How often do you get each count?

[V-4-E]

It's maybe a simple question for math-people but I haven't found an equation yet.

How often do a TC +1, +2 and +3 occur in percentage in a 6-deck game while using the H-L?

It's my first post so I'm hoping I'm making myself clear

Thanks in advance

 

[Sonny]

It depends on the penetration. The deeper they deal, the more often you will see positive counts. You can get the numbers from a simulation program, and the book Blackjack Attack has charts for the most common games and penetration levels. Arnold Snyder also has a series of books called Beat The X-Deck Game that have the numbers for different numbers of decks. The best option would be a simulator like CVData from Qfit because you can adjust the rules and penetration to any settings you want.

-Sonny-

 

[assume_R]

As a tangential question, is the optimal bet you should be making (like those cvcx calculates) dependent on the frequency of each count as well as the actual advantage of each count? Does Kelly Betting take the frequency of each count into account?

 

[V-4-E]

It depends on the penetration. The deeper they deal, the more often you will see positive counts. You can get the numbers from a simulation program, and the book Blackjack Attack has charts for the most common games and penetration levels. Arnold Snyder also has a series of books called Beat The X-Deck Game that have the numbers for different numbers of decks. The best option would be a simulator like CVData from Qfit because you can adjust the rules and penetration to any settings you want.

-Sonny-

I'm afraid I'm not a Blackjack or a math-expert. I've downloaded the CV Data before but I'm pretty confused. I'm also not from a country which has English as mothertongue so it would be pretty hard for me to read a english book about Blackjack.

So if you had a standard equation or something like that?
Penetration 75%
6 decks
4 person.

If anyone could sim this for me I would be really happy. I'm only 13 so a lot of the english blackjack-words are nonsens to me and I can't get my parents to by me a book about blackjack or a program about blackjack

 

[rukus]

also important in determining the frequencies are number of players and if you are wonging, at what points.

 

[sagefr0g]

i think i got these numbers from Wong's Professional Blackjack

 

[V-4-E]

Thanks Sagefr0g that's really great.

But as said before I'm not a shark to the different Blackjack-words
What does f% means and 6D/52 for example.

I know I'm a noob but it's really great to learn a lot of new stuff here.

There are 4 players (including me) and I'm not wonging in.

 

[sagefr0g]

Thanks Sagefr0g that's really great.

But as said before I'm not a shark to the different Blackjack-words
What does f% means and 6D/52 for example.

I know I'm a noob but it's really great to learn a lot of new stuff here.

There are 4 players (including me) and I'm not wonging in.

you are welcome.

sorry i forgot how cryptic the symbols i used are....

f% stands for frequency percent (how often in the long term a given true count presents)

6D/52 is a way of denoting penetration.
in this case for a six deck pack fifty two cards are cut out of play.

 

[LIB]

As a tangential question, is the optimal bet you should be making (like those cvcx calculates) dependent on the frequency of each count as well as the actual advantage of each count? Does Kelly Betting take the frequency of each count into account?

According to Brett Harris' formula, the optimal bet takes account of the frequency of each counts along with the advantage associated with each count. However, so far as I know, Kelly Betting does not.

 

[assume_R]

According to Brett Harris' formula, the optimal bet takes account of the frequency of each counts along with the advantage associated with each count. However, so far as I know, Kelly Betting does not.

Thanks, for the response, LIB. Where can I find this formula? Do you have a link or reference?

 

[LIB]

You're welcome. If you go to bjmath.com, you'll find "table of contents" tab 2nd from the bottom on the left side. Top right corner has a box that says "betting strategies", and the aforementioned Brett Harris' formulas can be found under "bet sizing".

 

[Ravn]

you are welcome.

sorry i forgot how cryptic the symbols i used are....

f% stands for frequency percent (how often in the long term a given true count presents)

6D/52 is a way of denoting penetration.
in this case for a six deck pack fifty two cards are cut out of play.

Simply amazing. Thanks a lot - again

Every article or question I get an answer to improves my game a bit.
And great to see that others can benefit from my questoin :joker:

 

[rukus]

According to Brett Harris' formula, the optimal bet takes account of the frequency of each counts along with the advantage associated with each count. However, so far as I know, Kelly Betting does not.

correct - the reason is because the main gist of Brett's paper (as opposed to what i call "true" kelly betting) is that the player wants to fix his maximum bet and minimize his N0. the frequencies play a part in determining where that max bet is placed and are also used to calculate N0. in fact, though, for a fixed max bet, the brett's method should generate the same result as the kelly optimal method published by yamashita, which should also require TC frequencies. TRUE kelly betting in proportion to the advantage, without fixing a max bet, does not need TC frequencies. generally, though, in CVCX and other software, you have to fix a max bet and as such they use the frequencies.

again, note that these frequencies are the TC frequencies that YOU experience, not that the table experiences. what i mean is, if you just stand behind a table and watch the shoe but never jump in, you will get one set of TC frequencies. once you decide jump in though, you change the frequencies for each TC, and it is these adjusted frequencies that you must used when working with the fixed max bet formulas.

 

[assume_R]

correct - the reason is because the main gist of Brett's paper (as opposed to what i call "true" kelly betting) is that the player wants to fix his maximum bet and minimize his N0. the frequencies play a part in determining where that max bet is placed and are also used to calculate N0. in fact, though, for a fixed max bet, the brett's method should generate the same result as the kelly optimal method published by yamashita, which should also require TC frequencies. TRUE kelly betting in proportion to the advantage, without fixing a max bet, does not need TC frequencies. generally, though, in CVCX and other software, you have to fix a max bet and as such they use the frequencies.

again, note that these frequencies are the TC frequencies that YOU experience, not that the table experiences. what i mean is, if you just stand behind a table and watch the shoe but never jump in, you will get one set of TC frequencies. once you decide jump in though, you change the frequencies for each TC, and it is these adjusted frequencies that you must used when working with the fixed max bet formulas.

Yes, I completely understand. After combing through all the math, I was able to come up with my own optimal bet calculations using http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/Betsize/theory.htm (Archive copy) which essentially minimizes N0. I was glad he showed his derivations for both fixed and kelly betters and how they relate to each other. Thanks every1