Horrific 9 months at the tables

Discussion in 'Skilled Play - Card Counting, Advanced Strategies' started by Mimosine, Jan 11, 2010.

  1. Mimosine

    Mimosine Well-Known Member

    It's been a long time since I've posted anything of substance.

    I've been playing in the shadows, not really reporting here. Read Exhibit CAA, playing all over US.

    A little background. I started playing in 2007 with a measly bankroll of $700. Over the course of a year I had invested $2500 of my own money and built that bankroll up to $4800 using KO. This happened with a lot of luck and weaker than necessary bet spreads. The whole time playing the best games I could find. over the course of the year i had 18 winning sessions and 6 losing sessions.

    2008-2009 was a year of stellar growth. Bankroll grew from 4800 to 7700 in 27 sessions.

    Sometime in 2008 I helped develop Open Source UBZII and switched over to it without issue.

    2009 First 13 sessions brought bankroll to $11,400. Next 24 sessions saw huge roller coaster all the way down to $8400 and back up to $11,023.50

    The remaining 25 sessions of 2009 saw the bankroll deteriorate down to $4000. it was an unbelievably difficult past 9 months. During the downward spiral I did decrease max bets (usually around 1.2% of BR), and avoided steaming. I played my best game and quit only when tired or when tapped out. SEVERAL of the session losses I've seen, even 3 hour losses have been massive.

    I've stopped to double check my game at many intervals, it always checked out. For UBZII I ran the sims and double checked results with co-conspirator and cross referenced George C's book, Renzey's book, BJA, etc.

    I can safely say, save for a few 'old timers' here. I've seen more dealer 20s this year, when I was staring at my 19 than I care to recall or than any of you did.

    If I believed in luck, i would say it has been a bad luck year. instead I say that the cards just didn't fall the way I hoped... and I'm sitting on the -2 SD line.

    I've been thinking what should my game plan be for this year. I have plenty of cash to invest. i could revert to KO, though don't see this as the problem. I could play off the remaining 4000 as if it were 10k, knowing I can reinvest at will. I could play the 4000 at Kelley and build back up. I'm thinking of playing as if I have a 10k bankroll. $40 max bets aren't really worth my time. It would be better to lose it all and not play again than to make like $6/hr.

    if there is anything i'm missing here, let me know. I'm not afraid of the game, and am prepared to lose it all or win it all back. I have the time, energy and wherewithal to make it happen. I can do it with a clear head. I have 4 days in a town with 20 casinos coming up in a month and am starting to hone my game now for 2010.

    Thanks for the read, and hopefully there is something of use to new people on this forum with dreams of endless, exponential growth. This reality check was bound to happen, but the speed and steepness of the check was unexpected.
  2. kewljason

    kewljason Well-Known Member

    First off, my condolences on a horrid 2009, and better wishes for 2010. Since you didn't go into specifics about your game, bet spreads, RoR ect, I don't think anyone can offer more than very general observations, and here's mine: 37 sessions at what 2 hours per equals 74 hours? I am guessing here. Maybe 100 hours total if your sessions are closer to 3 hours. Still a very small sampling and very much in the short run. I know down 2 SD's is horrendous to you, but certainly not implausible. If you are playing a winning game as you believe and can afford to lose the addition $4 grand as you state you can, I say keep playing. See what happens.

    One additional thought. If you look at your 3 year total rather than 2009, it sounds like you started with $3200 ($700 initial + $2500 additinal investment) so ur 3 year total is +$800 (is that correct). Certainly still below expectation, but probably far less than 1 SD.
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2010
  3. Mimo,

    From reading your post I am impressed as you seem to have done all well.

    However, this does point out the danger of using counting alone and playing along with the CW of how to attack the game. AS you notice CAA went against CW in his approach to some games and indeed snears at straight counting alone. As far as I am concerned you are living proff as to what can and often does occur to many players.

    My advice to you, rethink your approach,,,and play only fine games.

