How do you deal with variance?

[aslan]

On this note, I would generally recommend most straight counters abandon their balanced counts and turn to Red 7 or KO. Arnold once wrote that only about one in a hundred counters actually make money. I have met very few recreational players that did not steam after losses, over bet their roll, and fudge the true counts in their favor ... whether consciously or not. Let alone make accurate true count conversions in the first place.

Pop quiz:

How many decks are in the tray?

Regardless, it adds one more step to the dance for those already tripping up.

Best,
Syph

Depends on how many decks this discard rack can hold.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Balanced to Unbalanced

hi lo and a 6 deck game.
Whenever the count is 6 or over you have an advantage and can bet per RC. It would be weaker then balanced hi lo.

:joker::whip:
good cards

 

[blackjack avenger]

Concrete Answers

Help with variance:

RA indicies
avoid negative hands
game selection
larger bet spread for lower long term variance
2 hands for lowering long term variance, raises variance for first approx. 50 hrs.
:joker::whip:

 

[aslan]

Dealing with variance

First of all I would like to say I'm new to these boards and I do know the basics of counting.

I can keep a high-lo count no problem through 6 decks and true count.

But it seems everytime I go into the casino and want to challenge myself mentally and try to give myself a edge. I get my butt kicked on the bigger bets where we are suppose to have a edge.

Granted I don't play with a lot of money and my min-max is only 5-25 when I'm counting.

But I've never had any success when my big bet is out there and its in favor of the player.

Now variance has a big part of this and I know im not suppose to be "invincible"when I know how to count but it hurts when you know you have a edge for that section of the shoe and you get eaten alive.

So my question is how do you deal with the variance and have any of you ever started counting and ran into a wall like I have and you would rather just play basic strategy cause its so mentally straining counting cards?

Another thing that comes to mind in dealing with variance--

Sometimes you will lose all or most of the first several bets in a positive count. The reason may be twofold: (1) the count may still be rising, which means that bad (small) cards are still being dealt more than good (aces and tens) cards; (2) you are just unlucky, for example, when everyone around you is getting good cards, but you keep getting stiffs. What I have discovered by hanging in there is that more often than not, you will hit a couple of good hands at max bet that will bail you out of trouble, maybe even put you in the winner bracket.

Now, for the bad news. Sometimes it will not turn around when you hang in there. This is where you get hit with those stupendous losses in good counts. Although you will win more money than not in positive counts, because of these occasional counts from hell, you MUST have sufficient bankroll to support your level of play. For a simple $10 minimum game, that means an almost stunning $10,000 bankroll (not trip or session bankroll, but total bankroll). I was stunned when they told me to have that much bankroll; maybe you're not. But I now know from experience that it is absolutely necessary for those normal but severe bouts with variance.

Good variance.

 

[Syph]

I was somewhat surprised that no one made mention of a few realities in KJ's rebound post. His actual expectation was probably in the area of about $300, and for that he had to subject himself to an approximate $10,000 swing.

458 units in 12 minutes.

And I'm sure he is fully aware he was but a hair's breath away from it swinging the other direction. I also recall he mentioned that he has gone through periods of up to eight months with no bankroll growth. His candor in this matter is refreshing, and illustrated all to well why few who play for a living, particularly solo players, hamstring themselves with counting.

Best,
Syph

 

[aslan]

I was somewhat surprised that no one made mention of a few realities in KJ's rebound post. His actual expectation was probably in the area of about $300, and for that he had to subject himself to an approximate $10,000 swing.

458 units in 12 minutes.

And I'm sure he is fully aware he was but a hair's breath away from it swinging the other direction. I also recall he mentioned that he has gone through periods of up to eight months with no bankroll growth. His candor in this matter is refreshing, and illustrated all to well why few who play for a living, particularly solo players, hamstring themselves with counting.

Best,
Syph

Good observation, and totally agreed with, but what does it take to break out of this servitude to the count. Does it take personal contact and tutelage from those in the know? Can it be learned on one's own? Or can it be learned out of a book? Is it that I spend too much time at the tables and not enough time scouring the casinos in search of that golden goose that will occupy my next year's entire attention? What does it take to make it sink in that that one hole card opportunity might make up for years of suffering at the whim of the variance gods? I think I am getting there as I write. I am tired of building up my bankroll and then seeing a good portion of it sacrificed on the altar of bad variance. What I want is less variance and more substance to my advantage play. That's what I hear you saying. But I still feel adrift at sea on a dreary night.

