Help a new counter out?

MrClean · Sep 22, 2011

I just moved next door to a small casino (or "store" as you guys like to call them:grin

After scoping out the games there I see they have several $5-$25 min tables all with a $200 limit

The rules are 6-8 deck H17 DAS double any first two cards, split up to 4 hands, no surrender. Penetration seams to be around 5 / 6 on the 6 deck lucky lucky tables and 6.5 / 8 on the 8 deck tables. Realistic house edge is 0.57% Pit bosses seam pretty tame as well.

My bank roll is a very small ($2,000 range).

Using basic Hi Lo with ill18 what kind of betting spread would be safe for my small BR?

keeping in mind travel time and cost are of no concern. Also I plan on Wonging a lot at the start.

I would be very happy with $5-$10 an hour, hope for some good variance at the start and build my BR up from there.

I have casino verite. But if someone has CVCX I would be very grateful for a few sims
to see how much more bank roll I might need or how to hold down my ROR.

The main thing I am looking for is a good betting spread for my situation.

And any pointers you veterans have to offer:grin:
Thanks,
Mr, Clean

kewljason · Sep 22, 2011

Welcome MrClean and hello again to everyone else.

With the scenario you mentioned, you will need to play the $5 tables. What spread you decide on will be determined by what your tolerance of risk is.

But one very important factor is that you must not play at least some of the negative counts. The best approach would be to wong out aggressively during negative counts, but being a small casino (store) that you will be frequenting often, you probably won't be able to do that, or at least not for long. But you must to find away to escape at least some of those negative counts by bathroom breaks, phone calls, smoke breaks, and your regular departure point.

Your best case scenario would be to hit a positive swing early. I hope it works out for you.

Alvaro · Sep 22, 2011

kewljason said:

Welcome McClean and hello again to everyone else.

With the scenario you mentioned, you will need to play the $5 tables. What spread you decide on will be determined by what your tolerance of risk is.

But one very important factor is that you must not play at least some of the negative counts. The best approach would be to wong out aggressively during negative counts, but being a small casino (store) that you will be frequenting often, you probably won't be able to do that, or at least not for long. But you must to find away to escape at least some of those negative counts by bathroom breaks, phone calls, smoke breaks, and your regular departure point.

Your best case scenario would be to hit a positive swing early. I hope it works out for you.

kewljason ?

stopgambling · Sep 22, 2011

Rise from the dead!!!!! nice to hear from you even if i dont know u .!!!hope ,some of your problems will go away !!!

AussiePlayer · Sep 22, 2011

kewljason said:

Good to have you back! :grin:

Jack_Black · Sep 22, 2011

What the hell is this??!!??

Mods, what is going on here? I for one am not happy to see KJ back, as I was one of the few who were duped into giving a sincere farewell to KJ. And I figured a permanent ban would do you good since you obviously have no self control when it comes to anonymity, which caused you drama. but then again, it seems you have no self control for drama either now, does it?

Gamblor · Sep 22, 2011

stopgambling said:

Is the internet haunted? :yikes:

:laugh:

psyduck · Sep 22, 2011

Jack_Black said:

Hey dude, I felt very sad too. But I learned my lesson and I hope you do too. This is the internet and anything is possible. Don't take anything seriously unless you know the poster in person. Save your emotions for people you actually know.

Jack_Black · Sep 22, 2011

psyduck said:

it's not like I'm angry and betrayed. (although I was) My main thoughts for posting that was for the confusion of his ban state. Mods permanently banned him for the good of the board and for KJ himself, but now he has been unbanned?

FLASH1296 · Sep 22, 2011

Back to the Original Poster's Question:

Bet $5 to $60 on the 6 deckers and you may reach your goal of hourly winnings.

Be sure that you know the correct Basic Strategy and (at minimum)
"Illustrated 18" Indices (for departure from Basic Strategy)

If your bankroll is $2,000 you have about 1/3 (or less) of what
you really need to keep your Risk of Ruin truly low.

Plow your winning back into your bankroll so that you can progressively reduce your risk.

RISK is subjective. We each have different levels of risk that we find acceptable.

Shoofly · Sep 23, 2011

FLASH1296 said:

That is very good advice from Flash. I am a little surprised. I expected him to advise you to either wait until you had more BR or learn a Level 2 count.

As someone who was in the same position some time ago, I can tell you that this is exactly what I would have advised. The higher RoR is offset by the fact that you are not risking a fortune here.

