.
Plus, you probably could have figured out some other way to get in on the deal more cheaply. Maybe go "teamsies' with him on the double. Wager $10 of your own for an EV of over $3... that's less risk and more EV.
To be clear: I didn't figure out the SD on the fly either. I knew the EV for doubling hard 11 v. dealer 6 was about 0.6, that's about it.
I've tried to memorize a number of EV benchmarks for the odd scenarios that often come up, I don't think I would make a horrible decision, although I might make a wrong one.
For instance, I was once down to my last 1.5 bets, put out one, and was dealt a hard 9 vs. dealer 6. Should I double for less? (I didn't, and in retrospect it was the wrong move - doubling was +0.30 and hitting was +0.18, so doubling for less would have actually been +0.23)
Another example was when I was dealt a 5-5 vs. dealer 9. Without asking, the dealer hits me for an 8. I complain that I didn't give a hand signal (I was going to double), and the PB tells me that I can either play the 18 vs. dealer 9 undoubled, or they could muck the whole hand, but that I couldn't double having seen the card. Fortunately, I remembered that hard 18 v. dealer 9 is EV<0, so I mucked the hand.
That's actually what I tried to do at first. I told him that I'd double for him and we could split the winnings, and he declined. So I bought the hand from him, won, and the next time it came up (hard 11 vs. dealer 5) he accepted my offer to go partner with him (he was kind of miffed that I had won the first one). I think we lost. He went broke shortly after.
I've tried to memorize a number of EV benchmarks for the odd scenarios that often come up, I don't think I would make a horrible decision, although I might make a wrong one.
For instance, I was once down to my last 1.5 bets, put out one, and was dealt a hard 9 vs. dealer 6. Should I double for less? (I didn't, and in retrospect it was the wrong move - doubling was +0.30 and hitting was +0.18, so doubling for less would have actually been +0.23)
Another example was when I was dealt a 5-5 vs. dealer 9. Without asking, the dealer hits me for an 8. I complain that I didn't give a hand signal (I was going to double), and the PB tells me that I can either play the 18 vs. dealer 9 undoubled, or they could muck the whole hand, but that I couldn't double having seen the card. Fortunately, I remembered that hard 18 v. dealer 9 is EV<0, so I mucked the hand.
That's actually what I tried to do at first. I told him that I'd double for him and we could split the winnings, and he declined. So I bought the hand from him, won, and the next time it came up (hard 11 vs. dealer 5) he accepted my offer to go partner with him (he was kind of miffed that I had won the first one). I think we lost. He went broke shortly after.