How bad can bad luck get?

[Automatic Monkey]

How about a max bet count, for four hands in a row?

And I caught all 20's including doubles and splits, for four hands in a row.

And the dealer caught 21's, for four hands in a row.

So I'm sitting there with the crumbs of my playing stake, the count is still +EV so I'm still in the game, splitting my bet up to prolong my suffering like a pathetic, sick gambler would, won a few small bets, then on the last two hands of the shoe, the 21 vs. 20 game is repeated, and I leave the casino, literally, without a dollar in my pocket, ploppies howling at me like I had just dropped napalm on their village.

I'll tell you, if somehow I were to have foreknowledge that I would ever have a year like this again, I would never play again. The only good thing is I would have to live to be 300 to be statistically likely to see it again.

 

[NightStalker]

It does get brutal..

How about a max bet count, for four hands in a row?

And I caught all 20's including doubles and splits, for four hands in a row.

And the dealer caught 21's, for four hands in a row.

So I'm sitting there with the crumbs of my playing stake, the count is still +EV so I'm still in the game, splitting my bet up to prolong my suffering like a pathetic, sick gambler would, won a few small bets, then on the last two hands of the shoe, the 21 vs. 20 game is repeated, and I leave the casino, literally, without a dollar in my pocket, ploppies howling at me like I had just dropped napalm on their village.

I'll tell you, if somehow I were to have foreknowledge that I would ever have a year like this again, I would never play again. The only good thing is I would have to live to be 300 to be statistically likely to see it again.

That's a part of the game..

 

[Blue Efficacy]

There have been 3 occasions in my low stakes career where I have seen fit to bet $100 and got double down hands.

All 3 times, I got 20.

And all 3 times, I lost.

 

[zengrifter]

How about a max bet count, for four hands in a row?

And I caught all 20's including doubles and splits, for four hands in a row.

And the dealer caught 21's, for four hands in a row.

So I'm sitting there with the crumbs of my playing stake, the count is still +EV so I'm still in the game, splitting my bet up to prolong my suffering like a pathetic, sick gambler would, won a few small bets, then on the last two hands of the shoe, the 21 vs. 20 game is repeated, and I leave the casino, literally, without a dollar in my pocket, ploppies howling at me like I had just dropped napalm on their village.

I'll tell you, if somehow I were to have foreknowledge that I would ever have a year like this again, I would never play again. The only good thing is I would have to live to be 300 to be statistically likely to see it again.

Fortunately that pendulum swings both ways hard. zg

"Ahh, the swings!" - Ken Uston​

 

[Billy C1]

Fortunately that pendulum swings both ways hard. zg

"Ahh, the swings!" - Ken Uston​

It does BUT we need to be there to see it happen. Can I take my good swing first?

BillyC1

 

[NightStalker]

Heat/CTR are major worries with swings..

Fortunately that pendulum swings both ways hard. zg

"Ahh, the swings!" - Ken Uston​

Easy to lose max bets, hard to win without sweat..

 

[Ferretnparrot]

Not to rub it in your face, but last month I got blackjack 4 hands in a row while playing only one spot at a monster count.

Then there was the time burned into my memories.....monster count monster bets im dealt 16v10 so I stand, the dealer flips a 6 and theres a glimmor of hope, then pulls the 5 that I didnt take because apparently im pro and I stand on that hand.

It wouldnt be so memorable if I wasnt dealt it again the next hand, 16v10 and the same things happened...

Then a third time...I stand...dealer turns 6 and its happened a third time likely the only 3 remainng 5s in the game.

As a net, IM still winning, im sure you are too so no worries :eyepatch:

 

[psyduck]

The sickest times usually come during extremely high counts. Sometimes I want to Wong out when TC is very high (know as Roching out?)

 

[21forme]

AM, it must be the blue moon. I had a terrible day today, as well, losing just about every big bet.

One shoe I played was very deeply cut and TC was +14 with under a deck left. I was playing 2 hands and 2 other players at the table. All of us had 20s and the dealer had ar BJ. Ugh!

Another shoe, I doubled my 7,4 v 2 and got an A and lost. Guy next to me split his Ts against the dealer 2 and won both!

 

[mathman]

The moon, the stars...wtf

It makes you wonder sometimes. My Thursday and Friday (into Sat. morning) rank at the top or very near the top of the list for my worst "luck" possible. So many dealer 21's, so many one better hands and NO successful options whatsoever.:flame: Every time I had 11 I received a crap card however every time the dealer had 11, bam! there's the ten. You sit there and think you must be imagining it but it happens over and over. Really makes you think. My good news was my Sunday was exactly the opposite. I had two shoes of dream cards and won everything back plus a little and had another good night last night. This game is really something sometimes...JtMM

 

[blackchipjim]

It can get really bad!

It always amazes me when things get bad and your variance swings negative. In my thread "the longest mile" it wasn't fast but it is prolonged. It does make you feel like going ZG's route and having a holy person take the hex off you. Being beat with a baseball bat seems less painfull then getting hit hard and walking away defeated from this game. If I ever find the cure or the sign that tells you it's about to happen to an ap I would be rich. I just hate losing in general.

