Hunch

[eandre]

The results are contrary to the belief of other posters. The sim results also seem to run contrary to my minimal playing experience as well....

Don't let your variances drive your thought processes. Many posters are theorests and technical experts without a load of table time. Use the information provided by these experts and develop your own style of play as long as you are winning money. We all have unexplainable runs both good and bad easily explained away by standard deviation. I don't always subscribe to that logic. When you finsih a session, evaluate your play. Did you fall prey to over betting or under betting? Did you bend to table pressures and make a gut call instead of the right call? Did you ever lose count? Did you catch your fair share of splits/doubles? Were you a bj magnet and catch 4-5 in a shoe?
Who cares if someone does not believe you. Also as you continue to learn the game, you will need more skills than counting to beat the casinos long term.

 

[zengrifter]

I have run some sims comparing my DD play with various Wong out points. The results seem to indicate that a "play all" stategy gets similar results as Wong out at -10 (Zen).

I'd appreciate hearing from DD players with experience on this and to confirm my sim results by comparing with sims run by others.

-10 exit is not wonging, its play all.
A -3 exit would still be wonging. zg

 

[Hunch]

Trip #8

Win: $146.50
Game: DD; LS; H17; DOA2; DAS
Casino Time: 5 hours
Pen: Consistently 75%
Trip Cash: $2,000.00
Wong Out: -5 (Zen)
Spread: $15 - $275

 

[BrianCP]

Jesus, a little less than a 1-20 spread at a DD game? That is a crazy spread, especially for a DD game which can be beaten with a significantly smaller spread. You might be risking a lot of heat by spreading that much on a DD game.

 

[jerseycounter]

Where is this dd game if you don't mind me asking? I'm in search of dd games on the east coast but have not even heard of any around...and I agree with briancp about that rediculous spread.

 

[blackjack avenger]

Some Holes in Your Game

Your trip bank should be half your bank, you do not want to bust out on a trip.

At what point do they call checks play on bets? You should stay below that threshold until your bank is rather conservative.

Wong in when you think you can
Wong out when you think you can
This will take experience

If you are playing the same casinos repeatedly you need to find a reasonable spread, what is reasonable? This will take experience, but with spread does come diminishing returns. In general, the bigger your overall bets the lower your spread should be.

With roughly a 10g bank, from table minimum $5, $10, $15 to double $75 to $80 seems a reasonable spread if they call checks play at $100. Finally, don't have your 2 hand bets always the same, as an example $50, $75 appears better then double $60.

good cards:joker::whip:

 

[Hunch]

Trip #9

Counting Method: Complete Zen
Full Index Matrix: Modified Zen
Game: DD LS DA2 H17
Trip Cash: $1,700.00
Pen: 75%-80%
Table Min: $10.00
Wong Out: -7
Players: 2-5
Spread: $10 - $125.00
Trip Results: Won $875.00
YTD: +$3,539.00
Original Bank: $10,000.0
Current Bank: $13,539.00

 

[Hunch]

Where is this dd game if you don't mind me asking? I'm in search of dd games on the east coast but have not even heard of any around...and I agree with briancp about that rediculous spread.

PM me to discuss game location.

 

[Hunch]

Your trip bank should be half your bank, you do not want to bust out on a trip.

At what point do they call checks play on bets? You should stay below that threshold until your bank is rather conservative.

Wong in when you think you can
Wong out when you think you can
This will take experience

If you are playing the same casinos repeatedly you need to find a reasonable spread, what is reasonable? This will take experience, but with spread does come diminishing returns. In general, the bigger your overall bets the lower your spread should be.

With roughly a 10g bank, from table minimum $5, $10, $15 to double $75 to $80 seems a reasonable spread if they call checks play at $100. Finally, don't have your 2 hand bets always the same, as an example $50, $75 appears better then double $60.

good cards:joker::whip:

This game appears to be pretty loose with little heat. I can't explain why, doesn't seem to make sense to me either. They call cheques play sometimes with black action, not always. Pit critters don't come running over. I usually don't take more than $2K for the trip because I don't plan on playing for more than a few hours. The reason for varying my bets so much is that I see others getting away with it and I don't wong out as much as I should.

