I wouldn't feel so bad if I just lost...

Discussion in 'General' started by phantom, Dec 4, 2011.

  1. phantom

    phantom Member

    If I just lost from the start of my trip till the end consistently, I wouldn't feel so bad. It seems like ever 3 day trip I take I do really good the first 2 days. I'm ahead several hundred dollars and I think, "Hey, I'm pretty good at this." Visions of being a career blackjack player come into head.

    Then on the last day it seems like every dealer I play gets unbelievable hands over and and over. I end up losing all my profit. I usually stop at that point so it's not like I'm behind for the year. In fact I'm a little bit ahead. If you count all the free rooms and food I'm way ahead. But still, it really hurts to be ahead every trip and then lose most of it back on the last day.

    The last day I played this time I played about 1 1/2 hours before I was dealt a 20 and then I pushed. I mean, that's a long time to not get a blackjack, but a 20. :confused:
  2. paymypush

    paymypush Well-Known Member

    Is it possible that you became emboldened by your wins on the first two days and took more risks on the final day? If it happens on every trip it may be more than lucky dealers.

    How negative were the counts not to be dealt a 20 for 100 plus hands?
  3. phantom

    phantom Member

    I doubt if it was 100 hands. Probably more like 50 or 60. Double deck and slow dealers most of the time. The count never got very negative. Other people at the table were getting plenty of 20s and blackjacks. I got so many 14s, I thought about betting it on the roulette wheel.
  4. blackjack avenger

    blackjack avenger Well-Known Member


    All play is continuous, sessions are just artificial breaks.

    You should know the variance possibilities, should not be shocked.

    Perception of events can be wrong.

    Are you playing consistently?

    Fatigue & errors possible?

    Betting beyond your "cry uncle" point? For this to bother you?
  5. zengrifter

    zengrifter Banned

    Common and to be expected. You should have extended your stay.
  6. blackjack avenger

    blackjack avenger Well-Known Member

    even better

    Play 2 days
    Go home
    Come back for 2 days

  7. aslan

    aslan Well-Known Member

    What I have found is that the longer I play, the more apt I am to make mistakes. But the OP was talking about separate days-- I've never had that problem. But on the same day, I usually begin with a nice win. After 4 hours, however, I tend to give a lot of it back owing, I think, to fatigue, impatience, overbetting, poor judgment, mistakes, etc. So what I do now is plan to play for about 4 hours, then catch a show, or dinner, or watch a ball game. By not hurrying my time in the casinos and by only playing when I am well rested, I find that I win much more overall. So it doesn't boil down to just hours, it boils down to quality hours. I know that is probably stating the obvious, but it took me a while to catch on to how I was sabotaging my own game. YMMV.
  8. pogostick

    pogostick Well-Known Member

    Phatom , Im laughing not at you but with you . I think we can all relate to your story at one time. Better luck next time. Pogo
  9. Gamblor

    Gamblor Well-Known Member

    Sounds like my last few extended trips to AC. Even or up the first couple of days, then lose it the last. As aslan mentioned, have thought to myself if fatigue and a lack of enthusiasm on the last day has something to do with it.
  10. Sucker

    Sucker Well-Known Member

    EVERY SINGLE ONE OF US goes through this, over and over. You have two choices - Get used to it, or quit playing BJ forever.

    I've been playing BJ for a living for 30 years, and I STILL haven't completely gotten used to it. :(

    BTW; it gets much worse than THIS - the only thing worse than losing is losing and out of action, due to getting barred or other reasons.:eek:
  11. aslan

    aslan Well-Known Member

    Yup! I'm having the gambler's fallacy in reverse. I have won so many sessions in a row that I am beginning to feel like I am due for a big loss or series of losses. They usually strike when I am not looking. This will be the first time they don't catch me just a little by surprise... unless I let my guard down and fall asleep again. :laugh: But you can't stop it anyway. All you can do is stretch it out over a longer period of time, but when negative variance comes, it does not honor stop losses and other strategies-- it just comes and does its dirty deed.
  12. sagefr0g

    sagefr0g Well-Known Member

    yup it's a real pain in the A$$ for sure, variance and the ever threat of it.
    i'll change the wording just a bit, but what i've been told when i've wimpered about variance was "Now pull the trigger ya chicken ****.....!!!! It's called a fluctuation.....get used to it!!!!!!! Geeze "

