I can answer any clumping question here.

[KewlJ]

1- You can arrange cards anyway you want, with bad plays from players and those that come into the game or leave plus others going from one to two hands back and forth, how would you retain your advantage ?
2- Clumping cards ... so what ? You cut the shoe randomly and what happens ?

If there is a clump of 10 value cards and a small clump of aces and they are kept separate, it makes zero difference how players play, who joins or exits the game mid shoe, or where the cut occurs. These two clumps kept separate will result in fewer blackjacks.....advantage house.

The two things you will see is 1). a clump of aces, 4 or 5 aces come out within a 8 card span. Sometimes even 3 or 4 aces in a row, And 2), a larger clump of 10 value cards resulting in dealer/player pushes. It makes no difference where either of these clumps come out as long as they are kept separate.

And yes both of these kinds of clumps can occur naturally. So I am in no way saying every time you see 3 consecutive aces come out or 4 aces within a 6 card span, or a couple rounds of dealer player pushes, that this cheating is occurring. But that is what it looks like when it does occur and something to be on the lookout for, just as a player playing hand held games is vigilant of a dealer dealing seconds.

 

[The G Man]

If you'd ever spend times, I mean HOURS practicing Blackjack on you kitchen table and also played it in casinos that use manual shuffles, you would have seen it all. I SHUFFLE THE CARD BY MYSELF, use different types of shuffles and it never prevent Aces to appear, sometimes 3-4 in a row, etc. You are telling stories to yourself, trying to see paterns where there is none. You believe yourself and make that an excuse for losing. Most counters can't take the facts of the game and try to find answers to their mistakes in the shuffles, dealers, others at the table and so on.

What you are saying is bullshit. Take six decks of cards and try to arrange things like you say with 4-6 players at the table. Bunch of smalls, bunch of 10s and bunch of Aces all separated from one another by what ??? Separate by seven or eight cards all ranked 7-9 ???

Welcome to the real world, this game is a roller coaster and you need the mindset AND the money to withstand it.

 

[AchillesBlackjack]

I’m grabbing some popcorn for the comments, does anyone else want anything? Twix?, drinks?, kitkats?, rolos?

 

[KewlJ]

If you'd ever spend times, I mean HOURS practicing Blackjack on you kitchen table and also played it in casinos that use manual shuffles, you would have seen it all. I SHUFFLE THE CARD BY MYSELF, use different types of shuffles and it never prevent Aces to appear, sometimes 3-4 in a row, etc. You are telling stories to yourself, trying to see paterns where there is none. You believe yourself and make that an excuse for losing. Most counters can't take the facts of the game and try to find answers to their mistakes in the shuffles, dealers, others at the table and so on.

I have been playing this game for a living for 19 years now, 13 in Las Vegas, where I live. For most of those 19 years I played in the neighborhood of 80,000 rounds per year. In the last 3 years, which I will call the covid years, I have been playing a bit differently, less hours at about 40,000 - 50,000 rounds.

I also practice, not daily like I used to but still practice 3 times a week. My preferred method of practice is dealing cards to myself at the blackjack table in my home.

So I too have seen it all, both at the practice table and play in the casinos. I also purchased a shufflemaster machine some 4 or 5 years back, had it shipped to my home and hired someone with programming knowledge (because I have none). They were able to re-program the machine in a matter of minutes to do exactly what I suspected.

I don't make these comments lightly. I have run into machines that were programmed to clump cards at 2 different casinos that I know of in my 12 years playing Las Vegas. I am absolutely sure of it. There are 2 additional cases I strongly suspect, but won't go as far as to say absolutely sure. So again, I am not saying it is wide spread. In my experience it is not.

In addition, the second time I encountered a rigged machine clumping cards, and the first time I really looked into it, I named the casino here in Las Vegas, after tracking hundreds of shoes. I posted of my experience here and at Norm's forum and within a few days the machines in question (2 newer models) were removed from that casino.

AND I caught hell from a top AP team operating here in Vegas that were exploiting that clumping in a way I probably would have never figured out. To this day, one of the guys on that team, who I was friendly with still barely speaks to me.

I know what I am talking about. I don't care who believes me or doesn't. Someday it will come out. In the meantime, all I am suggesting is players be vigilant.

 

[KewlJ]

And by the way, G man, I have shared my experiences publicly including results each year for 16 years now. I have had years that I have been 60k below expectation twice and years 40-50k above expectation several times. Just two years ago 2020 (covid year), my blackjack earnings were about 14k vs expectation of almost 90k. I was actually in the red until late in the year. So I know a thing or two about variance.

I actually play a style that invites higher variance, playing different spreads, bet ramps and max bets at different casinos and during different days and times according to what I determine the tolerance levels are for that particular casino at that particular time. THAT has been one of my secrets to longevity, but it also invites and reeks havoc with variance and swings. I am neither afraid of variance, nor need to find excuses for it.

