Hole Card Sim

[SilentBob420BMFJ]

Any more news on this? A trend Im starting to notice hole carding Spanish 21 is that doubling A2 vs dealer 12 may be a bad play. Since you can double on any number of cards (ie you put a 5 on your A2 and double on the soft 18) and also a dealer 12 is quite strong in Spanish21. Anyone have any thoughts on this? I think the better play may be to hit this particular hand. Also curious about thoughts on when to surrender to a 19.
BW

could somebody explain to me (in private if your paranoid), how hole carding changes from game to game? i dont see how hole carding 3 card poker and caribbean stud is supposedly easy, while blackjack is hard.. whats the difference? i keep forgetting to watch how they deal 3 card poker when i go to the casino, but i dont recall seeing anything huge, such as a shoe on a pole where they pull the card from above lol

 

[KenSmith]

The main difference is that 3-card and CS games are usually dealt from a shuffle machine, and the motion that the dealer makes to retrieve the cards is susceptible to weakness. By way of contrast, much blackjack is dealt from a shoe. It is very rare to have a dealer exposing their down card in a shoe game. In hand-held blackjack, the motion is both less susceptible to trouble and more heavily trained in dealer school.

 

[RJT]

Sorry Brock, i tried for a couple of weeks after we last spoke to get something out of this, but never got anything that made any more sence than what we've already spoke about.

RJT.

 

[Brock Windsor]

Sorry Brock, i tried for a couple of weeks after we last spoke to get something out of this, but never got anything that made any more sence than what we've already spoke about.
RJT.

Still even without the sims for proof I'd like to hear a few qualified opinions from some of the forums more knowledgeable members (RJT, Sonny, etc.) even if we can't get a sim I think a few people here will have some valuable instincts that will be close. Lets brainstorm how folks would play the following hands in a Spanish 21 game. S17, 8deck, usual rules (double on any number of cards, no redoubling)
A2 vs 12 (Hit or Double?)
8 vs 12 (Hit or Double?)
12 vs 19 (Hit or surrender?)
20 vs 14 (Stand or Split?)

Right now when I play the above hands I: Double, Double, Hit, and Stand. The removal of 10's and double on any number of cards really changes the hole card strategy on this game I think. Sometimes I even hit 12vs12 as I think it is a close play. Lets post some thoughts!
BW

 

[k_c]

10-10 v 14, 12 v 10-9

Still even without the sims for proof I'd like to hear a few qualified opinions from some of the forums more knowledgeable members (RJT, Sonny, etc.) even if we can't get a sim I think a few people here will have some valuable instincts that will be close. Lets brainstorm how folks would play the following hands in a Spanish 21 game. S17, 8deck, usual rules (double on any number of cards, no redoubling)
A2 vs 12 (Hit or Double?)
8 vs 12 (Hit or Double?)
12 vs 19 (Hit or surrender?)
20 vs 14 (Stand or Split?)

Right now when I play the above hands I: Double, Double, Hit, and Stand. The removal of 10's and double on any number of cards really changes the hole card strategy on this game I think. Sometimes I even hit 12vs12 as I think it is a close play. Lets post some thoughts!
BW

I think I can help you out with 10-10 v hard 14 and hard 12 v hard 19
6 decks, pre deal deck comp (2 through ace) 24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,72,24

10-10 v 10-4 split: 66.43%, stand:70.20%
10-10 v 9-5 split: 66.73%, stand:70.27%
10-10 v 8-6 split: 67.00%, stand:70.58%
10-10 v 7-7 split: 68.54%, stand:71.58%

10-2 v 10-9 hit: -32.41%, surrender: -50%
9-3 v 10-9 hit: -33.16%, surrender: -50%
8-4 v 10-9 hit: -33.16%, surrender: -50%
7-5 v 10-9 hit: -32.84%, surrender: -50%
6-6 v 10-9 hit: -32.64%, surrender -50%

It is correct to double A-2 v hard 12 when doubling is allowed on 2 cards. I'm not sure when doubling is allowed on any number of cards.

It is not correct to double a 2 card hard 8 v hard 12.

My comp dependent program can compute doubling on any number of cards but it can only deal with dealer up cards. My new program can compute dealer hands whether hard, soft, or up card but it cannot compute doubling on any number of cards at this time.

k_c

 

[Brock Windsor]

I think I can help you out with 10-10 v hard 14 and hard 12 v hard 19
6 decks, pre deal deck comp (2 through ace) 24,24,24,24,24,24,24,24,72,24

10-10 v 10-4 split: 66.43%, stand:70.20%
10-10 v 9-5 split: 66.73%, stand:70.27%
10-10 v 8-6 split: 67.00%, stand:70.58%
10-10 v 7-7 split: 68.54%, stand:71.58%

10-2 v 10-9 hit: -32.41%, surrender: -50%
9-3 v 10-9 hit: -33.16%, surrender: -50%
8-4 v 10-9 hit: -33.16%, surrender: -50%
7-5 v 10-9 hit: -32.84%, surrender: -50%
6-6 v 10-9 hit: -32.64%, surrender -50%

It is correct to double A-2 v hard 12 when doubling is allowed on 2 cards. I'm not sure when doubling is allowed on any number of cards.

It is not correct to double a 2 card hard 8 v hard 12.

My comp dependent program can compute doubling on any number of cards but it can only deal with dealer up cards. My new program can compute dealer hands whether hard, soft, or up card but it cannot compute doubling on any number of cards at this time.

k_c

Thanks KC. Really shows a 12 to be a strong hand in Spanish. From your info I would still split 10's vs 15, probably hit anything 14 or less against a 19 I thought 8's would double vs 12, maybe only double 8's v 13? Are you able to sim 12vs12? Curious to see how close it is to a hit.
BW

 

[k_c]

12 v 12

Thanks KC. Really shows a 12 to be a strong hand in Spanish. From your info I would still split 10's vs 15, probably hit anything 14 or less against a 19 I thought 8's would double vs 12, maybe only double 8's v 13? Are you able to sim 12vs12? Curious to see how close it is to a hit.
BW

First of all, my program is not a sim but an exact calculation.
Some values for 6 decks, Spanish 21 comp -
Player 10-2 v dealer 10-2; Hit: -12.04%, Stand: -14.67%
Player 6-6 v dealer 10-2; Hit: -11.98%, Stand: -13.43%, SPL1 (NDAS): -1.07%, SPL3(NDAS): +0.96%, SPL1(DAS) +10.10%, SPL3(DAS) +14.13%

Player would always hit his non-pair 2 card 12 v dealer's 2 card 12. My program only computes DAS for 2 card doubling after splitting and not being allowed to double on any number of cards after splitting, which may or may not make a difference in the split EVs.

k_c

 

[JNote]

Can you calculate?

Player 13 v dlr 12 and player 12 v dlr 13?

Thank you.

First of all, my program is not a sim but an exact calculation.
Some values for 6 decks, Spanish 21 comp -
Player 10-2 v dealer 10-2; Hit: -12.04%, Stand: -14.67%
Player 6-6 v dealer 10-2; Hit: -11.98%, Stand: -13.43%, SPL1 (NDAS): -1.07%, SPL3(NDAS): +0.96%, SPL1(DAS) +10.10%, SPL3(DAS) +14.13%

Player would always hit his non-pair 2 card 12 v dealer's 2 card 12. My program only computes DAS for 2 card doubling after splitting and not being allowed to double on any number of cards after splitting, which may or may not make a difference in the split EVs.

k_c

 

[k_c]

S

Player 13 v dlr 12 and player 12 v dlr 13?

Thank you.

Player should stand on both.

k_c