I Just Can't Lose!

Machinist · Nov 20, 2009

Might i make a suggestion

Miss Deviant i would like to make a small suggestion. I understand you are new at this.
I am even newer....... Heck to put it inperspective i ain't even born yet in the blackjack world.
If there is one thing you need to do in this world , only one , go to the next Bash!!!!
I don't care what you have to do. Beg, borrow , steal your way there.!!!! Hell i think that Daddybo might have a way to get you there fast if you keep talking nice to him. He's a real teddy bear...... LOL Except at the tables, then look out, the chips fly!!!!!!
I am real serious , if you want to grow by leaps , go go go go!!!!! This goes for anyone else. I said this in the original Bash post , i was impressed with the whole lot of people. Professional, honest, and that desire to crush the opposition.!!!
It was a game against the chumps in the suits. When we all took breaks and met back at the Suite it was all about, strategy for the next session. Not about the cocktail waitresses, or college girls, or what ever suits your fancy. It was pure AP BJ. 110%
Well that's my 2 cents. I gotta get back to it.. Sleep for 4 and back in the joint.

Take Care All
Machinist

zengrifter · Nov 20, 2009

Machinist said:

Miss Deviant i would like to make a small suggestion. I understand you are new at this.
I am even newer....... Heck to put it inperspective i ain't even born yet in the blackjack world.
If there is one thing you need to do in this world , only one , go to the next Bash!!!!

I will if she will. zg

creeping panther · Nov 20, 2009

Sd

StandardDeviant said:

Why not do what you did before, you said you were winning??

I do agree with what Machinist had to say,100%.

CP

sagefr0g · Nov 20, 2009

sessions, smessions

StandardDeviant said:

if it was only one hand per session it wouldn't be so unlikely.

and forget that 1% for some session you play be it a hand or thousands of hands.
the reality on a human endurable session by session basis is something we haven't the foggiest clue about, if we don't know how many hands we've played or are going to play.

know how many hands your going to play or how many hands you've played and then you can have an idea of a range of expected results across standard deviations and expected value.

just a question, in those eleven losing sessions, was you ever up at least one unit in any of those sessions? something to think about if you don't like losing sessions, no?
voodoo as it may be, you can have some element of control in the short run, while the long run is what it is going to be over some expected range of results assuming you play consistently with an advantage.

check the chart below for an example of how minutely you can break things down with a sim and a excel chart such as Kasi's spreadsheet.

daddybo · Nov 20, 2009

zengrifter said:

The Grifter at the Bash! Okay, SD the ball is in your court! :laugh:

aslan · Nov 21, 2009

I've had my share of roller coasters! Just when it seems like you can't lose a session, all of a sudden you can't buy a winning shoe. The main thing I have discovered is that if you have sufficient (recommended) bankroll, you won't sweat the roller coaster dips so much. But you will possibly become bored with the large amount of bankroll you need for the small long-run return it yields. The temptation will always be to bet outside your comfort zone (over bet you bankroll), putting yourself in into a high risk of ruin situation. Don't do it.

Currently I am out of bankroll, having poured it into some real estate, so I can be found close to flat betting for the sheer fun of it. Even so, I am always aware of the count, because I can't help counting from the time I sit down until I leave. I have even been known to count in my sleep, cards not sheep. lol True! Sometimes I can't resist betting it up in a positive count, but doing so raises my ROR even higher than my flat betting, as I don't currently have much br to fall back on.

I guess I will break down and start a new bankroll. I think I'm getting "tight" in my old age. lol

StandardDeviant · Nov 21, 2009

Machinist said:

I am sure I would learn a lot at BASH. I'm not sure it would help me with the current problem. After all, BJ is pretty mechanical. There is a correct move for each hand and we make it. The rest is up to the gods and the odds.

StandardDeviant · Nov 21, 2009

sagefr0g said:

A worthwhile point. You are reminding me that the notion of a session is in my mind, when in reality there is only a continuous flow of hands and results. The notion of being "ahead" or "behind" is also relative.

sharonestone · Nov 21, 2009

standarddeviant said:

i am sure i would learn a lot at bash. I'm not sure it would help me with the current problem. After all, bj is pretty mechanical. There is a correct move for each hand and we make it. The rest is up to the gods and the odds.

not

StandardDeviant · Nov 21, 2009

sharonestone said:

Stick to your basic instincts. You were better there.

sharonestone · Nov 21, 2009

StandardDeviant said:

Seriously, A good game of BlackJack is much like a smoothly flowing symphony complete with subtle nuances and meaning (information) that can only be discerned with imagination and creativity but must also be played with feline instincts and cunning.

