Heat & Betting Ramps

[matt21]

From reading books and forums, it appears that there are professional card-counters out there, as well as professional blackjack teams. I cannot imagine that this would be worth the effort unless the players/teams are making annual profits upwards of $200k. These type of profits and required bankrolls would presumably necessitate fairly decent bet ramps. Other than using a team-approach, how do pros avoid heat?

What is high-stakes playing? When do I need to be seriously concerned about heat?
I would love to hear comments that people may have re these questions

 

[EasyRhino]

Have you been backed off anywhere yet?

No?

Keep going.

 

[matt21]

Ultimate Gambit Bet Ramp

Has anyone used (is anyone using) the Ultimate Gambit Bet parlaying bet ramp approached from Anderson's Burning the Tables in Vegas?

I have done some CVD analysis on this.

It seems that, keeping the playing strategy the same, it lowers my EV for play-all/headsup and play-all/3 players 6D games approx 15-25%, and about 15-25% for heads-up/play-all 4D games. However for play-all/3 players 4D game the forecasted decrease in EV is about 40%. 40% is a big decrease, more than i would be happy to accomodate.

Has anyone else found that the Ultimate Gambit approach varies in impact depending on the game conditions? Why would it have a much worse impact in a play-all/3 players 4D game?

Matt

 

[Pro21]

Matt,

I know very few players who still make a living solely from counting cards. The ones that do either "hit and run" meaning they play one shoe that goes positive, and then leave that casino, or they use a spotter to backcount and call them in to hot shoes.

I do not think you will have much success with the Ultimate Gambit at the bet levels you use.

The more successful players have moved beyond counting.

 

[Finn Dog]

Matt,

I know very few players who still make a living solely from counting cards. The ones that do either "hit and run" meaning they play one shoe that goes positive, and then leave that casino...

Pro21:

In your experience with those pros who hit and run, do the majority still use playing cover to get to that positive shoe (and during it)--or not?

Best regards,

FD

 

[ihate17]

No real need for cover

Pro21:

In your experience with those pros who hit and run, do the majority still use playing cover to get to that positive shoe (and during it)--or not?

Best regards,

FD

While you are waiting or when a partner has called you into a positive shoe and your plan is to run after the shoe goes neutral or ends, there is no need for cover because small bets were used earlier. If a partner calls you in, the casino does not know if your big bets are actually big or small for you. If you had been playing the shoe and waiting, betting small while waiting, you have most likely given the casino no reason to evaluate you yet. Generally, after the shoe they will begin evaluating you but you are walking out the door.

It takes more than a partial shoe, even with big bets, to evaluate a player.

That said, there are casinos that sweat sizeable money enough that winning a couple of big bets in a row, especially by a big wonger playing unrated, could result in a lightening back off.

ihate17

 

[moo321]

Has anyone used (is anyone using) the Ultimate Gambit Bet parlaying bet ramp approached from Anderson's Burning the Tables in Vegas?

I have done some CVD analysis on this.

It seems that, keeping the playing strategy the same, it lowers my EV for play-all/headsup and play-all/3 players 6D games approx 15-25%, and about 15-25% for heads-up/play-all 4D games. However for play-all/3 players 4D game the forecasted decrease in EV is about 40%. 40% is a big decrease, more than i would be happy to accomodate.

Has anyone else found that the Ultimate Gambit approach varies in impact depending on the game conditions? Why would it have a much worse impact in a play-all/3 players 4D game?

Matt

Don't use cover. That's my honest advice.

If you're a full time pro playing black chips, maybe. But maybe not, either.

 

[johndoe]

Has anyone used (is anyone using) the Ultimate Gambit Bet parlaying bet ramp approached from Anderson's Burning the Tables in Vegas?

I have done some CVD analysis on this.

It seems that, keeping the playing strategy the same, it lowers my EV for play-all/headsup and play-all/3 players 6D games approx 15-25%, and about 15-25% for heads-up/play-all 4D games. However for play-all/3 players 4D game the forecasted decrease in EV is about 40%. 40% is a big decrease, more than i would be happy to accomodate.

Has anyone else found that the Ultimate Gambit approach varies in impact depending on the game conditions? Why would it have a much worse impact in a play-all/3 players 4D game?

Matt

It's been a while since I read the book, but do these numbers match Anderson's findings?

But I do remember that he noted that this was far too expensive for a green-chip player, and even has a section on special cover for green chips.