 

[The G Man]

If you know so much about these machines, why don't you take action ? You can take legal action or take action by outing these casinos, shifts, bosses, that do these cheating maneuvers. Give us a dump or two where we can go and witness these "beast". If the clumps are so predictable, just out these casinos and we'll all going there and make them pay so much they will go bankrupt.

PS. What's your handle on Norm's Blackjack: The Forum ?

 

[KewlJ]

If you know so much about these machines, why don't you take action ? You can take legal action or take action by outing these casinos, shifts, bosses, that do these cheating maneuvers. Give us a dump or two where we can go and witness these "beast". If the clumps are so predictable, just out these casinos and we'll all going there and make them pay so much they will go bankrupt.

PS. What's your handle on Norm's Blackjack: The Forum ?

I am no longer on Norm's forum. Handle was KJ. I made the first 8 posts on the forum and participated for 4 years before being banned. The posts made concerning this topic were under Spiderman.

There was a group looking into legal action at the time. It was less a lawsuit and more a complaint with the Gaming Commission. As an active player, I had no interest in being the face of that action. Michael Shackleford was recruited and had interest in being the face of the complaint but the machines in question at the time had already quickly been removed by the casino and nothing came of it.

If another opportunity comes up, I still have no interest as long as I am an active AP in this town.

 

[Secretarriat]

Hey guys. I found some old data about clumped shoes experiments.

The numbers come from simulations with Boris for Blackjack by author Ron Fitch.
Ellis Clifton Davis came up with similar results with Atlantic City casinos live sessions.
Apparently Davis’ team recorded data from hundreds of shoes, maybe thousands. Not sure.

As far as I know, Kewjl and BJGenius007 are the latest clump researchers.
They did their homework on the subject.

So, Kewjl and 007 did your experiments deliver similar numbers
To the ones below?


Shuffle type Random Non random
Average Dealer Total 18.23 19.10
Average Dealer Break 28.3% 20.2%
Average Dealer Hand 2.7 Cards 3.5 Cards
Avg Max Dealer Cards 4 6
Dealer Breaks with an Ace 13% 6% of time
Basic Strategy Hands-Won-Ratio = 48.5% 42.3%
Dealer-favorable rounds 50% 70%
Naturals (BJ's) 1 in 21 hands 1 in 30 hands (approx.)

 

[DSchles]

Ron Fitch, alias Boris, was a raving lunatic, who was laughed out of the blackjack community by every sane researcher who ever existed. He was a laughing stock, and the above statistics are pure fiction, from the twisted mind of an imbecile.

It truly ought not to behoove you to quote him.

Don

 

[Secretarriat]

How can you be so sure it's pure fiction Don? He's done simulations. What do you know about his software? You know I am just asking questions to the latest researchers on the topic?

 

[BJgenius007]

Sorry I am delaying answering questions. I am gradually losing my eyesight. So it is tough to prepare my tax this year. I will answer all the questions after Tax Day.

 

[DSchles]

How can you be so sure it's pure fiction Don? He's done simulations. What do you know about his software? You know I am just asking questions to the latest researchers on the topic?

The simulations were garbage. Utter bullshit. E. Clifton Davis was depraved. These two were the laughing stock of the Internet for years and years. Do you not go back far enough to remember them? Maybe you can go back on some of the forums or websites and find discussions of these two imbeciles.

Really don't want to discuss this anymore. You have those who believe in this nonsense and can't be swayed in their opinions. Serious players know it's all ridiculous, but the beat goes on.

Don

 

[Secretarriat]

The simulations were garbage. Utter bullshit. E. Clifton Davis was depraved. These two were the laughing stock of the Internet for years and years. Do you not go back far enough to remember them? Maybe you can go back on some of the forums or websites and find discussions of these two imbeciles.

Really don't want to discuss this anymore. You have those who believe in this nonsense and can't be swayed in their opinions. Serious players know it's all ridiculous, but the beat goes on.

Don

I don't care that much about opinions and personalities I want data and observations Don. I can make up my own mind after. The only data I could find on the subject was from your "friend" Ron, so that's a starting point. That's all. His sims are garbage? Maybe but why and how? Anyway, I am much more interested about what "our" two modern searchers here have found and observed. Take your time 007.

 

[The G Man]

 

[DSchles]

I don't care that much about opinions and personalities I want data and observations Don. I can make up my own mind after. The only data I could find on the subject was from your "friend" Ron, so that's a starting point. That's all. His sims are garbage? Maybe but why and how? Anyway, I am much more interested about what "our" two modern searchers here have found and observed. Take your time 007.

Enjoy. I'm completely out of this. It was garbage then and it's garbage now. And, it's not about "opinions and personalities." It's about what is fact and what is fiction.

