I am so far above expectation, should I keep playing?

[Toxic]

I took my game to a more serious level in March. I went from a hobby red chip player to a green chip playing semi-pro. Purchased software, practiced more, and the big thing was, threw down the money for my Bankroll. Since playing roughly 30 sessions, my BR has increased by 40%!

I've used CVCX to play with a 1-3% ror and determined that Expectation is $60-$110 per hour depending on conditions that I play. I have made something like $185 hourly.

I know that I am well within ranges of possibilities, and that if I can continue playing a +EV game that I should.. But what about the saying:

"If you are the smartest man in the room, you need to find a new room."

I may not always be the smartest person in a casino, but regardless; I feel like I'm not creating any VALUE when playing as an AP. Will we be happy that we spent so much time grinding out a 1% edge at the end of our lives?

Think about the people we spend our time with when we go to work. They are addicts, smokers, and generally not people you would invite to dinner.

I don't, in any way, want to detract or talk down on the AP's out there who do this as a living, I'm simply looking for more direction in my life. I've completely changed my attitude on money, now viewing it as a tool only.

Zg, I always love your responses, please cross post this to the zen zone if possible.

 

[johndoe]

You're not the only one with these concerns. In this line of work you really aren't "creating" anything of value at all. You're just skimming off the top some money flowing between the casino and ploppies. If that troubles you, keep BJ as an enjoyable, profitable hobby, and do something else that's more rewarding.

Grinding out 1% among casino degenerates seems like a pretty miserable career to me. To each their own.

 

[Meistro]

obviously u keep playing what sort of question is that

 

[Wizards Jabbering monkey]

Unless your at the top of your field you are right its not worth it . 35 years later I still ask myself that question

 

[Flamethrower]

Money has value does it not? If you bring in a revenue stream you are in fact creating value. Of course money has to be applied to create actual value. For instance, you notice a business creating product X, but it's horrible quality, they treat their workers like shit, ect. To improve the market you could work for the company, try moving to the top, and making changes. OR.. you could compete (way better). For this you need capital/money.

Now, for estimating the "is it worth to continue" factor: that is what CE (certainty equivilency) is for correct? Maybe someone can school me on that because I'm new to the game as well..

 

[sagefr0g]

....

Now, for estimating the "is it worth to continue" factor: that is what CE (certainty equivilency) is for correct? Maybe someone can school me on that because I'm new to the game as well..

CE ? it’s imho a really neat concept, one for which i myself was long into the AP realm before even having a clue about. years ago, a member of this forum, very satisfactorily explained the essence of the concept.

i’ll try and give my take on it. and rest assured it won’t amount to much as i’m a really lost puppy that just finds this concept really interesting.

CE is indeed tied to the question of, ‘is it worth it’. the perfect question with respect to a gamble, no? hmm, well maybe, or maybe not. CE can have a numerical value, hence it can be objectively considered and yet because it is a question directed at you, hence it also is ultimately a subjective question, lol.

basically one is presented with a proposition, a certain payoff vs a gamble with a chance of a payoff or not. one can imagine that the proposition could be conceivably offered in various ways (a spectrum of offers) conditionally other than it has been offered. the point at which one would take the gamble with a chance of a payoff instead of the certain payoff is the certainty equivalence point.

example:

i owe you $10. you say, “hey Chump, pay me my ten bucks”. instead i offer you a proposition. i say, “ hey Fish, calm down, lemme make you an offer. sure, sure, i’ll pay you your ten bucks, but wait, whata yah say we flip a coin, i win, you forget the $10, you win, i pay yah $15? hey hows about it Fish?” so you go, “naw man, pay up’. i go, “ alright calm down now, hows about we flip and i win, you forget the $10, but if i lose i pay yah $20?

perhaps this proposition making goes on and on.,,.,.

point being, at some point the fish is likely to take the bait, i.e. make the bet, instead of getting his certain payoff. that point, is the fish’s certainty equivalency point.

 

[So_what_MD]

Johnny Chung of MIT blackjack taught me this. I find it extremely useful emotionally, not so much financially. We all know the game is continuous as long as we go back, either resume the next hand/shoe, or stay away for a month and start again, we are picking up from the same point we left off last time. I asked Johnny how much is enough for a night? Johnny uses a slightly different version, I give you a dime but you must flip with me to earn it. if u win u get 20 cents if you lose you are back to nothing. We flip and you win. I ask if you will flip again. You may say yes or no cos the amount is INSIGNIFICANT. Let's change the amount to one million. You win. Now u have 2 million. Will you flip again? If you are a normal working class you may choose to keep your cool 2 million. What about 500,000? 100,000? 1000? 500? He said it is a gamble you like to win but can't afford to lose. Like $400 winning after a rough night.