  4. Mimosine

    Mimosine Well-Known Member

    total investment is 2500, current BR is 4000. three years of part time play = $1500 up. sorry for the ambiguity.

    and thanks for the thoughts.
  5. daddybo

    daddybo Well-Known Member

    ahh, my alkaloid friend... minor setback... Take that 4K and go for it.
  6. zengrifter

    zengrifter Banned

    Calculate for me what the time and StDv was for the last 25 sessions was, and
    a candid account of how poor your games and how adequate your spread was. zg
  7. Krak3d

    Krak3d Well-Known Member

    Eventually you'll go back to winning, since you're a pro player. Just like you said, the cards didn't fall you're way, and since you have lots of money to invest, go for it with the 4K and see what happens.
  8. Pelerus

    Pelerus Well-Known Member

    I feel for you Mims. -190 units and half a year's win gone in one trip is where I am at right now, so I am right there with you.
  9. Pel

    I applaud your honesty, this is how we learn...it opens doors.

  10. Mimosine

    Mimosine Well-Known Member

    i kinda felt a little strange about putting the report in $s, but units really don't make much sense to me anymore since I play 6d, DD, SD. At each game the unit might be different to achieve the same Max Bet. I reported this in $s for illustrative purposes.

    e.g. for DD a $25 unit bet was standard, for SD, closer to $30, for 6D $5 or $10 depending.

    And thanks for the advice and kind words.

    I'll try and crunch some numbers soon, that is one thing I haven't done religiously - using CVCX.

    I've kept good logs though of all sessions. But perhaps stitching together CVCX sims and logs and tabulating session results VS. EV might be something I should do this year... Thoughts? Pretty easy to do with Excel and CVCX after a session (punch in hours, pen, spread - get EV).... does anyone else do this on a session by session basis??? it wouldn't be too much work, since most of my sessions (~5/day) come out of 2-3 day blitzkriegs.
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2010
  11. daniel27

    daniel27 Well-Known Member

    i kept a log in excel, and after a big win or loss re-check my spread using cvcx with the new BR , for me is easy because i only play shoes, now 2704 units up ( unit= 10 dollars )
    After a great month last year i was 3000 units up and then loss after loss i reach the 1500 units up, ( half my BR) using the original spread the loss had been complete 0 BR but thanks to cvcx and the advice in this forum now i´m only 300 units down
  12. matt21

    matt21 Well-Known Member

    Yes I always did on a session by session basis. For each session I calculated my EV based on the variables you mentioned - and also the standard deviation. After a few sessions I would then keep a cumulative figure for both EV and std dev (and for each month, and year to date etc). I initially used cvcx and cvd to calculate my EV and SD in each ase. I found the record keeping quite insightful.
    Good luck to you :)
  13. zengrifter

    zengrifter Banned

    Mimo, we are looking into your personal StDv. Can you calc this? zg
  14. Mimosine

    Mimosine Well-Known Member

    ZG: i'll look into crunching these numbers soon. I'll try to find time tonight and i will report back. I play mostly DD so I might just do an aggregate calculations based on the average game I played, number of hours, and spread.
  15. blackjack avenger

    blackjack avenger Well-Known Member

    A Little Consistency Can Go a Long Way

    Have you used the same betting ramp?

    I believe you can add to the bank?

    If both of the above are true then as long as you have enough to complete a trip then perhaps play on at same stakes.:joker::whip:
  16. Sonny

    Sonny Well-Known Member

    Hey Mimosine! It's great to have you back again. I was worried that you disappeared with EZRhino.

    You have plenty of cash and you read ECAA. You should know the answer to that question already. ;)

  17. Mimosine

    Mimosine Well-Known Member

    Here are the numbers:

    While playing 6D, Stdev from CVCX is $370/hr
    Played about 16 hours

    CVCX says 16 hours:
    1SD is -1217 to +1675
    2SD is -2228 to +2686

    While playing DD, Stdev from CVCX is $500/hr
    Played about 60 hours

    CVCX says 60 hours:
    1SD is -3000 to +4700
    2SD is -5,590 to +7374

    Spreadsheet shows a loss of $7000.
  18. nightspirit

    nightspirit Well-Known Member

    Good to see you back Mimo! Good luck to you and never give up!

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