 

[Hunch]

Trip #10

Trip #9
Counting Method: Complete Zen
Full Index Matrix: Modified Zen
Game: DD LS DA2 H17
Trip Cash: $1,700.00
Pen: 75%-80%
Table Min: $10.00
Wong Out: -7
Players: 2-5
Spread: $10 - $125.00
Trip Results: Won $875.00
YTD: +$3,539.00
Original Bank: $10,000.0
Current Bank: $13,539.00

Trip #10
Method: Same as above
Game: 6D; LS; DA2; H17; LL
Trip Cash: $2,300.00
Pen: 75%
Table Min: $5
Players: 6
Spread: $5.00 to $125.00
Trip Results: Won $195.00
YTD: +$3,734.00
Total Bank: $13,734.00

Heat: Left after winning several top bets in a row. Wen't from down $300 to up $195 in half a shoe. Dealer commented on my awsome timing, but only called cheques play once.

 

[Hunch]

Trips 11 & 12

Trip #10
Method: Same as above
Game: 6D; LS; DA2; H17; LL
Trip Cash: $2,300.00
Pen: 75%
Table Min: $5
Players: 6
Spread: $5.00 to $125.00
Trip Results: Won $195.00
YTD: +$3,734.00
Total Bank: $13,734.00

Trip # 11
Method: Complete Zen
Game: 6D; LS; DA2; H17; LL
Trip Cash: $3,000.00
Pen: 70%
Table Min: $5
Players: 6
LL: No opportunities
Table Time: 1 hour approx.
Spread: $5.00 to $50.00 (count never required larger max bet)
Trip Results: Won $355.00
Total Bank: $14,089.00

Trip # 12

Method: Complete Zen
Game: 2D; LS; DA2; H17
Trip Cash: $3,355.00
Pen: 75%
Table Min: $10
Players: 5-6
Table time: 3 hours approx.
Spread: $10.00 to $125
Played two hands, wonged out tc-5
Trip Results: Won $735.00
Ytd: +$4,824.00
Total Bank: $14,824.00

 

[Hunch]

Trip #13

Trip # 12

Method: Complete Zen
Game: 2D; LS; DA2; H17
Trip Cash: $3,355.00
Pen: 75%
Table Min: $10
Players: 5-6
Table time: 3 hours approx.
Spread: $10.00 to $125
Played two hands, wonged out tc-5
Trip Results: Won $735.00
Ytd: +$4,824.00
Total Bank: $14,824.00

Starting Bank: $14,824.00
Game: Will no longer disclose type of game or location for security reasons.
Trip Cash: 1,800.00
Pen: 60-70%
Spread: $10.00 - $125.00
Hands: Two
Wong out: -5
Trip Results: Won $1,045.00
Ytd: $5,869.00
Ending Bank: $15,869.00

 

[Hunch]

Trip #14

Starting Bank: $14,824.00
Game: Will no longer disclose type of game or location for security reasons.
Trip Cash: 1,800.00
Pen: 60-70%
Spread: $10.00 - $125.00
Hands: Two
Wong out: -5
Trip Results: Won $1,045.00
Ytd: $5,869.00
Ending Bank: $15,869.00

Trip #14
Playing Time: 4-5 hours
Starting Bank: $15,869.00
Trip Cash: $1,500.00
Hands: Two
Trip Results: Loss $255.00
Ending Bank: $15,614.00

 

[Hunch]

Trip #15

Trip #14
Playing Time: 4-5 hours
Starting Bank: $15,869.00
Trip Cash: $1,500.00
Hands: Two
Trip Results: Loss $255.00
Ending Bank: $15,614.00

Playing time: 3-4 hours
Starting Bank: $15,614.00
Trip Cash: $1,000.00
Hands: Two
Trip Results: Won $838.00
Ending Bank: $16,452.00

 

[LovinItAll]

@Hunch: Keep 'em coming!

 

[Dyepaintball12]

You sure do win a lot!

 

[Hunch]

You sure do win a lot!

You don't hear me complaining and I hope I don't need to apologize for winning. Just posting the results.

 

[Hunch]

Trip #16

Played a total of about 4 hours at two casinos.

Trip Results: Won $47.50
Free play - Job: Won $51.50
Trip Bank: $1,500.00

 

[Nynefingers]

You need to take a lot more with you to the casinos. In a lot of cases your trip bank is around 6-7 max bets. It's really easy to lose that much in one shoe, and if you are down some before that bad run, it will be pretty easy to bust out. If you lose your entire session roll once, that's too often.

 

[Hunch]

You need to take a lot more with you to the casinos. QUOTE]

Duly noted. I'm ok with getting tapped out and returning another day with another trip bank. Although I would obviously have some additional travel expense I don't think it would otherwise change my long term results. I think it would look more natural, like a gambler, to lose and go home a loser. You're not the first to suggest it. Luckily, I haven't needed a larger trip bank, yet. Thanks for the input.