I Don't Understand

[SammyBoy]

What is going on here? I have a favorite spot that I like to play Single Deck. It has ALL the same rules as their shoe games, double any 2, double after splitting, S17, with good pen. According to CBJN this is a positive EV game for a perfect basic strategy player. I, however have played there 98 hours this year and am down over $1400 or 140 units (-$14.50 per hour). What are the odds of this being possible? I'm using a 1 to 5 spread and Hi-Lo.

Besides this casino I have played 93.5 hours in about 9 others and am ahead $1660 or $17.77 per hour. Mostly double deck, but the occasional single deck with less favorable rules. Also the double deck penetration is usually not much better that .8 to 1.0.

I feel like I should be WAY ahead at the single deck game. I realize that this is not nearly enough time to get into the long run but what is the likelihood of my results? Thanks.

SammyBoy

 

[k mcmi]

I dont have the statistics handy, but I can tell you that you are WELL within normal deviations. In Ian Anderson's "Burning the Tables", he talks about playing at a major resort over 12 weekends and being down over 1500 units. Asumming he played 8-10 hours per weekend, his hours would be similiar to yours, and although the does not say exactly how many decks were being used nor the rules or penetration, you can be sure that a player of his caliber would not be playing a bad game. Keep smiling, keep on playing and your results will ultimately correlate stronly to expectation
K MCMI

 

[learning to count]

Ic hecked CBJN and the best games I found were north nevada. These games had a .06 vig on them. The next games I found that were good were in downtwon LV with a .18 vig. I did not see any games that had a positive vig when played with BS. Could you at least detail the area you saw this game listed in cbjn. I cant find it.

 

[The Mayor]

There are several, one for example is the Barcelona in far North Las Vegas.

As far as odds -- you played 97 hours. If I were to take a guess, I'd say you are still in the 1-st standard deviation with your results (unfortunately). The truth is that 97 hours is almost nothing at all to the game of BJ.

You might want to read this essay which gives some interesting results for 300 hours.

http://www.cardcounter.com/Essays/Three_Hundred_Hours.htm (Archive copy)

 

[jimmy]

Assuming the SD/hand in BJ is 1(in fact it is a little bit more), and you play 400 hands. One SD would be then SQRT of 400=20. My question: How do you call it, if some one is losing(winning) 80 units? I think, you don`t talk about winning or losing 4 or 5 SDs. OR?

 

[learning to count]

Barcelona's lowest vig is .49. No one deckers are listed all are 2 deckers.

 

[The Mayor]

It is not listed.

The game usually only plays from 3PM to midnight (sometimes 6PM to midnight). It is single deck, LSR, DAS, with a few bonuses (like any total of 21 wins automatically). It is a very good game. And not listed in CBJN.

Two problems:
1) $100 max bet.
2) RO5.

--Mayor

 

[SammyBoy]

Thanks Mayor

Your example also illustrates the advantage of team play.

 

[Coug Fan]

I made an assumption re: pen at 35/52 (you said "Good" but not "great"). I further assumed a betting ramp of 1-5 units ramping with the TC (2 units at TC=2, etc). I further assumed Hi-Lo with I18, 1 other player, 100 hands per hour, NO PLAYING/BETTING ERRORS, and NO COVER BETS/PLAYS.

Based on these assumptions, per BJRM, your results is very unlikely, with only a 3.2% likelihood of this result or worse.

If we change the assumptions a bit and say 60 hands per hour with an average bet of 2 units off the top for cover, then the result is a bit more likely at 5.5%. I did not sim the effect of playing errors, etc.

Also, I am making a further assumption that you keep separate track of tips and do not factor these in as part of your win / loss. I know that some people just lump tips in with their win/loss results, which completes screws up the analysis.

To summarize, if you are using NO COVER and are making NO MISTAKES, then your result is extremely unlikely.

 

[SammyBoy]

Thanks CougFan

Well, I do not track tips separately. I tip very little now but at one time tipped more. I also do not split tens and do often bet 2 units off the top for cover.

I went back this weekend and was able to take some of that money back from them, but I lost it and much more at a few other places. I had the worst run of cards in my life. I could not hit a Double-Down to save my life! It didn't matter how high the count was I could not get a ten, lots of aces on my eleven though.

 

[Card Counter]

Do they deal 7 hands head on?

Is the dealer dealing less than 7 hands when it's just you and the dealer? If so, the dealer isn't dealing far enough into the deck to be profitable. If that's the case, just quit. Also, you need a higher betting ratio.