Frankly I would play with minimal bet cover (perhaps a bit of parlaying). It's better to invest in a good act/persona IMO.

 

[moo321]

Frankly I would play with minimal bet cover (perhaps a bit of parlaying). It's better to invest in a good act/persona IMO.

Yep.

It's hard enough to win without cover.

Or, if you're playing with cover, then be ridiculous. 1-10 in single deck, 1-20 in double. Then do your parlay systems, betting cover, etc.

 

[matt21]

Yep.

It's hard enough to win without cover.

Or, if you're playing with cover, then be ridiculous. 1-10 in single deck, 1-20 in double. Then do your parlay systems, betting cover, etc.

thanks for all the replies & advice on the thread. appreciated as always!!

i have come to the conclusion that i need to chang my bet ramps. i am betting blacks and i am playing a lot of hours, and i have been winning in line with expectations (whihc i guess the casinos are not going to like for too much longer!). thus far, i have not been barred anywhere but i am just trying to increase my playing life.
anyways, i will try to work out the sims and see what results i get.

pro21, thanks for the chat we had and for providing some alternative views.

good luck out there :joker:

 

[moo321]

thanks for all the replies & advice on the thread. appreciated as always!!

i have come to the conclusion that i need to chang my bet ramps. i am betting blacks and i am playing a lot of hours, and i have been winning in line with expectations (whihc i guess the casinos are not going to like for too much longer!). thus far, i have not been barred anywhere but i am just trying to increase my playing life.
anyways, i will try to work out the sims and see what results i get.

pro21, thanks for the chat we had and for providing some alternative views.

good luck out there :joker:

Best ways to increase your playing life:

1. Smile, talk to people
2. Have a good act. Dress like you belong, have a good story
3. Hide chips
4. Run at the first sign of actual heat

 

[rukus]

Best ways to increase your playing life:

1. Smile, talk to people
2. Have a good act. Dress like you belong, have a good story
3. Hide chips
4. Run at the first sign of actual heat

simple, but effective. +1.

 

[Finn Dog]

Pro21:

In your experience with those pros who hit and run, do the majority still use playing cover to get to that positive shoe (and during it)--or not?

Best regards,

FD

While you are waiting or when a partner has called you into a positive shoe and your plan is to run after the shoe goes neutral or ends, there is no need for cover because small bets were used earlier. If a partner calls you in, the casino does not know if your big bets are actually big or small for you. If you had been playing the shoe and waiting, betting small while waiting, you have most likely given the casino no reason to evaluate you yet. Generally, after the shoe they will begin evaluating you but you are walking out the door.

It takes more than a partial shoe, even with big bets, to evaluate a player.

That said, there are casinos that sweat sizeable money enough that winning a couple of big bets in a row, especially by a big wonger playing unrated, could result in a lightening back off.

ihate17

I was talking about solo play; sorry for the confusion.

 

[blackchipjim]

solo play cover

I try to play solo when I can but that is a whole different animal than with others. I don't cover my plays or bets on a heads up game since my solo play is short lived. If I were a black chip player I would command the respect of the pit since I am a black chip player. The attitude toward black chip players is much different and they try to make you feel comfortable untill they figuire you out. I recommend no cover but act like you own the joint and they will play along for a while. blackchipjim

 

[matt21]

However for play-all/3 players 4D game the forecasted decrease in EV is about 40%. 40% is a big decrease, more than i would be happy to accomodate.

Has anyone else found that the Ultimate Gambit approach varies in impact depending on the game conditions? Why would it have a much worse impact in a play-all/3 players 4D game?

i have figured out a way to get around this problem -

Best ways to increase your playing life:

1. Smile, talk to people
2. Have a good act. Dress like you belong, have a good story
3. Hide chips
4. Run at the first sign of actual heat

thanks for these tips. very appropriate and well said!

 

[Finn Dog]

I try to play solo when I can but that is a whole different animal than with others. I don't cover my plays or bets on a heads up game since my solo play is short lived. If I were a black chip player I would command the respect of the pit since I am a black chip player. The attitude toward black chip players is much different and they try to make you feel comfortable untill they figuire you out. I recommend no cover but act like you own the joint and they will play along for a while. blackchipjim

Blackchipjim:

Under this heads-up scenario, I'd guessing you'd recommend a session length of approximately 20 minutes (to stay under the Survey Voice requirement of 60 to 70 consecutive hands--and its assumed automatic implementation at Black)?

FD