Hourly Rate

Preston

Well-Known Member
I just went on an unbelievable 4 month streak where I only had two losing sessions. They were big ones though so I crunched the numbers tonight.

I'm betting red -- $10 unit.

My hourly rate after all hours played is $27/hr. Is that decent?

It was near $40/hr but my last two sessions were big hits on my BR.

I am using a 1-10 spread ($10-$100) in a 6 deck game. Playing off the top but wonging out around -2 or -3.
 

Paradox

Well-Known Member
What are the other rules?

And what is the pen? i.e. S17DASLS RSA with 1.25 decks cut off. Also, exactly how many hours did you play. I'll run a sim and tell you exactly how you did.

BTW, Sweet, I love long winning streaks. My best was just before my worst loosing streak.

Paradox
 

Preston

Well-Known Member
80% penetration

DAS, DOA No Surrender no RSA
$10 table minimum - used as unit bet

Mentor Count.

120 hours played. Profit $ 3237.50
 

Paradox

Well-Known Member
Preston said:
80% penetration

DAS, DOA No Surrender no RSA
$10 table minimum - used as unit bet

Mentor Count.

120 hours played. Profit $ 3237.50
A few more questions:

S17 or H17?

Do you use all indexes or I-18 or SW16 or ????

I'm not familiar with mentor. It is included in my simulator, so I don't need to know much about it. If mentor has a true count conversion, do you estimate the decks remaining to 1/2 deck resolution or full-deck resolution?

Cheers,
Paradox
 

EasyRhino

Well-Known Member
It's really good. If it's after leakage like tipping or drinks or non-BJ gambling, then it's ridiculously great.
 

Preston

Well-Known Member
moo321 said:
1-10 spread is usually pretty weak for 6 deck. Are you playing all?
Max bet = $100 according to my bankroll. It's what I'm comfortable getting away with. I play off the top and wong out when it looks like crap. Not exactly a play all scenario.

The amount is pure profit. It is after tips, drinks, travel expenses, slot play and craps play.

Overall I'm pretty satisfied with my results... just wish I quit a little sooner.
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
Wonging out helps some. But I'd be careful playing 6 decks with such a small spread. Smaller spreads sometimes look like they're safer for a bankroll because they smooth out session fluctuations, but the smaller the spread, the less the advantage, and that means you have an inherently higher risk of ruin. I would recommend more like a 1-20 spread for someone with a small bankroll.
 

Cardcounter

Well-Known Member
Your results are great!

If you are an AP you probably have an expected value of $4 an hour if you are making close to $27 after tipping and drinks that is great result as opposed to a good one. I think your spread of 1-10 is fine even for the six deck shoe. A 20-1 spread just generates to much heat if your playing decesions are half way decent. I would be on the lookout for a major losing session to come up soon. If this happens point it out to the pit boss before leaving. So they can maximaze your comps for the session and hopefully mark you down as a loser. The key to winning at blackjack is to make the pit think you are loser while walking away a winner! I hope that you have ratholed some chips and not cashed them all out at the same casino so the casino thinks you have won less than you really have.
 

moo321

Well-Known Member
I have to take issue with you saying that a 1-10 spread is fine for a mediocre 6 deck game. Your total edge is probably around .5%, and no one should be playing with that small of an edge just to get cover, and I don't think anyone should make cover plays of any kind at the red chip level.
 
moo321 said:
Wonging out helps some. But I'd be careful playing 6 decks with such a small spread. Smaller spreads sometimes look like they're safer for a bankroll because they smooth out session fluctuations, but the smaller the spread, the less the advantage, and that means you have an inherently higher risk of ruin. I would recommend more like a 1-20 spread for someone with a small bankroll.
actually wonging can be more powerful than spreading, altho it kind of is apples and oranges, and hard to compare, but i have a ~.3% advantage WITHOUT SPREADING, just by playing only plus run counts, and i have HEARD that a 1-4 spread with play all in a 6 deck game wont even get you to break even, so think about that.. another way to put it, is you dont have to wait around for plus counts to come to get back the money you lost from when you were in the negative, you simply dont play the negative, thus you should do much better, but of course heat and boringness get in the way of wonging, but not for me..

bottom line, i highly suggest no matter what you are doing, that you wong out at some point, perhaps around -2 TC, but dont leave the table, just wait til it goes above that, and hop in/out.. i cant imagine backcounting tons of tables and hopping all over the damn place because what about your players card? you will have to do that everytime.. on a random note, if anybody has any information on switching spots at the same table (going from 2nd to 7th) as it applies to being rated, id like to know, because the pit boss said "sure, why not" when i asked him, as if he wasnt even paying attention, but i think they have your name seated at a certain seat, so if they look up and that seat is empty, they may clear you out, so i dunno..
 
Last edited:

Dog Hand

Well-Known Member
CVCX Sim Results

Preston said:
80% penetration

DAS, DOA No Surrender no RSA
$10 table minimum - used as unit bet

Mentor Count.

120 hours played. Profit $ 3237.50
Preston,

I ran a CVCX sim for a 6D, DAS game with 80% pen for both H17 and S17 (you didn't say which) for a CC using the Mentor count and playing with 3 other players. The CC wongs out if the count drops below -3 (so he plays 80% of the rounds), and uses a $10-$100 spread with optimal betting.

For H17, I get a win rate of $16.82/hr, a Std. Dev. of $351.39/hr, and a Risk of Ruin (for a $10K BR) of 6.5%. For 120 hours of play, the one-std-dev range is -$1709 to +$5745. Chances of winning $3237.50 or better are 37.57%.

For S17, I get a win rate of $19.58/hr, a Std. Dev. of $344.59/hr, and a Risk of Ruin (for a $10K BR) of 3.7%. For 120 hours of play, the one-std-dev range is -$1305 to +$6005. Chances of winning $3237.50 or better are 40.70%.

Thus, your results are well within the 1-sigma range, and fortunately for you, they're on the "+" side!

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand
 
Top