IBA vs TBA

[assume_R]

I will have to spend some time running sims to confirm my theory, but perhaps some of you already know the answer.

What I'm wondering is the difference between the Initial Betting Advantage IBA (how much of an advantage you're calculated to have when you place your bet) versus True Betting Advantage TBA (how much of an advantage you actually had for that hand).

My idea is that holding everything else constant, with more people at the table, the more different these will be. This is based on the fact that with more people at the table, more cards can be used up, and the count can change much more from when you initially placed your bet as compared to if you were just playing heads up.

So that would mean (assuming an equal number of hands per hour) that to be more accurate when you place your bet, you'd want to play heads up, and to be more accurate making index plays, you'd want more people at the table.

Correct? Incorrect? Thoughts?

 

[k_c]

I will have to spend some time running sims to confirm my theory, but perhaps some of you already know the answer.

What I'm wondering is the difference between the Initial Betting Advantage IBA (how much of an advantage you're calculated to have when you place your bet) versus True Betting Advantage TBA (how much of an advantage you actually had for that hand).

My idea is that holding everything else constant, with more people at the table, the more different these will be. This is based on the fact that with more people at the table, more cards can be used up, and the count can change much more from when you initially placed your bet as compared to if you were just playing heads up.

So that would mean (assuming an equal number of hands per hour) that to be more accurate when you place your bet, you'd want to play heads up, and to be more accurate making index plays, you'd want more people at the table.

Correct? Incorrect? Thoughts?

Problem could be viewed like this:

Assume you are playing along with 5 other players.
Assume none of other players' cards are shown to you, including any card that causes another player to bust.
This is just the same as if you were heads up versus dealer. It doesn't matter if the unseen cards are on the table or are in the shoe. They are still unseen.

Any extra cards that you do happen to see give you more information to possibly play your hand better. The extra cards that you do see may change the EV of your hand but since at this point you cannot legally change your bet you'll just have to settle for possibly playing the hand better than if no additional information was available.

Relative to the initial bet any extra information should slightly increase EV in the long run.

 

[assume_R]

Any extra cards that you do happen to see give you more information to possibly play your hand better. The extra cards that you do see may change the EV of your hand but since at this point you cannot legally change your bet you'll just have to settle for possibly playing the hand better than if no additional information was available.

Relative to the initial bet any extra information should slightly increase EV in the long run.

Right, but then there'd be less hands for you from the shoe, which means that if shuffle time was negligible this would be worth it to play with others and see their cards (such as with ASM's) but with some sort of significant shuffle time it wouldn't be worth it. There would be some sort of cutoff value if I'm intuiting it right.

 

[UK-21]

So that would mean (assuming an equal number of hands per hour) that to be more accurate when you place your bet, you'd want to play heads up, and to be more accurate making index plays, you'd want more people at the table.

Correct? Incorrect? Thoughts?

All advantages are assumed as they are calculated on averages. You don't know what cards will be dealt in the next round, and in what order. If the cutoff card comes out and the RC is still +16, then it's likely you assumed an advantage in earlier hands when in fact none existed - you haven't had an advantage as none of those additional high cards would ever have come into play.

As to the above - if you play at 3rd and there are six other players in front of you, then by the time it's your turn the count you've based your bet on could have plummeted. On the other hand it could have gone up, and you may have a higher chance of hitting a high card than when you placed your bet. As to index play deviations, these are played based on the snapshot at the time and are again based on an assumed advantage/disadvantage. I can't see how the number of players at the table will affect if you should make a BS deviation or it's assumed value.

The more you play the greater the prospects of the averages evening out.

Hope that's as clear as mud?

 

[k_c]

Right, but then there'd be less hands for you from the shoe, which means that if shuffle time was negligible this would be worth it to play with others and see their cards (such as with ASM's) but with some sort of significant shuffle time it wouldn't be worth it. There would be some sort of cutoff value if I'm intuiting it right.

In my opinion a main disadvantage in playing with numerous players is that a shoe's positive EV shoe composition fluctuations cannot be fully exploited.

Take an (unrealistic) extreme example just for illustraion. Suppose you're playing an 8 deck shoe with 100 other players. On average each player's hand uses about 2.7 cards, so 1 round will use about 270 cards. As those 270 cards are dealt some favorable compositions as defined by your count could appear but since they would occur in the middle of a round a player couldn't take advantage of them by increasing the bet.

You're right that numerous players will cause more shuffle time though as well as reduced positive EV bet spread opportunities.

 

[assume_R]

Thanks UK and KC.

by the time it's your turn the count you've based your bet on could have plummeted. On the other hand it could have gone up

So wouldn't that mean that TBA and IBA should average out to be equal (since there's an equal chance the TBA could have increased or decreased from the IBA)? I was under the impression they don't always average to being equal, and I was trying to determine when/why this occurs.

 

[FLASH1296]

"to be more accurate when you place your bet, you'd want to play heads up, and to be more accurate making index plays, you'd want more people at the table."

You posit two hypotheses here.

The first I agree with. It is a tautology.
The second has very little value.
Factor #2 is extremely negligible
and more than negated by #1

There are no circumstances when playing with a crowd is better than playing solo.