Machinist · Nov 21, 2009

Ahh how wrong you are

StandardDeviant said:

Absolutely my point of going to the Bash. You will learn and see, touch and feel. After 2 days of being with these people you will not be asking such MECHANICAL QUESTIONS.
You will be at ease with yourself and believe all that you have read. Alot of these guys have been through it , and just to look into their eyes when you talk about such stuff, up and personal, you get that feeling , that assuredness that you are looking for. In my line of work, A Royal Flush at 9/6 JB will hit roughly every 40,000 hands. Not uncommon to go 5 Cycles, ie 200,000 hands . Very unlikely but not at all uncommon. At 800 hands an hour you do the math, how long you might be in agony!!!! Also there is a loss rate of 100.00 an hour at 1 dollar VP, single line. Every hour a hundred gone until you hit that GLORIOUS ROYAL. You can read all you want about playing VP. You can see all the stats on it. BUT until you feel a 10 or 15 thousand dollars swing, you really have not idea of how you will react to it. Been there, its not fun the first second or even third time. But after a while , eh that's just the way it is.
Have the recommended bankroll and do the job!!!! Plain and simple.
Never deviate Miss Deviant. I remember doing the jump from quarter plays to dollars and then to 5 dollars stuff. It was horrible doing the jumps , after you get out of your comfort zone.
Enough babbling , i will end up just chasing my tail.. LOL

Take Care all

Machinist

StandardDeviant · Nov 21, 2009

sharonestone said:

Very interesting point and I agree with you. The mechanics of the game are only the beginning. That said, I think there is still an element of the game that runs itself and one either wins or loses as a result. For example, take T,T v. 4 with a TC+1. So I stand, and the dealer turns over a 7 and then draws a 10 herself. No big deal, right? Well, when I lose 7 out 10 such hands when the odds are 66% in my favor, it starts to wear me down. Then there are the 21s that end up a push. Then there was the dealer who dealt himself 7 BJs in a row. Then...

I'd like to think that in those situations there is some missing element in my game, some technique I am lacking that would change the outcome. For the life of me I don't know what that is - other than increasing my emotional ability to deal with sustained losses. And for that, school is in session for me.

Deathangl13 · Nov 21, 2009

StandardDeviant said:

I've noticed sometimes I lose more when the count is positive than neg... I was back-counting a high roller table tonight (just practice) and as soon as the running count went -3 on a 6-deck shoe with about 30% pen, the guy got two 21's, a couple 19's and finally a blackjack.... As the count went positive all the way to the cut card, he was getting his ass handed to him.... Why does that happen?

Deathangl13 · Nov 21, 2009

StandardDeviant said:

Sounds like a really... really bad shuffle....

If the cards were indeed random we would RARELY see solid ten-clumps. And yet, we see them nearly every day; often every shoe. Tens are dealer-breaking cards. When tens are overly-clumped, two things happen:

1. They often get cut out of play, ending up behind the shuffle card;

2. They end up clumped together creating two-ten-pushes with the dealer;
in which case they may as well have not been there at all.

Deathangl13 · Nov 21, 2009

Random and Non-Random Games Compared

RANDOM

NON-RANDOM CARDS

Average Dealer Total = 18.23

Average Dealer Total = 19.10

Average Dealer Break = 28.3%

Average Dealer Break = 20.2%

Average Dealer Hand = 2.7 Cards

Average Dealer Hand = 3.5 Cards

Average Maximum Dealer Cards = 4

= 6

Dealer Breaks with an Ace 13% of time

6% of time

13 Rounds/Shoe (at 75% Penetration)

11 Rounds/Shoe

Basic Strategy Hands-Won-Ratio = 48.5%

42.3%

Dealer-favorable rounds = 50%

70%

Naturals (BJ's) occur 1 in 21 hands

1 in 30 hands (approx.)

BJ's Push w/Dealer 1 in 441 hands

1 in 20 hands (approx.)

StandardDeviant · Nov 21, 2009

Machinist said:

In the final analysis, it does come down to that, doesn't it?!

Well I'm off to you-know-where to play a bit now. Thanks to you and everyone for the kind words and encouragement. We'll see how it goes.

creeping panther · Nov 21, 2009

Sharon

sharonestone said:

I remember playing with you at the BASH, and I invited you to join this site, you have took your name most likely because I told you that you look just like a young Sharon Stone. You are indeed very beautiful and a righteous BJ player, all the men certainly found you irresistable, especially Lonesome Gambler who had a thing for those handcuffs you had

:grin::laugh:

Nice to see you posting, "Sharon Stone". (You are the essence of femininity).

As Always,
CP

aslan · Nov 21, 2009

sharonestone said:

Seriously, A good game of BlackJack is much like a smoothly flowing symphony complete with subtle nuances and meaning (information) that can only be discerned with imagination and creativity but must also be played with feline instincts and cunning.

Oy vey!

aslan · Nov 21, 2009

Machinist said:

The secret is staying within your comfort zone. I find that with the appropriate bankroll, I am always within my comfort zone. I suspect, if someone is uncomfortable, they have established a bankroll that they really cannot afford to lose. Never include money in a bankroll that you cannot afford to lose.

If you are betting money you cannot afford to lose, money that would alter your lifestyle if lost, then you are gambling in the worst sense of the word. The whole idea of counting for me is to avoid gambling. But some use it to mask their penchant for gambling.

Decide. Do I want to be a gambler or do I want to be an advantage player. To straddle the two is fraught with peril. Then again, if you're a gambler, you might enjoy that. But don't come crying here that you did all the right things and lost a bundle (like I have been known to do). lol

The road of experience to knowledge is a winding, dangerous road, or you can just believe those who have gone before you. Try for the latter. Caution: the roller coaster emotions that you will experience if you bet outside your comfort zone may be dangerous to your health.

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