I feel like the routine of counting has become an enemy when it should only be a stepping stone. I resolve on my next trip to spend more than 50% of my time looking for other opportunities.

 

[Syph]

Good observation, and totally agreed with, but what does it take to break out of this servitude to the count. Does it take personal contact and tutelage from those in the know? Can it be learned on one's own? Or can it be learned out of a book? Is it that I spend too much time at the tables and not enough time scouring the casinos in search of that golden goose that will occupy my next year's entire attention? What does it take to make it sink in that that one hole card opportunity might make up for years of suffering at the whim of the variance gods? I think I am getting there as I write. I am tired of building up my bankroll and then seeing a good portion of it sacrificed on the altar of bad variance. What I want is less variance and more substance to my advantage play. That's what I hear you saying. But I still feel adrift at sea on a dreary night.

I feel like the routine of counting has become an enemy when it should only be a stepping stone. I resolve on my next trip to spend more than 50% of my time looking for other opportunities.

Hi Aslan,

Your dedication is commendable, and I wish I could offer advice for your situation, unfortunately this is a field where opportunities are unique to each environment. For instance, I talked about a little system I used for 1-2 poker. However, it wasn't really the system per se, but rather the conditions that summer. The economy was strong, and I picked the battlefield. Now, anyone in my same situation could have done the same. It wasn't a matter of having specialized knowledge, but rather positioning yourself at the right time and place.

For instance, I'll still play 1-2 ... when Wilbert is there. That's his game. He'll drop upwards of $10K a night. When I can routinely get him drawing dead, my only concern is getting enough money on the table (buy-ins are capped at $500). Now, last night was fortunate, the table stakes changed to 2-5, then 5-10.

Were an advantage player to step into a casino on a Friday night and walk past the poker room where Wilbert is raising and playing every hand to the river and then proceed to play at a crowded BJ game strikes me as borderline lunacy. In the same way, I observe the poker regs grinding away mid-week, during the day, swapping blinds with each other. Asinine. Go play that heat-free, single pass, heads-up for 200+ hands per hour.

It's not so much about slotting advantage play into one skill set. But rather having the flexibility to see the conditions as they are, and allowing them to decide for you the best opportunity. I remember there was a debate about the Cookbook approach to tracking vs the NRS method. Both are excellent at the right time and place. The shuffle, the composition of the slugs, and your ability will often determine what approach you use. And this may change from shoe to shoe. But if the poker game is good, I have no use for even a 10% edge at BJ.

In poker, that's generally referred to as a race.

One of the most valuable lessons I learned from James was nearly a decade ago. He told me his goal was to be able to beat every game in the house. When you can do that, you don't have to pick the game ... it picks you.

Of course, your question is how one gets there, and I can't really answer that. I can tell you that I aligned myself with real players, and sought out their advice. Arnold Snyder, Radar O'Reilly, James Grosjean, Stalker, and 98% were my influences. The internet is littered with keyboard jockeys. And they are not all ill-intentioned; many times they do mean well, its simply they have no experience to draw on. And without that, it's like trying to learn to swim from someone who is afraid of the water.

So as default advice, I would encourage everyone to seek out those who actually play for a living. Begin there. For instance, James Grosjean is often in the chat rooms. Talk with him, ask him a few questions. Don't be shy. He's remarkably accessible. You can trust his information, it is not the product of fantasy. It is born and written of blood, as the Hagakure would say.

So go to the source. Go straight to the flame.

And see what lights up.

All the best,
Syph

 

[aslan]

Hi Aslan,

Your dedication is commendable, and I wish I could offer advice for your situation, unfortunately this is a field where opportunities are unique to each environment. For instance, I talked about a little system I used for 1-2 poker. However, it wasn't really the system per se, but rather the conditions that summer. The economy was strong, and I picked the battlefield. Now, anyone in my same situation could have done the same. It wasn't a matter of having specialized knowledge, but rather positioning yourself at the right time and place.

For instance, I'll still play 1-2 ... when Wilbert is there. That's his game. He'll drop upwards of $10K a night. When I can routinely get him drawing dead, my only concern is getting enough money on the table (buy-ins are capped at $500). Now, last night was fortunate, the table stakes changed to 2-5, then 5-10.