You mentioned Wonging. Not always possible, but I would do it whenever I could.

kewljason · Sep 23, 2011

Shoofly said:

Not exactly. Flash gave a reasonable game plan assuming the OP has a high tolerance of risk and is willing to lose his small BR, but he overlooked a key word, which to me, indicated the opposite. SAFE The Op said "what kind of betting spread would be safe for my small bankroll?"

Shoofly · Sep 23, 2011

kewljason said:

You are right. I missed that little word. Under the circumstances I would say the RoR is reasonable, but certainly not safe.

bigplayer · Sep 23, 2011

MrClean said:

Do you still have a job...then your bankroll is not irreplacable. If you do not have a job then 2K really isn't enough bankroll to grind up into something playing blackjack.

If you have a job...then you should find a game with a big edge...deeply dealt double deck or single deck and bet full kelly with no cover in all anonymous play. Burn down the games and try for a big positive flux to get your bankroll built up to a useable amount. If you bust out save up another bankroll and try again in a few months.

If you don't have a job expenses will probably bust you out before you can build your bankroll so it's even more imperative that you get your bankroll built up as fast as possible You need to play RATED (preferably under an alias) in a town like Vegas and use the comp system to pay your living expenses (coupons,etc) put all extra money and winnings back into your bankroll. Live in your car and comped hotel rooms and drive to Reno and Wendover and play single deck. Learn to play Hold-Em, look for big edges on premium games and burn them down. When your bankroll gets up to $50,000 or so you can begin the transition to shoes...When your bankroll is $100K you have enough to begin to generate income and maybe get a cheap place to call home.

MrClean · Sep 23, 2011

Shoofly said:

Could someone with first hand experience tell me how much better a level 2 count is?

Breaking it down into the simplest terms...
Two twin brothers are playing shoe games with the same rules (as per my first post) they both have the same Luck...
Bro #1 is using plain ol Hi-Lo ....
Bro #2 is using ...say.. Mentor

How much more money is Bro #2 making?

kewljason · Sep 23, 2011

MrClean said:

Wow! Second post and you nailed perhaps the biggest debated question on this site, McClean.

I have come to the conclusion there is no correct cut and dry answer.

I think we all agree that simulations will show an increase of anywhere from 5-10%, maybe as much as 12 depending on the exact conditions and rules of the game. Where we disagree is just how much, if any of that advantage translates into the real world accounting for more errors and less accurate counting ect. I believe it is not much and not worth the effort for most players. Others swear by the difference.

I will share my experience. I started with hi-lo, switched to a level 2 count, RPC after 3 years for a period of about 18 months, and then switched back to hi-lo deciding it just wasn't worth it for me.

Obviously as I said others feel completely different and part of the equation lies with each individuals abilities.

I strongly advise new players to just stick with a level one count for a while. You can switch up later if when you know a little more if you decide it is for you, but in the early going accurate counting and a decent bet spread are more important than what count you actually use.

bigplayer · Sep 23, 2011

MrClean said:

Count system is really not a priority compared to finding games you can get into the long run before expenses (living and travel) crush your bankroll. If you already know High-Low well, learn more indexes. If you want more power without having to side-count Aces I recommend Complete Zen Count (count per deck version). You will win about 15% faster for the good pitch games.. Multi-level counts don't reduce your variance but they do increase your EV so that your overall SCORE and DI is higher and your N0 (long run index) is lower. Once you get to high stakes it's all about betting, finding places that take action, and finding good penetration which is why High-low is the count of choice for the big teams.

FLASH1296 · Sep 23, 2011

What is crucial for MrClean to know is that the "risk" situation will improve if he can "grow his bankroll".

BUT in the event that he is unlucky and his bankroll shrinks appreciably then his probability of losing the remainder will be absurdly high.

I would suggest setting a minimum of $1,000 as a bankroll, and quitting at that point if need be.

Help a new counter out?

MrClean

New Member

kewljason

Well-Known Member

Alvaro

Member

stopgambling

Well-Known Member

AussiePlayer

Well-Known Member

Jack_Black

Well-Known Member

Gamblor

Well-Known Member

psyduck

Well-Known Member

Jack_Black

Well-Known Member

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member

Shoofly

Well-Known Member

kewljason

Well-Known Member

Shoofly

Well-Known Member

bigplayer

Well-Known Member

MrClean

New Member

kewljason

Well-Known Member

bigplayer

Well-Known Member

FLASH1296

Well-Known Member