Don

 

[Secretarriat]

Well, someone has to pick up the garbage Don. That's a fact since the beginning of humanity!

 

[The G Man]

You seem to do a pretty good job at it. Have fun.

 

[Secretarriat]

... So says The G Man.
Does that mean The Garbage man?

Sorry, could not resist.
Hope you enjoyed it!

 

[BJgenius007]

You will never be able to casually notice any such patterns objectively. Basing advantage play on this is no different than noticing the roulette wheel hasn't hit some specific number in a while so the wheel must be biased. It's pure confirmation bias and a terrible idea.

First, I am back. Tax preparation is exhausting this year for me because I cannot see the numbers well on my broker's documents Took me 5X time. Anyway it is over now back to Blackjack and clumping.

About this question. This is my survey routine. I stand behind the players to count the numbers of face and five on the first shoe to make sure the pre-shuffled cards are exactly what they should me. I often pay 6D. So I count faces and fives. There should be 96 faces and 24 fives. Should reach 80 and 20 or close to these two numbers if the penetration is 5D/6D. The main goal is to make sure there are no added or subtracted cards. In rare cases, I did find out I was about to play 6.5D Blackjack (but never 5.5D Blackjack). But that is another topic. The second goal is to see if the shoe is clumped. (But you cannot reach that conclusion in one shoe. If the first shoe is not clumped, you can hope today is a good day with unclumped shoes to come.) In most survey, faces cards are VERY randomly distributed because they contains K, Q, J, T. Fives could be not as evenly distributed because it is just one rank. If clump happens, you may see the count stay put after 20 cards pass by, then increase by seven in ten card sequence. The difference between hand-shuffled and ASM is that this happens about less than 10% or lower at hand-shuffled table but 40% or higher at ASM table. Normally ASM will QUITE OFTEN generate sequence like 5559552255 or 5585355255 or 55575554525, something like that. If you double your pair of fives, you have zero chance to win this hand because dealer will always win. If you do a survey ritual like me, you will see how often ASM generates this similar sequecne. I will elaborate more on other small card clump traps. But pair of fives trap is the most common one. All these traps have the same goal. You double, you lose. And it is in the extended long run of small card clump, so the TC is likely to be high so players have their max bet out.

In summary, most players use Hi-Lo or Zen count cannot detect the difference because they maintain one count using face card vs small card. But if you just count the absolute number on five card, and see how it progresses from the beginning to the end of the shoe, you can see the distribution of fives are very uneven on ASM, more so than hand-shuffled. Don't need big samples. Like watching ten hand-shuffled vs ten ASM, most people can see the difference. This assumes you already suspect the particular casino would activate beast mode to counter AP.

 

[BJgenius007]

Much has been written on the subject and it’s nice that you took a modern and serious look at it.
Obviously, random clumping exists but so does manufactured clumping through shuffling procedures (ASM and/or hand) and it’s not always easy to distinguish between the two. It seems that you now take advantage of ASM manufactured clumping with risk averse plays and tighter spreads.
Three questions

• Regarding ASM do you find casinos use what you describe as “beast” mode only at selective moments like busy Saturdays or do you see it consistently?
• Regarding hand shuffled games do you also find “manufactured” clumping at times? I have seen it at the most extremes like new cards, no wash, basic shuffle and deal. Something is indeed wrong when at high counts players get a Ten on a double down 20-25% of the time when the remaining ten ratio is in the 35-40% range.
• What kind of data can you provide us with? Are you aware of any sim based on “manufactured” clumping (ASM or hand). It seems that so far, no one has proved or disproved anything regarding that old clumping debate.

This is the answer to the second question. As I written on my first reply, there are three casinos near me. The third one is the most notorious one. They want to defend from AP and beat BS players on all fronts. Based on my observation, they did nothing on slow weekdays and let AP and good BS players win. But on busy weekend and holiday, they will set ASM on clumping mode and they will dealers that can clump cards well to shuffle. Some people sensitive can detect the difference between slow weekday and holiday, I like to read posts from ZenKing because he knows the phenomenon well and often bitching after defected on holiday. Basically, certain casinos expect to have big incomes on holiday. They will do something to make sure the incomes hit target as expected.

Also clumping cards is a more a creative process. On first shuffle, you see the ranks of cards on 1.2D and see what ingredients you have. Maybe you can create a clump of mid-card (7/8/9) or a clump of fives or a clump of twos. Let the opportunity presents itself. At least you can always put a group of face cards on the top of 1.2D and a gourp of small cards (A,2,3,4) on the bottom of 1.2D. This reduces the possiblity of Blackjack as face cards are separate from aces. Into face card clump, dealer is likely to push with players. Both have 20. When entering small card clump, dealer likely makes the hand while player chooses to stand on his hand.