Were an advantage player to step into a casino on a Friday night and walk past the poker room where Wilbert is raising and playing every hand to the river and then proceed to play at a crowded BJ game strikes me as borderline lunacy. In the same way, I observe the poker regs grinding away mid-week, during the day, swapping blinds with each other. Asinine. Go play that heat-free, single pass, heads-up for 200+ hands per hour.

It's not so much about slotting advantage play into one skill set. But rather having the flexibility to see the conditions as they are, and allowing them to decide for you the best opportunity. I remember there was a debate about the Cookbook approach to tracking vs the NRS method. Both are excellent at the right time and place. The shuffle, the composition of the slugs, and your ability will often determine what approach you use. And this may change from shoe to shoe. But if the poker game is good, I have no use for even a 10% edge at BJ.

In poker, that's generally referred to as a race.

One of the most valuable lessons I learned from James was nearly a decade ago. He told me his goal was to be able to beat every game in the house. When you can do that, you don't have to pick the game ... it picks you.

Of course, your question is how one gets there, and I can't really answer that. I can tell you that I aligned myself with real players, and sought out their advice. Arnold Snyder, Radar O'Reilly, James Grosjean, Stalker, and 98% were my influences. The internet is littered with keyboard jockeys. And they are not all ill-intentioned; many times they do mean well, its simply they have no experience to draw on. And without that, it's like trying to learn to swim from someone who is afraid of the water.

So as default advice, I would encourage everyone to seek out those who actually play for a living. Begin there. For instance, James Grosjean is often in the chat rooms. Talk with him, ask him a few questions. Don't be shy. He's remarkably accessible. You can trust his information, it is not the product of fantasy. It is born and written of blood, as the Hagakure would say.

So go to the source. Go straight to the flame.

And see what lights up.

All the best,
Syph

Eloquently stated. Thanks for the wisdom born of experience.

What I hear you saying is that it's a mindset. Learn from the experiences of those who know. Study to become versatile. Allow each situation to suggest it's own best course of action.

I don't think I have the youthful zeal to attempt to learn how to beat every game in the casino, but I am setting "several" as my goal. Already yesterday I had a glimpse into the benefits of versatility. I spent the entire day riding the variance roller coaster up and down in a $25 S17 6-deck game with pen set at 75% and sometimes slightly better. After struggling all day long, I got back close to even and quit.

As I was leaving, I checked a slot machine I know how to beat from a forum buddy and found it waiting to "go off," so in ten minutes I had a $1,000+ payout. It's not always how much work you put into it, but what you know. And having two plays in the same casino saved my trip from being a total waste.

Poker is the game I have been studying lately. I was a stud and draw player way back when, but now I am trying to learn this hold'em in which everyone with a few hours experience believes themselves to be WSOP material. I see them blowing their total bankrolls frequently in their arrogant stupidity, so I think it's an area where I can profit. I don't think I can be a champion at any form of poker (I tried for many years in my youth), but I don't think it takes that much to beat a large number of those out there now-- just a solid game and some native smarts. My style never won big scores anyway-- just modest wins and even more modest losses, and many more wins than losses.

What stopped me from playing in my youth was no nearby casinos, and every home game for $5 or more had at least one mechanic or card sharp to contend with. In those days, it was not worth the hassle, unless you wanted to fight fire with fire (hustle the hustlers), but I didn't want the sum total of my life to be the ability to deal whisper-free bottoms. Instead, I chose the +EV of a college education, which I have never regretted. Some of my gambling buddies and acquaintances did go on to be successful-- kudos to them-- some not-- but everyone has to choose from whatever +EV opportunities life has to offer them in their particular circumstances.

 

[Tarzan]

No. of decks

It looks like 3.5-3.6 decks in the tray to me.

 

[Automatic Monkey]

Eloquently stated. Thanks for the wisdom born of experience.

What I hear you saying is that it's a mindset. Learn from the experiences of those who know. Study to become versatile. Allow each situation to suggest it's own best course of action.

I don't think I have the youthful zeal to attempt to learn how to beat every game in the casino, but I am setting "several" as my goal. Already yesterday I had a glimpse into the benefits of versatility. I spent the entire day riding the variance roller coaster up and down in a $25 S17 6-deck game with pen set at 75% and sometimes slightly better. After struggling all day long, I got back close to even and quit.