    ........ so i do that, even though i oft times, over & over again, don't wanna do that, i take a deep breath and pull the friggin trigger, lol.
    hate that, lol, but what yah gonna do, do it & over time and plays, despite yer fear, low and behold there is money to be made.
    and one thing i've found to be consoling, is maybe after a sound thrashing, is to pause and reflect on just how much loot has been accrued over the years, doing just that, pulling the friggin trigger when the time is right.:rolleyes:
  13. kewljason

    kewljason Well-Known Member

    Variance is a bitch! But also our best friend. :) With out variance, half the BJ players in the casino would be counters. If you think the casino's don't offer a decent game now, imagine what would happen if that were the case. :eek: Did I mention variance is a bitch! :confused:
  14. aslan

    aslan Well-Known Member

    I have offered one of my gambling buddies some free and easy lessons in card counting, but although he sees the logic of it, he is convinced that he can do just as well or better trusting in his native instincts. He does seem to do exceedingly well employing the gambler's fallacy and his other "gambling instincts." Of course, I will never know if he has been hiding or understating his losses. As a rule, he seems to win, perhaps owing to a long enough bankroll to weather variance. But still, as an almost perfect bs player, he should be showing a long term net loss. My purpose of telling this story is to question whether it is variance that is keeping players from counting, or, as in his case, an unfounded confidence in their own native abilities. It's the same story I find in poker players: every one of them will tell you how good they are and attribute any losses to some unlucky event that Stu Unger or Doyle Brunson could not have played their way out of.
  15. phantom

    phantom Member

    I always feel better after reading this forum and in a couple of days I'm planning my next trip to the casinos. At least last time I did pay for the gas and got 3 days and 8 meals free. ;)
  16. Friendo

    Friendo Well-Known Member

    Were it not for variance, non-counting and non-basic strategy players would lose every time, and blackjack would not exist at all.

    The huge variance makes it possible for casual or addicted gamblers to convince themselves that they can beat, or are beating, this game, for weeks or months.

    Have you visited the same casino on three different shifts, and witnessed the same person sitting there, playing a weak game, and winning!
  17. BrianCP

    BrianCP Well-Known Member

    Speaking of variance as a friend, I finally saw the good side of him! I'm running some sims using the basic strategy trainer while using Hi-Lo lite indices and a 1-16 spread on a H17 6 deck game. I'm starting off the top of a shoe and wonging out at TC -1.

    I'm starting my 14th shoe and down 55.5 units (277.5 dollars for me). When the count had gone up in earlier shoes, I just couldn't win a hand. More of the same really, the hand held sim (just dealing 4 spots of a 6 deck h17 game and wonging in at a TC of +1) lost a lot of units when I stopped (not nearly long enough for long run, but just practicing while keeping track).

    The count finally starts going up and I continue my losing streak while betting more. After it goes up the 2nd time, something new happens. I start getting dealt good hands against dealer stiffs....and the dealer is actually busting! The count isn't even going down and I'm winning, I couldn't believe it! For about the last 5 hands of the shoe, I had my max bet out and didn't lose once.

    After the shuffle, I added up the units. I'm now up 80 units. That was a positive swing of 135.5 units in one shoe. If I had been breaking even up until then, I would've made 677.5 dollars.

    I just had to post this, as this is the first run of positive variance I've had (even just non negative variance) since I've started practicing while keeping track of the theoretical units won or lost.
  18. Most Interesting Man

    Most Interesting Man Well-Known Member

    Just remember this generality. The larger your expected win, the larger the variance you will usually experience.
  19. Gamblor

    Gamblor Well-Known Member

    Ah feels like a gypsy curse when going through negative variance, hand after hand of seemingly absurd losses with big bets out.

    Good thing is it feels like the universe is aligned and in perfect order when going through + variance, dealer busting hand after hand, shooting up 100+ units in a shoe or two.

    Both feel unnatural and surreal, but for some reason +variance streaks feels more surreal than -variance streak. I guess I'm kind of used to -variance, but the +variance still seems strange and unreal.

    Actually the weirdest streaks I had was going almost 10 sessions without losing or winning much, now that's weird :)
  20. blackjack avenger

    blackjack avenger Well-Known Member

    point in time

    If one is ahead, variance should not bother one to much

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