High Tie side bet

[moo321]

Wizard of odds describes it here:

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix8.html#hightie

Any idea if this shifts to +EV at higher counts?

 

[callipygian]

Wizard of odds describes it here:

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix8.html#hightie

Any idea if this shifts to +EV at higher counts?

I get a different EV than the Wizard. I'm inclined to believe I made a mistake somewhere rather than him, but overall it does seem to be very vulnerable to card counting because of the high dependence on 10's. As a matter of fact, it looks spectacular.

HiLoTC	EV	Variance
-5	-0.162	8.4
-4	-0.138	9.0
-3	-0.113	9.6
-2	-0.085	10.2
-1	-0.057	10.8
0	-0.026	11.5
+1	+0.006	12.3
+2	+0.040	13.1
+3	+0.075	13.9
+4	+0.113	14.8
+5	+0.152	15.7

 

[moo321]

Interesting... any ideas for the other paytable?

 

[callipygian]

Interesting... any ideas for the other paytable?

It's going to be worse than the one posted. Hi-Lo doesn't track suits, so you're making less off the blackjacks and more off of the untrackable "any suited".

 

[moo321]

This would be great cover for a back-counter, too.

 

[callipygian]

This would be great cover for a back-counter, too.

I don't think table play is going to cover for backcounting. While I have no hard evidence to support this, I have a hard time believing surveillance/security is going to watch someone backcount for 15 minutes, jump in, and then think, "Oh, he put money on the side bet, he must not be a counter."

I think the most damning part of backcounting is when you're standing there staring at the table and everyone's wondering whether you're going to try to grab some chips and run for the door.

The people who watch backcounters are different from the people who watch play-all card counters.

 

[Sonny]

Attached is a spreadsheet that will calculate the house edge for any deck subset. Just enter the quantity of each card in the upper-left blue squares (one cell for each rank/suit combination). It will show you what the new player edge is and what the HiLo count is. You can also change the payouts in the yellow section for different versions of the bet. I made a sheet for both version from the Wizard’s website so that should cover most of the bases.

I agree that this is a great side bet with payout version 1. It gets positive very often but the variance is pretty high. Depending on your bankroll and the betting limits you might end up making this bet around 20-30% of the time with an hourly EV of close to 1 unit.

-Sonny-

 

[moo321]

attached is a spreadsheet that will calculate the house edge for any deck subset. Just enter the quantity of each card in the upper-left blue squares (one cell for each rank/suit combination). It will show you what the new player edge is and what the hilo count is. You can also change the payouts in the yellow section for different versions of the bet. I made a sheet for both version from the wizard’s website so that should cover most of the bases.

I agree that this is a great side bet with payout version 1. It gets positive very often but the variance is pretty high. Depending on your bankroll and the betting limits you might end up making this bet around 20-30% of the time with an hourly ev of close to 1 unit.

-sonny-

awesome!

 

[PrinceDragon]

High Tie

I ran a sim for this bet(Version 1),and the EV came out totally different.
Anyone know what did i do wrong here?
But if i bet according to this sim,1 unit @Hilo TC+5 or higher,the WR is close to 1U/Hr also...

Also for Sonny:what does the lower blue square do in your spread sheet?
T.I.A.

P.D.