As I was leaving, I checked a slot machine I know how to beat from a forum buddy and found it waiting to "go off," so in ten minutes I had a $1,000+ payout. It's not always how much work you put into it, but what you know. And having two plays in the same casino saved my trip from being a total waste.

Poker is the game I have been studying lately. I was a stud and draw player way back when, but now I am trying to learn this hold'em in which everyone with a few hours experience believes themselves to be WSOP material. I see them blowing their total bankrolls frequently in their arrogant stupidity, so I think it's an area where I can profit. I don't think I can be a champion at any form of poker (I tried for many years in my youth), but I don't think it takes that much to beat a large number of those out there now-- just a solid game and some native smarts. My style never won big scores anyway-- just modest wins and even more modest losses, and many more wins than losses.

What stopped me from playing in my youth was no nearby casinos, and every home game for $5 or more had at least one mechanic or card sharp to contend with. In those days, it was not worth the hassle, unless you wanted to fight fire with fire (hustle the hustlers), but I didn't want the sum total of my life to be the ability to deal whisper-free bottoms. Instead, I chose the +EV of a college education, which I have never regretted. Some of my gambling buddies and acquaintances did go on to be successful-- kudos to them-- some not-- but everyone has to choose from whatever +EV opportunities life has to offer them in their particular circumstances.

You'll find far more and better opportunities among the slot banks than you will in a live poker room. It takes patience and study, and you have to avoid the temptation of gambling. I think maybe twice in the past five years I went into a poker room because there was nothing better to play.

Great thought though, to be able to make money at as many different games as you can. As gaming expands it seems promotions are getting a little better, and there is solid EV to be found in them.

 

[Freightman]

If you are who I thinkk you are

Now variance has a big part of this and I know im not suppose to be "invincible"when I know how to count but it hurts when you know you have a edge for that section of the shoe and you get eaten alive.

So my question is how do you deal with the variance and have any of you ever started counting and ran into a wall like I have and you would rather just play basic strategy cause its so mentally straining counting cards?[/QUOTE]

You are not yet capable of beating the house. You need far more discipline and less talk at the table.

 

[gamblingghost]

It looks like 3.5-3.6 decks in the tray to me.

Maybe more, how many deck tray is this? We would know this before sittin down.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Victory over Variance

To deal with variance, all of these are good:
RA indicies
Play better games
Optimal Spread
Avoid negative Hands
Higher level count
More indicies
2 hands
Tough Mind Set

However,
All of the above added up won't equal this one thing:
Bet conservatively!
Betting kelly resizing you have a 50% chance of losing half your bank.
Betting .5 kelly resizing you have a 12.5% chance of losing half your bank.
Betting .25 kelly resizing you have a .008% chance of losing half your bank.
If variance is truly bothering you, this is the only way to have victory over variance.

If underfunded and you can't bet much you will be a victim of variance until your bank grows.

good cards
:joker::whip:

 

[Automatic Monkey]

To deal with variance, all of these are good:
RA indicies
Play better games
Optimal Spread
Avoid negative Hands
Higher level count
More indicies
2 hands
Tough Mind Set

However,
All of the above added up won't equal this one thing:
Bet conservatively!
Betting kelly resizing you have a 50% chance of losing half your bank.
Betting .5 kelly resizing you have a 12.5% chance of losing half your bank.
Betting .25 kelly resizing you have a .008% chance of losing half your bank.
If variance is truly bothering you, this is the only way to have victory over variance.

If underfunded and you can't bet much you will be a victim of variance until your bank grows.

good cards
:joker::whip:

Bravo! :1st:

Variance problem? Bet less. Bankrolling should take the same approach as a retiree who is planning to live solely on investments. Every year is not going to be a good year for his investments, and the bank is going to need to be drawn down on top of the investment losses. Conservative, is damned right!

An AP (full-time, specifically) has a choice between dropping his bet (and thus his win rate) or that dreaded J-O-B for the same risk of overall ruin. But because job income is not as subject to variance, what he earns there is multiplied because it allows him to bet more. Thus an AP who drives, serves, or mops on the weekends might look like he's only earning $15 per hour but in reality it is much more.

