Help me calculate my win expectation please!

T

Toxic

Well-Known Member
#1
#1
I have a good game that I really like to play, but with expenses for gas and other things, I'm trying to decide if it's worth it.

I can play a single deck game with 70% pen 3/2 bj, H17, DOA and afford a max bet of 200.

I have options between $5, $10, and $25 table min.

I use KO with I18, I can seemly get away with spreading 5 to 200 without much heat. I am also curious how much edge I lose if I play $25 min still spreading to a max of 200 at TC4 or greater.
 
LV Bear

LV Bear

Administrator
#2
#2
Toxic said:
... I can play a single deck game with 70% pen 3/2 bj, H17, DOA and afford a max bet of 200. ...
Click to expand...
"70% pen?" That's not the way single-deck pen is normally expressed. Have you played single deck before? It is a very different animal than even double-deck games. Before getting into your issue, the link below may be helpful.

Single Deck Game Selection

Other or several issues you didn't mention include the level of crowding at the three minimums and the amount of travel. Most low-stakes players cannot afford to travel, as the time and expenses reduce the EV too much to be worth it.
 
T

Toxic

Well-Known Member
#4
#4
Also I'm curious how much of an increase switching from KO to Zen count will have on my overall experience. I've got KO down and am very comfortable with it and just I18 indices. Would putting in the time to switch to the Zen Count have a drastic increase on expected earnings? Right now I have access to good single and double deck games. In the future, It will probably be 4 and 6 deck games. KO is very easy to change rules and number of decks. I am assuming Zen might not be? Perhaps just use Zen for the SD game and KO for everything else?
 
X

xengrifter

Banned
#6
#6
Toxic said:
Also I'm curious how much of an increase switching from KO to Zen count will have on my overall experience. I've got KO down and am very comfortable with it and just I18 indices. Would putting in the time to switch to the Zen Count have a drastic increase on expected earnings?
Click to expand...
NO. Stay with KO...
...at some point you could choose to upgrade to TKO: true-counted KO using modified HILO indices.
 
T

Toxic

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
That's what I figured. Now can someone tell me how different my EV is if I spread 25 to 200 vs spreading 10 to 200?

Also, is there a formula where I can take house edge, bet spread, and system to calculate my exact $/hr expectation?
 
sagefr0g

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
Toxic said:
That's what I figured. Now can someone tell me how different my EV is if I spread 25 to 200 vs spreading 10 to 200?

Also, is there a formula where I can take house edge, bet spread, and system to calculate my exact $/hr expectation?
Click to expand...
there are such formulas, however, you need wl%, standard deviation & frequency of a given count for a system for a given game (rule set, # decks, pen). unless you know of existent tables providing wl%, sd,& frequency of the count for the game in question and the count being used those formulas wont help. how does one get those values? you need a simulation.
edit: failed to mention adv. units or $ frequency and units bet frequency to produce avg bet and wl% end edit
 
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T

Toxic

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
At the moment I don't have access to simulation software. One last question. If my spread in KO is $25 <=1, 75=2, 150=3 200 >=4 (just using raw KO running counting starting at IRC 0, not converting with TKO) Since it is -EV playing bets at <1, how much of an impact will dropping my minimum bet have? Currently I'm spreading 1-8, if I drop the unit size to 10, I'm spreading 1 to 20 and putting less money on the table in -EV situations.

I think I can do this almost half the time without drawing heat. I know that the bigger the bet spread the better for the counter. Lastly, additional info if It matters, the br is 20k and we are talking SINGLE deck!
 
S

Splittingten's

Banned
#10
#10
Give us the full set of rules so we can help you anticipate your E.V. Can you only double on ten and 11, can you surrender? Give us ALL the rules and the house edge so we can provide you with accurate informarion.
 
T

Toxic

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
SD DOA RSA NoDAS H17 No surrender

For pen: I can get ro6 always, and ro7 about 40% of the time.

House edge 0.17 with BS
 
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#13
#13
$87.49 / hr

w/ max bet of $180, 4.6% ror

that is for minimum $20



for minimum $5 you have same hourly @ $85.56

but ROR of only 1.5%

and you should be raising your bet at TC +1 because you have .64% advantage here



also these RORs are for 10k bank so if you have 20k bank your ROR should be much lower, or you can ramp more aggressively than my sims and play with much higher hourly
 
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S

Splittingten's

Banned
#14
#14
Did you get those numbers through CVCX? If so then what was the penetration of the game , how many decks and did you use the I18 or the full set of indexes? 0.64% is a huge advantage for a TC of +1. I would like to know how you got that number because I have always been under the impression that if the house has a 0.50% advantage then the player will be break even at a TC of +1.
 
T

Toxic

Well-Known Member
#15
#15
Thanks Meistro. 20k br. Sounds like I can considerably reduce ROR without sacrificing much hourly by lowering to half a unit. I thought that if I'm playing a -0.17% game off the top, that a TC of +1 = 0.33% player advantage.
 
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