Since the game is continuous, If I lose a big hand ar the end of the night but win it back next time, no difference financially. Emotionally CE helps me to sleep better. My CE is $350-$500. At the end of a big run if I score 800 and give it all back plus another 500 i find it hard to fall asleep that night lol.

I am new to this. Fellow gurus pls comment.

 

[Toxic]

Good to know. I am hoping to use my bankroll on a business venture once I have doubled it. This business will create value.

On a side note, can someone help me with the DD index for 12 v 4? I got an error for standing when playing CVBJ. Game is h17 doa DAS

 

[KewlJ]

Since the game is continuous, If I lose a big hand ar the end of the night but win it back next time, no difference financially. Emotionally CE helps me to sleep better. My CE is $350-$500. At the end of a big run if I score 800 and give it all back plus another 500 i find it hard to fall asleep that night lol.

Sounds like a 'stop limit' to me. You are dressing it up a little differently, but it is still the same 'pig'. Stop limits based on win or loss amounts are just kind of voodoo thinking to me. Doesn't change a thing in the long-term and that's what this game is really about.

If you need something to "help you sleep at night" after a negative run, try this: Don't track your actual wins and losses. I mean you sort of have to track them I guess, but don't focus on them. Focus on what I call "accumulating EV". The wins and losses swirl around, dip under, sometimes significantly under for a while, then bounce above, but in the end...in the long run....whatever that may be, the accumulated EV and win will come back together.

Focusing on accumulating EV, rather than those spiking up and down, wins and losses, allows you to see that steady incline upwards more clearly. And that should make for better sleeping.

 

[Meistro]

A stop loss isn't necessarily a bad idea. There are some advantages to quitting while you are down. First of all, if you happen to be a victim of cheating, then certainly that would entail a sharp and swift downswing, and the longer you stuck around the more you would stand to lose. Losing can also be rage and frustration inducing. These emotions, if they build up enough, can overcome your rational brain and put you on tilt. Whether you are winning or losing is really only one part of the whole 'stay or quit' decision making matrix. If game conditions are optimal then you should be inclined to stay either way but sticking around just to try to get unstuck is ill advised, especially if the game has become crowded or the cut less attractive.

But I dislike the idea of a win limit. When conditions are optimal, you have a heads up game with a fast dealer, great cut, good rules and you start winning, that is the time to sit your ass in the chair and put in some volume. The difference in hourly rate between optimal conditions and the worst conditions can be as much as 4x to 5x so you really want to maximize the hours you put in when the game is good.

 

[KewlJ]

Meistro, I was speaking strictly in terms of stop limits effecting long-term win/loss as well as how it effects getting a good night's sleep....which is actually kind of silly. I don't sleep any differently having won or lost 5 figures, both of which only happen a handful of times a year. The important thing to me is that I played well and accumulated EV. Everything else will come out in the wash.

If you are looking past a stop win/loss for reasons of changing your long-term results (which they will not), there are good reasons to quit in both directions on the longevity front. Whether you are playing rated, or playing unrated, but somewhat know (where they assign you a name), booking a loss will increase longevity. And leaving after a moderate win, rather than running up a bigger win, the kind that draw attention and scrutiny, can also increase longevity.

So if someone where to use these reasons for their stop limits, I can appreciate that more than "feeling good about winning a certain daily amount" or sleeping better.

I myself, as someone with a top priority of longevity see the value in 'booking a loss' as well as avoid a really large win. But I don't have to incorporate this into my game plan, as my other exit triggers, will take care of that.

 

[xengrifter]

DD index for 12 v 4? I got an error for standing when playing CVBJ. Game is h17 doa DAS

Doesn't matter what CVBJ says - your index for 12v4 in any game is the same as 16v10 - zero - so you flip the proverbial coin.

 

[sagefr0g]

Sounds like a 'stop limit' to me. You are dressing it up a little differently, but it is still the same 'pig'. Stop limits based on win or loss amounts are just kind of voodoo thinking to me. Doesn't change a thing in the long-term and that's what this game is really about.

If you need something to "help you sleep at night" after a negative run, try this: Don't track your actual wins and losses. I mean you sort of have to track them I guess, but don't focus on them. Focus on what I call "accumulating EV". The wins and losses swirl around, dip under, sometimes significantly under for a while, then bounce above, but in the end...in the long run....whatever that may be, the accumulated EV and win will come back together.

