how good is good enough?

[ming]

hi! (i´m new here by the way)

i read somewhere that the recquirement for joining a professional team is counting down 10 decks whitout errors in less than 20 seconds per deck.

does that mean it´s ok to make one mistake every 11th deck? that seems like a lot of errors. but on the other hand one mistake per 10 decks shouldn´t matter so much since the whole thing is an approximation anyway, and since you only see about 75% of the cards. still, everybody says keep practice till you're perfect and dont hit the casino until you make NO errors. i´ve always wondered where to draw the line. When can i consider myself a "good" player. I know even the pros make errors but the question is HOW many errors is acceptable? and what doest it cost to make an error? i have statistics for basic strategy errors but i cant find anything about counting errors

 

[blackjack avenger]

Overlearn

hi! (i´m new here by the way)

i read somewhere that the recquirement for joining a professional team is counting down 10 decks whitout errors in less than 20 seconds per deck.

does that mean it´s ok to make one mistake every 11th deck? that seems like a lot of errors. but on the other hand one mistake per 10 decks shouldn´t matter so much since the whole thing is an approximation anyway, and since you only see about 75% of the cards. still, everybody says keep practice till you're perfect and dont hit the casino until you make NO errors. i´ve always wondered where to draw the line. When can i consider myself a "good" player. I know even the pros make errors but the question is HOW many errors is acceptable? and what doest it cost to make an error? i have statistics for basic strategy errors but i cant find anything about counting errors

Often runners or swimmers train at distances slightly beyond their event.

I believe the idea is if you perfect your play in the calm of home then when you get into the sensory overload conditions of the casino you might be good enough to make few if any errors.:joker::whip:

One error per 10 decks will not cost you much. However, how can you be sure you only make 1 error in a casino?:joker::whip: Another reason to strive for perfection at home where you can measure your error rate.

We are only human:joker::whip:

 

[Randyk47]

There's little doubt that your error rate will go up in a casino. There's a lot going on from the chatter at the table, the pit bosses hanging around, cocktail waitresses, lights, noises, etc., etc. You can't sit at a table and count looking like you're doing a research paper in a library. It's not only difficult but also draws pit bosses like a magnet. Personally I'm just getting back into playing after an extended break and I'm practicing at home teaching my wife basic strategy and count. I'm far from where I was once, maybe will never get back there as age is taking it's toll on my concentration, but not being "perfect" isn't going to keep me from the tables even though some here might say I'm stupid for going back without a full set of skills. For me I was at my best when I felt my basics were perfect, totally second nature, and my count was as close as I could get it but still play in a relaxed, natural way.

 

[EasyRhino]

You can play pretty darn sloppy and still have some sort of advantage. (technically sloppy, if you start steaming or go on tilt or play slots, you're in trouble).

However, I agree that having a training standard BETTER than what's actually needed in the casino is a much better idea to build a sort of buffer against inevitable errors.

 

[MFong]

You can play pretty darn sloppy and still have some sort of advantage. (technically sloppy, if you start steaming or go on tilt or play slots, you're in trouble).

You can just follow BS right?

~MFong

 

[EasyRhino]

What? No, just BS would still leave you at an advantage.

But if you kept a mostly accurate count, and played BS except for the most minor of exceptions, ramped your bets roughly correctly, you'd still be playing with an advantage.

Problem is that advantage would be shrunk. And that reduction would increase the time it takes to have a reasonable expectation of profit, and increase your risk of ruin. So it's still bad.

 

[MFong]

What? No, just BS would still leave you at an advantage.

But if you kept a mostly accurate count, and played BS except for the most minor of exceptions, ramped your bets roughly correctly, you'd still be playing with an advantage.

Problem is that advantage would be shrunk. And that reduction would increase the time it takes to have a reasonable expectation of profit, and increase your risk of ruin. So it's still bad.

So, without counting, just using BS with a steady bet, is better than counting incorrectly and betting when you think it's right?

~MFong

 

[EasyRhino]

So, without counting, just using BS with a steady bet, is better than counting incorrectly and betting when you think it's right?

It gets dicey, you'd probably have to simulate just how badly you're betting.

The biggest threat of thinking you're counting is that you're probably raising your bets, so more is at risk. It depends on your correlation with the correct bet for the correct count.

A correlation of +1.0 is perfect counting. You have the full advantage here.

A correlation of +0.5 is correct more often than not, but not good. However, the player probably still has an advantage if they're spreading big enough.

A correlation of +0.0 is effectively the same as random betting, flat betting, or any other crazy scheme. If more money is staked than flat betting, then it will cost more than flat betting.

A correlation of -1.0 is perfectly opposite betting. In this hard to achieve case, the player would dramatically increase the house edge. Probably not as much as completely failing at BS, but close.

This is why it's important to train to a highly relaible standard.

 

[Mimosine]

in a casino environment, being off by +/- 1 for a 6D game is acceptable and will not alter the outcome of your game. being off by 2 will alter your game a little depending on how deep you are in the shoe.

nevertheless strive for always being within +/- 1 for 6D or 8D games.

speed is less important than accuracy. 25 seconds is fast enough.

 

[creeping panther]

Ming

You need not be the fastest gunslinger in the Wild West my friend....just the most accurate:grin: Wild Bill was not the fastest, just the coolest head and the straightest aim.

I guarantee that when you get in the battle your speed will be one of the last things you will be thinking about. Just be fast enough, the more play the better you will get.

As to your team play, you saw the movie, right.........it was a movie, few teams remain, and your chances of getting on one are way slim.

Do your own thing, in your own time, you will be happier.

My Best

CP

 

[callipygian]

i read somewhere that the recquirement for joining a professional team is counting down 10 decks whitout errors in less than 20 seconds per deck.

Each professional team has their own requirements for joining. The requirements may or may not have anything to do with skills (for example, a team that primarily plays in Asia might require that you be of Asian descent to avoid suspicion).

does that mean it´s ok to make one mistake every 11th deck?

This depends on what kind of errors you're making. If you're doubling hard 18 every 11th deck, that's a much more serious error than counting a RC of +10 instead of +11 every 11th deck.

Here's the effect of various errors on advantage.

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/blackjackerrors2.htm