Hole card strategy - surrender

[johndoe]

I was looking at the hole card chart on wizardofodds, and was surprised that there were no surrender plays. Is there a chart somewhere that includes these?

(Or maybe someone can summarize? I'm most interested in hands against dealer 12-20 and what this knowledge is worth for betting purposes.)

 

[iCountNTrack]

Well the reasons for the scarcity of hole-carding strategy tables are:

A) Generally speaking games where hole-carding opportunities arise do not offer surrender

B) It would look very suspicious if you surrender hands such as 17, 18, 19 against a dealer's higher total.

 

[johndoe]

Of course, but surrendering a 12 isn't so bad. And I can act!

 

[ExhibitCAA]

pp. 286-300.

 

[suicyco maniac]

pp. 286-300.

You're starting to sound like Don S., answering questions with page numbers

:joker:

 

[johndoe]

Ok, I figured it was in the book but wasn't sure I should outlay the $250 just for this - mostly because I'm not sure that the ev boost in my hypothetical situation, and availability of the opportunity, is big enough to justify the expense.

Though I am pertty tempted. How much are those plays worth?

 

[zengrifter]

Ok, I figured it was in the book but wasn't sure I should outlay the $250 just for this - mostly because I'm not sure that the ev boost in my hypothetical situation, and availability of the opportunity, is big enough to justify the expense.

Though I am pertty tempted. How much are those plays worth?

Not much considering the huge gain already. zg(someone correct me?)

 

[Pro21]

Ok, I figured it was in the book but wasn't sure I should outlay the $250 just for this - mostly because I'm not sure that the ev boost in my hypothetical situation, and availability of the opportunity, is big enough to justify the expense.

Though I am pertty tempted. How much are those plays worth?

If you were buying the book only for that one chart not worth it. But then what happens when you say, Gee, now I have a game where I can only tell 10 or non-10. I need that chart. Then you find a carnival game that you think you might be able to beat. etc. etc. etc.

 

[johndoe]

If you were buying the book only for that one chart not worth it. But then what happens when you say, Gee, now I have a game where I can only tell 10 or non-10. I need that chart. Then you find a carnival game that you think you might be able to beat. etc. etc. etc.

Right, for a serious-but-casual weekend warrior like me, I don't know if I'll want to put in the energy for these more advanced plays - I mostly asked this question because of a specific opportunity.

Though I'm still tempted, partially because I'm curious, it's not THAT much $$, and also I wouldn't mind kicking something to ExhibitCAA, due to his incredibly helpful presence here and on chats. If it was $99 I wouldn't hesitate.

 

[Martin Gayle]

Buy the book. If you are really hole carding it will pay for itself several times over.

Rule of Thumb - surrender whenever the EV is less than 50% return. The charts for EV are available online and in books you can find used on amazon.com for a few bucks.

 

[moo321]

Ok, I figured it was in the book but wasn't sure I should outlay the $250 just for this - mostly because I'm not sure that the ev boost in my hypothetical situation, and availability of the opportunity, is big enough to justify the expense.

Though I am pertty tempted. How much are those plays worth?

Buy it.

 

[ExhibitCAA]

johndoe: "If it was $99 I wouldn't hesitate."

Exactly. That's why we made it $250.

 

[iuliana.donica.ct]

I bought it!
It's really an "eye opener". And the really nice thing about it is that if you buy it you really buy the standard!
I am glad that my first book about Advantage Play is B.C.
And the secquel: Exhibit CAA!
ID.c

 

[daddybo]

I bought it!
It's really an "eye opener". And the really nice thing about it is that if you buy it you really buy the standard!
I am glad that my first book about Advantage Play is B.C.
And the secquel: Exhibit CAA!
ID.c

ooops... hit a 17 against a 10. Got a 4. WOW! that was lucky since the dealer had another 10 in the Hole! :laugh:

 

[Frankie]

I mean... how difficult is this really? If you are worried about cover (and you should be), the following makes sense -- top of my head:

vs 18 (10 up)
14-17 at most; just 15-17 with 8 or 9 up

vs 19 (10 up)
14-18; just 15-17 with 9 up

vs 20
12-18

Now that's very aggressive and I wouldn't recommend all of that. I think surrendering 12 or 13 is always going to be fishy so I wouldn't do it except versus 20. Also better not surrender 19. And I would never surrender vs. a total 10 or 11, of course, unless there was an 8 up.

 

[johndoe]

Yes, the reasonable plays are fairly easy to figure out, but it's good to be sure of what is optimal, and reduce from there per cover.

The more important question is: how much more should I be betting, given this information?

 

[ExhibitCAA]

Frankie: "I mean... how difficult is this really? If you are worried about cover (and you should be), the following makes sense -- top of my head:"

Apparently, pretty difficult. Your top-of-the-head (or seat-of-the-pants) strategy guess is pretty far off the mark.

 

[moo321]

Hitting hard 17 is very aggressive. Much more aggressive than surrendering a thirteen v. 10, I think.

 

[Brock Windsor]

I mean... how difficult is this really? If you are worried about cover (and you should be), the following makes sense -- top of my head:

vs 18 (10 up)
14-17 at most; just 15-17 with 8 or 9 up

vs 19 (10 up)
14-18; just 15-17 with 9 up

vs 20
12-18

Now that's very aggressive and I wouldn't recommend all of that. I think surrendering 12 or 13 is always going to be fishy so I wouldn't do it except versus 20. Also better not surrender 19. And I would never surrender vs. a total 10 or 11, of course, unless there was an 8 up.

Don't surrender to a dealer 18... unless you KNOW the next card will bust your hand.
BW

 

[Martin Gayle]

I mean... how difficult is this really? If you are worried about cover (and you should be), the following makes sense -- top of my head:

vs 18 (10 up)
14-17 at most; just 15-17 with 8 or 9 up

vs 19 (10 up)
14-18; just 15-17 with 9 up

vs 20
12-18

Now that's very aggressive and I wouldn't recommend all of that. I think surrendering 12 or 13 is always going to be fishy so I wouldn't do it except versus 20. Also better not surrender 19. And I would never surrender vs. a total 10 or 11, of course, unless there was an 8 up.

Well what would you recommend?

If you know what the dealer is holding you still surrender if you have less than 50% expected return.

For cover sake, never surrender your pat hand. Never surrender unless the dealer has a X up. Surrendering 17v8(up) would set off red flags. Surrendering any 17 is typically shocking, perhaps more shocking than hitting it!