 

[aslan]

Bravo! :1st:

Variance problem? Bet less. Bankrolling should take the same approach as a retiree who is planning to live solely on investments. Every year is not going to be a good year for his investments, and the bank is going to need to be drawn down on top of the investment losses. Conservative, is damned right!

An AP (full-time, specifically) has a choice between dropping his bet (and thus his win rate) or that dreaded J-O-B for the same risk of overall ruin. But because job income is not as subject to variance, what he earns there is multiplied because it allows him to bet more. Thus an AP who drives, serves, or mops on the weekends might look like he's only earning $15 per hour but in reality it is much more.

Good point.

 

[aslan]

To deal with variance, all of these are good:
RA indicies
Play better games
Optimal Spread
Avoid negative Hands
Higher level count
More indicies
2 hands
Tough Mind Set

However,
All of the above added up won't equal this one thing:
Bet conservatively!
Betting kelly resizing you have a 50% chance of losing half your bank.
Betting .5 kelly resizing you have a 12.5% chance of losing half your bank.
Betting .25 kelly resizing you have a .008% chance of losing half your bank.
If variance is truly bothering you, this is the only way to have victory over variance.

If underfunded and you can't bet much you will be a victim of variance until your bank grows.

good cards
:joker::whip:

Amen, Brother Avenger!

 

[gamblingghost]

Amen, Brother Avenger!

I double that amen. Odds of losing 'half' your bank is an interesting
way to look at it. I like it.

 

[blackjack avenger]

If you Like This One

check out my thread

ROR, Risk or Reward?

:joker::whip:
An 8 is larger then infinity!

 

[Syph]

Poker is the game I have been studying lately. I was a stud and draw player way back when, but now I am trying to learn this hold'em in which everyone with a few hours experience believes themselves to be WSOP material. I see them blowing their total bankrolls frequently in their arrogant stupidity, so I think it's an area where I can profit. I don't think I can be a champion at any form of poker (I tried for many years in my youth), but I don't think it takes that much to beat a large number of those out there now-- just a solid game and some native smarts. My style never won big scores anyway-- just modest wins and even more modest losses, and many more wins than losses.

Ah, you go back a ways, eh?

I, too, have met many poker players convinced they were on the fast track to the WSOP finals. I patiently took one such friend through the numbers, and demonstrated that he would be far better off buying 5000 lotto tickets.

He didn't like that much.

For those interested in learning deep stack poker, I would encourage you all to head over to the low stakes, live forums at 2+2 and read all the posts by "always_tilting". He arrived in Vegas about thirty years ago with nothing but the shirt on his back, a small bankroll, and "a good car". He worked his way from the smallest stakes to the largest, and has exceptional advice for those just [re]entering the field.

You can trust his views on poker. He's lived it.

What stopped me from playing in my youth was no nearby casinos, and every home game for $5 or more had at least one mechanic or card sharp to contend with. In those days, it was not worth the hassle, unless you wanted to fight fire with fire (hustle the hustlers), but I didn't want the sum total of my life to be the ability to deal whisper-free bottoms. Instead, I chose the +EV of a college education, which I have never regretted. Some of my gambling buddies and acquaintances did go on to be successful-- kudos to them-- some not-- but everyone has to choose from whatever +EV opportunities life has to offer them in their particular circumstances.

Agreed.

In fact, some of my fondest memories are from university. Well, that's not entirely true. I've had some exceedingly fond memories from Japan, South Korea, and Thailand, but no matter. Truth be told, I don't really believe you've made it as an advantage player until you're skills/income have matured to the point where even entering a casino is -EV. I'm looking at options now as soon it may be time to retire altogether, buy my sailboat, and embark on a new adventure.

Maybe learn to swim, first.

Take care everyone, nice chatting with all of you. Monkey, no hard feelings bro, good luck with the job and your other interests. We all find our own path in this sparkly little world. And for those looking to move beyond counting, check out that paper by Alienated I linked to early.

Or maybe, just possibly ... try a little poker.



All the best,
Syph

 

[Tarzan]

So what's the answer?

Maybe more, how many deck tray is this? We would know this before sittin down.

What's the answer? How many decks? I didn't look at the tray at all... I was looking at the cards and ignoring the tray due to optical illusion effects, if any.