Focusing on accumulating EV, rather than those spiking up and down, wins and losses, allows you to see that steady incline upwards more clearly. And that should make for better sleeping.

me, i just feel better when i win money for some given event or trip. so i am kind of goal driven.

but anyway, the statement quoted above makes me realize something i don’t fully understand or aren’t able to make practical sense of.

i’ve heard such a statement made by several reputable ap’s. talking about building up that EV, ‘getting it under their belt’, even if the results weren’t fruitful. it’s stated as if that’s a good thing.

so my question is, why is that a good thing?

it almost seems to me as if past plus ev events that didn’t produce, is like ‘water under the bridge’ sorta thing. over and done with, foughgetaboutit. but then I realize, any given plus ev event has a ‘success’ frequency, thus given enough same conditional events ‘success’ should eventually present, so i guess there is a ‘success’ probability attached to said events. and being the nature of the outcomes of probabilistic events it takes some number of attempts before ‘success’ is realized, sorta thing.

another question. one, hears ap’s talk about the fact, that one is never due. there is no, due, due, lol. but just me maybe, it seems as if there is some intrinsic value to the accumulation of having made plus ev plays even if not successful, that perhaps there is some degree of due, due, no?

 

[KewlJ]

You make a good point, Senor Frog. There is a bit of contradiction in my thinking I guess.

In the short term or short run you are never "due". The last 14 roulette spins coming out red, doesn't change the odds of the next spin. And in blackjack, having lost or gone backwards for a month straight doesn't mean that the next day is any more likely to be a winning day.

But....there is something called the 'Law of Large Numbers', which says "in the long run", and that's the key....not necessarily today or tomorrow or the next spin, but "the long run", that results come back in line with expectation. I will leave it to the "math guys", smarter than myself, to debate and define exactly what the long run is, but it's the sort of thing where you have to believe in the math....and I do....and it hasn't failed me yet, in now 14 years.

 

[sagefr0g]

me, i didn't find anything about your post contradictory, Kewlwon. i just find the question of goal or no goal, a subjective one, even if it's probably best (in an economic sense) to just get in as much plus ev play as possible, goal be dammed, lol. that said, like in my case, i don't find much solace focusing on the fact i got a bunch of ev in, but some money won, yep, solace. emotions are a pretty neigh impossible thing to overcome, even with definitive intellectual understanding. time (speaking of the long run , however 'heals all wounds', long as we survive.
the long run concept, i kind of think can be partially understood if we think of probabilistic events with respect to their frequency of presenting. example: jacks or better video poker. the frequency of getting a royal flush is around once in forty thousand hands. some aficionados call that a cycle for the royal. the same aficionados will tell you that you may land up playing over a cycle, maybe two cycles, or three ..., before you get a royal. talk about a long run, eh? but still the frequency is one in forty thousand hands, sorta thing. same sort of thing with coin flipping or doubling down on an eleven against a dealers six at a given count. there's some expected cycle, but it's not always realized at any given time, except as we 'approach' the long run and then take an average of the results. take and play a 'huge' number of cycles of some probabilistic event then average the 'success s' and we should realize the expected frequency.
that's my lost puppy way of understanding the long run, others mileage may vary, cause i may be just plain wrong.
anyway i like your take on, never being due in the short term.

 

[KewlJ]

Here's a little story on when and how I personally learned that lesson, that you are never due (in the short run). I don't have the exact numbers anymore, but I can use close enough approximates to tell the story.

It was probably my 4 or 5 year because I wasn't playing low red chip, I had move up just a hair. So I start every year at zero. That the way the government does it, so that's the way I do it. So I get out of the gate very strong, like 4 or 5 times expected value for the first month or 6 weeks of the year. I am convinced a "correction" or down turn is coming. So I cut my spread, including max bet in half, thinking I will only lose half as much during this "correction".

So the downturn never really came. What happened was that I continued winning, not every day of course, but a slow gradual increase. A little less than EV but still winning. So what I managed to do was win half as much as I should have over those final 11 months or so. By the end of the year, if I had played my regular spread an max bet, my winnings and EV would have been almost exact. As it was they still were pretty close to exact. Only thing was both winnings and EV were reduced by half for the last 11 months of the year.

That is when I decided that nothing matters in the short run. If you have been losing, you could just as well continue losing or you could start winning. The cards don't know that you are way above or way below expectation. But in the longer run (and it's debatable what that is), it has to come out close(r) to expectation. The math says so. And believe in the math.

 

[xengrifter]

I believe in the math.

You and Frankie Lane.

 

[Wizards Jabbering monkey]

Pound away while u can , take as much as u can . We use to use 5X over expectation in a quick session 30 to 40 min walk and let the bp schmooze as cover play . Play as little as he could ,chat chat chat then walk . Our sessions were 10 k min , so if we were up 50 , thats what we would do . Bpcould not give back more than 10 . If it was a cherry sit we would come back hit it later with a different bp. But in essence as a pro your whole life is the long run. Ha Ha Ha .

 

[stopgambling]

Nobody talks about what else you can do with that money and what amount of money was it. If i have a bankroll of 50k and i won 50k on some miraculous stretch of time . i can do some other profitable ventures with it besides gambling(counting)

 

[stopgambling]

maybe bitcoin ? lol.