 

[aslan]

Fortunately that pendulum swings both ways hard. zg

<b>

"Ahh, the swings!" - Ken Uston​

</b>

But unfortunately, the cards have no memory from session to session, so they don't know that it's time for them to come down the other way. IN FACT, Automatic Monkey has just as much chance (actually more) to experience the very same shoe from hell as he does for a pendulum swing in the other direction. Now how glum is that prospect!? My condolences, Automatic Monkey. Better luck next time.

 

[aslan]

It always amazes me when things get bad and your variance swings negative. In my thread "the longest mile" it wasn't fast but it is prolonged. It does make you feel like going ZG's route and having a holy person take the hex off you. Being beat with a baseball bat seems less painfull then getting hit hard and walking away defeated from this game. If I ever find the cure or the sign that tells you it's about to happen to an ap I would be rich. I just hate losing in general.

Well, to rehash an old theme, the odds are still against us winning the majority of hands even in a plus count, the difference being that we are favored in terms of splits, doubles and naturals. Every time I win a close one, I think how easily it could have gone the other way. Every time I have my back against the wall and I hit a couple of big ones to bail my a$$ out of a whole lot of trouble, I think of how easily it could have gone the other way. Occasionally it will go the other way, as per AM, and I brace for it each and every time. When it does come, and it will for the majority if not all of us, it is still devastating, even knowing all along that it will likely come sooner or later. Maybe it won't be like Monkey's, 20's versus 21's, but is it any less devastating (except in shock value) if all your ten splits and double downs draw a deuce? Losing sucks. And losing one's entire session bankroll sucks big time.

 

[sagefr0g]

what's really weird is in the midst of all the bad luck, and how crummy we feel about it, is how it doesn't seem to take anywhere near as much good luck and one begins feeling all bright and chipper again.

 

[Machinist]

what's really weird is in the midst of all the bad luck, and how crummy we feel about it, is how it doesn't seem to take anywhere near as much good luck and one begins feeling all bright and chipper again.

Boy aint that the truth froggo............One spin and your on top of the world again...or one royal flush times 2???? LOL

Machinist

 

[sagefr0g]

too slow

Boy aint that the truth froggo............One spin and your on top of the world again...or one royal flush times 2???? LOL

Machinist

uh huh, but the weirdness continues, cause that becomes sort of anticlimactic, especially when in such a circumstance you got to sit waiting for what seems like for ever for attendants and supervisors, (them holding out their sweaty hands palm up) so they can ceremoniously pay you off while at the same time extracting the states 'dues' and filing paperwork for uncle sam.
most of this stuff, imho, it's a matter of time and how friggin slow the process tends to be.
like our buddy automonk, had to leave the joint, pockets empty after a horrific session, so that's gonna take time ( that long, long drive) and before that it was probably a long slow grind for him for most of his play. then when it comes around to winning back his trip roll and even more, that'll likely be a long slow grind.
sometimes, doubtless we all wish we could just rewind and fast forward, so as we could get the heck on with it. good, bad or indifferent, doesn't really seem to matter, just get on with it!

 

[Machinist]

uh huh, but the weirdness continues, cause that becomes sort of anticlimactic, especially when in such a circumstance you got to sit waiting for what seems like for ever for attendants and supervisors, (them holding out their sweaty hands palm up) so they can ceremoniously pay you off while at the same time extracting the states 'dues' and filing paperwork for uncle sam.
most of this stuff, imho, it's a matter of time and how friggin slow the process tends to be.
like our buddy automonk, had to leave the joint, pockets empty after a horrific session, so that's gonna take time ( that long, long drive) and before that it was probably a long slow grind for him for most of his play. then when it comes around to winning back his trip roll and even more, that'll likely be a long slow grind.
sometimes, doubtless we all wish we could just rewind and fast forward, so as we could get the heck on with it. good, bad or indifferent, doesn't really seem to matter, just get on with it!

Wow!!!! Nice sagefrog..............."Just get on with it"......You have come a loooooong way ..........

Machinist

 

[tensplitter]

TC is high, $125 bet on one hand, I get a 11 vs dealer 10. I double down and guess which card comes out...an ACE!!! I lose the hand. The very next hand, count is still high, I have 11 again and the dealer's showing 8. I double down and get yet another ace. Lose that hand too. Just like that, I lost $500 in 2 minutes. All because of getting an ace after doubling 11.

 

[aslan]

TC is high, $125 bet on one hand, I get a 11 vs dealer 10. I double down and guess which card comes out...an ACE!!! I lose the hand. The very next hand, count is still high, I have 11 again and the dealer's showing 8. I double down and get yet another ace. Lose that hand too. Just like that, I lost $500 in 2 minutes. All because of getting an ace after doubling 11.

Which is not uncommon, but depressing nevertheless. The same factor that makes it such a good time to raise your bet accounts for the ill-timed arrival of the dreaded ace on an eleven-double-down. I wonder if anyone has done a sim to determine whether it's better EV to double down on eleven or ten in a TC = +>4 situation? My guess it's best on eleven, but not by very much.